New risks and opportunities for food security: scenario analyses for 2015 and 2050

"Given the number of undernourished people in the developing world and the increasingly complex risks to food security, policymakers are faced with an enormous agenda. Freeing people from hunger will require more and better-targeted investments, innovations, and policy actions, driven by a keen understanding of the dynamic risks and forces that shape the factors affecting people's access to food and the links with nutrition. The International Food Policy Research Institute's (IFPRI's) International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) provides insight into the management of these risks through appropriate policy actions. By projecting future global food scenarios to 2050, IMPACT explores the potential implications of policy action and inaction in several main risk areas as well as the effects on child malnutrition in the developing world, commodity prices, demand, cereal yields, production, and net trade. In the progressive policy actions scenario, which assumes increased investment in rural development, health, education, and agricultural research and development, developing country governments and the international community are able to dramatically reduce the number of food-insecure people, leading to a worldwide decline in hunger. Under these conditions, Latin America and China are able to virtually eliminate child malnutrition by 2050. Bolstered by the development and dissemination of improved technologies and better infrastructure, crop production and yields increase in developing countries. Notably, the bulk of the growth in production is driven by yield increases rather than by expanding land area. Spurred by growth in the agricultural sector, average incomes in developing countries increase. Rising incomes bolster demand for high-value agricultural products, such as meat, dairy, and fruits and vegetables; global livestock production more than doubles, for example. Average per capita calorie supplies for developing countries exceed 3,400 per day, well in excess of minimum requirements. The policy failure scenario assumes greater political discord and more extensive agricultural protectionism, together with the failure of policies to deal with food emergencies related to conflict. Slow growth and trade restrictions lead to stagnation in average per capita calorie availability, which remains only slightly above minimum requirements until after 2030, when availability increases. In addition, crucial investments in agriculture, rural development, and poverty reduction are forgone or displaced. Because of limited investment in agricultural research and technology, this scenario has a high level of crop area expansion as a result of relatively rapid population growth and slim yield improvements in developing countries. This scenario also results in flat maize prices, declining per capita cereal demand, falling beef prices, and relatively flat meat demand. As a result of the policies in this scenario, the number of malnourished children in developing countries rises between 1997 and 2015, after which there are only modest declines. In the technology and natural resource management failure scenario, yield growth falls even more than under the preceding scenario, forcing farmers to move into marginal producing areas, which causes a more rapid expansion of cereal area into less productive land that does not compensate for the yield shortfalls (and causes environmental degradation). As a result, cereal prices rise substantially through 2030 and then fall off only gradually. Beef and other meat prices, which are affected by the price of feed, follow a similar pattern. Developing-country per capita calorie availability is essentially unchanged over 1997–2050 and remains at a barely adequate average level. Given unequal access to the food that is available, millions of people actually consume less than the minimum. The occurrence of child undernourishment is even higher than under the policy failure scenario in all developing-country regions. Overall, the technology and natural resource management failure scenario results in the worst impact on food security and child malnourishment in the developing world. The progressive policy scenario outlines several of the most crucial positive steps. National governments and the international community must assume a new focus on agricultural growth and rural development, along with increasing their investments in education, social services, and health. Policies to encourage synergistic growth in the nonfarm sectors are also needed to spur broad-based economic growth. Underpinning these strategies and research agendas must be a firm commitment to reducing hunger and improving the welfare of the world's undernourished people." From Authors' Executive SummaryImpact model, Caloric intake, Safety nets,

Perfectionism and self-conscious emotions in British and Japanese students: Predicting pride and embarrassment after success and failure

Regarding self-conscious emotions, studies have shown that different forms of perfectionism show different relationships with pride, shame, and embarrassment depending on success and failure. What is unknown is whether these relationships also show cultural variations. Therefore, we conducted a study investigating how self-oriented and socially prescribed perfectionism predicted pride and embarrassment after success and failure comparing 363 British and 352 Japanese students. Students were asked to respond to a set of scenarios where they imagined achieving either perfect (success) or flawed results (failure). In both British and Japanese students, self-oriented perfectionism positively predicted pride after success and embarrassment after failure whereas socially prescribed perfectionism predicted embarrassment after success and failure. Moreover, in Japanese students, socially prescribed perfectionism positively predicted pride after success and self-oriented perfectionism negatively predicted pride after failure. The findings have implications for our understanding of perfectionism indicating that the perfectionism–pride relationship not only varies between perfectionism dimensions, but may also show cultural variations

