Suppose UK voters accept the Alternative Vote in the May referendum… but then don’t use AV to signal multiple party preferences?

Most of the discussion of the AV referendum assumes that if UK voters endorse changing the voting system, they will be eager to vote 1, 2 3, 4 etc to express support for several or multiple parties. But Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have their doubts. Reviewing the evidence from Queensland, which uses the same system as the proposed UK alternative vote, they believe that many voters will treat an AV election as just like ‘first past the post’, and not cast (or perhaps over time stop casting) multiple preferences

Electoral bias at the 2015 general election: reducing Labour’s electoral advantage

Electoral bias results in an asymmetrical seat distribution between parties with similar vote shares. Over recent British general elections Labour held an advantage because it efficiently converted votes into seats. Following the 2015 election result this advantage has reduced considerably, principally because Labour’s vote distribution saw it accumulate more ineffective votes, particularly where electoral support was not converted into seats. By contrast, the vote distribution of the Conservative party is now superior to that of Labour because it acquired fewer wasted votes although Labour retains a modest advantage overall because it benefits from inequalities in electorate size and differences in voter turnout. Features of the 2015 election, however, raise general methodological challenges for decomposing electoral bias. The analysis, therefore, considers the effect of substituting the Liberal Democrats as the third party with the United Kingdom Independence Party. It also examines the outcome in Scotland separately from that in England and Wales. Following this analysis it becomes clear that the method for decomposing electoral bias requires clearer guidelines for its application in specific settings

'Just Another Expensive Talking Shop': Public Attitudes and the 2004 Regional Assembly Referendum in the North East of England

Rallings C. and Thrasher M. (2006) 'Just another expensive talking shop': public attitudes and the 2004 Regional Assembly Referendum in the North East of England, Regional Studies 40, 927-936. Electors in the North East of England voted overwhelmingly in November 2004 against the establishment of an elected regional assembly. All parts of the region, every type of elector, and supporters of all major political parties were opposed to the new institution. Although most people thought the region was disadvantaged compared with other parts of Great Britain, few believed an assembly would have a positive impact on this or any other public concern. Supporters of the assembly were additionally handicapped by the perception that their campaign was less effective than that mounted by the 'No' side. The results of the referendum, and the accompanying attitudes, have removed elected regional assemblies from the policy agenda for the foreseeable future. Rallings C. et Thrasher M. (2006) 'Tout simplement, c'est un lieu de parlottes': les opinions du grand public et le referendum de 2004 sur l'Assemblee regionale dans le nord-est de l'Angleterre, Regional Studies 40, 927-936. Au mois de novembre, 2004, les electeurs dans le nord-est de l'Angleterre ont vote a une majorite ecrasante contre l'etablissement d'une Assemblee regionale elue au suffrage universel. Tous les coins de la region, tout electeur, et les partisans de tous les principaux partis politiques, y furent contre. Bien que la plupart des gens ont considere la region comme defavorisee par rapport au reste de la Grande-Bretagne, peu nombreux etaient ceux qui croyaient que la constitution d'une Assemblee aurait un effet positif sur cette ou n'importe quelle autre question. Les partisans de l'Assemblee furent davantage desavantages dans la mesure ou leur campagne etait percue comme moins efficace que celle lancee par les 'voix contre'. Les resultats du referendum, et les opinions qui en decoulaient, ont reussi a rayer les Assemblees regionales elues au suffrage universel de la liste des priorites politiques dans l'immediat. Assemblees elues au suffrage universel Opinions du grand public Referendum Gouvernance regionale Rallings C. und Thrasher M. (2006) 'Nichts als eine weitere teure Quasselbude': die offentliche Meinung und die Volksabstimmung von 2004 zur Regionalversammlung im Nordosten Englands, Regional Studies 40, 927-936. Im November 2004 stimmten die Wahlberechtigten im Nordosten Englands mit uberwaltigender Mehrheit gegen die Einrichtung einer gewahlten Regionalversammlung. Gegen die neue Institution sprachen sich alle Teile der Region, alle Arten von Wahlern und die Anhanger samtlicher grosser politischer Parteien aus. Zwar bezeichneten die meisten ihre Region gegenuber anderen Teilen Grossbritanniens als benachteiligt, doch nur wenige glaubten, dass eine Versammlung darauf oder auf andere offentliche Probleme einen positiven Einfluss ausuben wurde. Eine weiterer Nachteil fur die Befurworter der Versammlung bestand darin, dass ihre Kampagne als weniger schlagkraftig wahrgenommen wurde als die Kampagne der Gegenseite. Die Ergebnisse der Volksabstimmung und die damit einhergehenden Einstellungen haben das Thema der gewahlten Regionalversammlungen fur die absehbare Zukunft von der politischen Tagesordnung verschwinden lassen. Gewahlte Versammlungen Offentliche Meinung Volksabstimmungen Regionalregierung Rallings C. y Thrasher M. (2006) 'Tan solo otro costosa jaula de grillos': actitudes publicas y el plebiscito de 2004 sobre la Asamblea Regional en el noreste de Inglaterra, Regional Studies 40, 927-936. En noviembre de 2004 los electores del noreste de Inglaterra votaron por aplastante mayoria contra el establecimiento de una Asamblea Regional elegida. Todos los rincones de la region, todo tipo de elector y los partidarios de todos los principales partidos politicos votaron en contra de esta nueva institucion. Aunque la mayoria de la gente piensa que la region estaba en desventaja, si se la compara con otras partes de Gran Bretana, pocos creian que una Asamblea tendria un impacto positivo en esta materia o en cualquier otro asunto publico. Los partidarios de la Asamblea se toparon con otros obstaculos puesto que se juzgaba que su campana era menos eficaz que la que se monto en el lado del “No”. Los resultados del plebiscito y la actitudes que lo acompanaban han eliminado de la agenda politica la posibilidad de una Asamblea Regional elegida en un futuro previsible. Asambleas elegidas Actitudes publicas Plebiscitos Gobierno regionalReferendums, Regional government, Public attitudes, Elected assemblies,