K_S\rightarrow \gamma\gamma , K_L\rightarrow\pi^0\gamma\gamma$ and Unitarity

Agreement between the experimental value $\Gamma (K_S\rightarrow \gamma\gamma)$ and the number predicted via a one-loop chiral perturbation theory calculation has been cited as a success for the latter. On the other hand the one-loop prediction for the closely related process $K_L\rightarrow \pi^0\gamma\gamma$ has been found to be a factor three below the experimental value. Using the inputs of unitarity and dispersion relations, we demonstrate the importance of higher order loop effects to both of these processes.Comment: 20 pages (4 figures available on request), UMHEP-39

Island nucleation in the presence of step edge barriers: Theory and applications

We develop a theory of nucleation on top of two-dimensional islands bordered by steps with an additional energy barrier $\Delta E_S$ for descending atoms. The theory is based on the concept of the residence time of an adatom on the island,and yields an expression for the nucleation rate which becomes exact in the limit of strong step edge barriers. This expression differs qualitatively and quantitatively from that obtained using the conventional rate equation approach to nucleation [J. Tersoff et al., Phys. Rev. Lett.72, 266 (1994)]. We argue that rate equation theory fails because nucleation is dominated by the rare instances when two atoms are present on the island simultaneously. The theory is applied to two distinct problems: The onset of second layer nucleation in submonolayer growth, and the distribution of the sizes of top terraces of multilayer mounds under conditions of strong step edge barriers. Application to homoepitaxial growth on Pt(111) yields the estimate $\Delta E_S \geq 0.33$ eV for the additional energy barrier at CO-decorated steps.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figure

Particle acceleration by magnetic reconnection in geospace

Particles are accelerated to very high, non-thermal energies during explosive energy-release phenomena in space, solar, and astrophysical plasma environments. While it has been established that magnetic reconnection plays an important role in the dynamics of Earth's magnetosphere, it remains unclear how magnetic reconnection can further explain particle acceleration to non-thermal energies. Here we review recent progress in our understanding of particle acceleration by magnetic reconnection in Earth's magnetosphere. With improved resolutions, recent spacecraft missions have enabled detailed studies of particle acceleration at various structures such as the diffusion region, separatrix, jets, magnetic islands (flux ropes), and dipolarization front. With the guiding-center approximation of particle motion, many studies have discussed the relative importance of the parallel electric field as well as the Fermi and betatron effects. However, in order to fully understand the particle acceleration mechanism and further compare with particle acceleration in solar and astrophysical plasma environments, there is a need for further investigation of, for example, energy partition and the precise role of turbulence.Comment: Submitted to Space Science Review

Cultural Influences in the Processing of Emotion Schemas Related to Death and Violence: A Pilot Study

Culture is a key element in determining emotions that people experience when facing death. Recent studies revealed a specific emotion schema for the affective response to death (in comparison with unpleasant/violence-related stimulus), influenced by differences in the personalities and learning processes of the individuals, on the one hand, and differences in the cultural and social contexts of the two groups, on the other. The objective of the research was to compare the English participants’ affective response to pictures of death to those of the Spanish participants, who viewed other types of affective pictures (pleasant, unpleasant/violence-related and neutral). A total of 38 young adults took part in an emotional assessment using a set of pictures from the International Affective Picture System (IAPS) database. They indicated the values of valence, arousal and dominance for each affective image. The results show that the images related to death were less unpleasant and caused a lower activation in the English population, while there were no differences in the two group’s responses to unpleasant/violent images

Multidimensional sexual perfectionism and female sexual function: A longitudinal investigation

Research on multidimensional sexual perfectionism differentiates four forms of sexual perfectionism: self-oriented, partner-oriented, partner-prescribed, and socially prescribed. Self-oriented sexual perfectionism reflects perfectionistic standards people apply to themselves as sexual partners; partner-oriented sexual perfectionism reflects perfectionistic standards people apply to their sexual partner; partner-prescribed sexual perfectionism reflects people’s beliefs that their sexual partner imposes perfectionistic standards on them; and socially prescribed sexual perfectionism reflects people’s beliefs that society imposes such standards on them. Previous studies found partner-prescribed and socially prescribed sexual perfectionism to be maladaptive forms of sexual perfectionism associated with a negative sexual self-concept and problematic sexual behaviors, but only examined cross-sectional relationships. The present article presents the first longitudinal study examining whether multidimensional sexual perfectionism predicts changes in sexual self-concept and sexual function over time. A total of 366 women aged 17-69 years completed measures of multidimensional sexual perfectionism, sexual esteem, sexual anxiety, sexual problem self-blame, and female sexual function (cross-sectional data). Three to six months later, 164 of the women completed the same measures again (longitudinal data). Across analyses, partner-prescribed sexual perfectionism emerged as the most maladaptive form of sexual perfectionism. In the cross-sectional data, partner-prescribed sexual perfectionism showed positive relationships with sexual anxiety, sexual problem self-blame, and intercourse pain and negative relationships with sexual esteem, desire, arousal, lubrication, and orgasmic function. In the longitudinal data, partner-prescribed sexual perfectionism predicted increases in sexual anxiety and decreases in sexual esteem, arousal, and lubrication over time. The findings suggest that partner-prescribed sexual perfectionism contributes to women’s negative sexual self-concept and female sexual dysfunction

Near-Earth plasma sheet boundary dynamics during substorm dipolarization.

We report on the large-scale evolution of dipolarization in the near-Earth plasma sheet during an intense (AL ~ -1000 nT) substorm on August 10, 2016, when multiple spacecraft at radial distances between 4 and 15 R E were present in the night-side magnetosphere. This global dipolarization consisted of multiple short-timescale (a couple of minutes) B z disturbances detected by spacecraft distributed over 9 MLT, consistent with the large-scale substorm current wedge observed by ground-based magnetometers. The four spacecraft of the Magnetospheric Multiscale were located in the southern hemisphere plasma sheet and observed fast flow disturbances associated with this dipolarization. The high-time-resolution measurements from MMS enable us to detect the rapid motion of the field structures and flow disturbances separately. A distinct pattern of the flow and field disturbance near the plasma boundaries was found. We suggest that a vortex motion created around the localized flows resulted in another field-aligned current system at the off-equatorial side of the BBF-associated R1/R2 systems, as was predicted by the MHD simulation of a localized reconnection jet. The observations by GOES and Geotail, which were located in the opposite hemisphere and local time, support this view. We demonstrate that the processes of both Earthward flow braking and of accumulated magnetic flux evolving tailward also control the dynamics in the boundary region of the near-Earth plasma sheet.Graphical AbstractMultispacecraft observations of dipolarization (left panel). Magnetic field component normal to the current sheet (BZ) observed in the night side magnetosphere are plotted from post-midnight to premidnight region: a GOES 13, b Van Allen Probe-A, c GOES 14, d GOES 15, e MMS3, g Geotail, h Cluster 1, together with f a combined product of energy spectra of electrons from MMS1 and MMS3 and i auroral electrojet indices. Spacecraft location in the GSM X-Y plane (upper right panel). Colorcoded By disturbances around the reconnection jets from the MHD simulation of the reconnection by Birn and Hesse (1996) (lower right panel). MMS and GOES 14-15 observed disturbances similar to those at the location indicated by arrows

Sensors in the stream: the high-frequency wave of the present

New scientific understanding is catalysed by novel technologies that enhance measurement precision, resolution or type, and that provide new tools to test and develop theory. Over the last 50 years, technology has transformed the hydrologic sciences by enabling direct measurements of watershed fluxes (evapotranspiration, streamflow) at time scales and spatial extents aligned with variation in physical drivers. High frequency water quality measurements, increasingly obtained by in-situ water quality sensors, are extending that transformation. Widely available sensors for some physical (temperature) and chemical (conductivity, dissolved oxygen) attributes have become integral to aquatic science, and emerging sensors for nutrients, dissolved CO2, turbidity, algal pigments, and dissolved organic matter are now enabling observations of watersheds and streams at timescales commensurate with their fundamental hydrological, energetic, elemental, and biological drivers. Here we synthesize insights from emerging technologies across a suite of applications, and envision future advances, enabled by sensors, in our ability to understand, predict, and restore watershed and stream systems