A Review of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Consensus: An Econometric Forecast Based on the ARIMA Model of Paleoclimate Series

This paper projects a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compares it to the prevailing consensus using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process Model (ARIMA). The parameter estimates of the model were below that established by the anthropogenic experts and governmental organs, such as the IPCC (UN) over a 100-year scenario. Results from the ARIMA model suggest a current period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling. The results from this study add a statistical element of paleoclimate to the debate that contradicts the current scientific consensus

The burden of physical inactivity for the public health care system in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To update the estimated cost of physical inactivity for the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS). METHODS: The hospitalization costs were accessed via a database of the Ministry of Health – Informatics Department of the Brazilian SUS. Physical inactivity for the year 2017 was accessed via the Sistema de Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas por Inquérito Telefônico (Vigitel – Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey). Seven chronic non-communicable diseases (NCD) were selected via the international classification of disease (ICD-10). The population fraction attributable to physical inactivity was calculated based on relative risk reported in previous studies and the prevalence of physical inactivity. RESULTS: In 2017, the seven NCD considered in the analysis were responsible for 154,017 hospital admissions in adults older than 40 years old, residing in the state capitals and the Federal District, which corresponded to 6.5% of hospitalizations and 10.6% of SUS costs at an estimated US$112,524,914.47. Considering the group of individuals with insufficient physical activity in their leisure time, the percentage cost attributed to physical inactivity reached 17.4$ 482 million, from which 17.4%, US$ 83 million were attributed to physical inactivity. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence to conclude that physical inactivity exerts an economic impact on the SUS due to NCD hospitalization. Physical inactivity is a modifiable lifestyle and compelling evidence, including that of this article, supports the promotion of a more active community as one of the major targets of public health care policies

URIC ACID LEVELS CORRELATES WITH INFLAMMATORY MARKERS AND ADHESION MOLECULES IN HEMODIALYSIS PATIENTS

Elevated serum uric acid has been associated to a variety of cardiovascular disease states and with systemic inflammation. The aim of this study was to analyze the association between uric acid levels and inflammatory markers in hemodialysis (HD) patients. This cross-sectional study included 50HD patients (62% men, 54.3±12.6 yrs, BMI 24.4±4Kg/m2) and 21 healthy individuals (45% men, 50.7±15.7 yrs, BMI 25.5±4.0Kg/m2). Uric acid was measured using uricase-PAP method, inflammatory (TNF-α, IL-6 and CRP) and atherosclerosis markers (ICAM-1, VCAM-1, MCP-1 and PAI-1) were measured by a multiplexed particle-based flow cytometric assay. There was a positive correlation between serum uric acid and inflammatory markers, IL-6 (r=0.30, p=0.01), CRP (r=0.37, p=0.003), TNF-α (r=0.40, p=0.001) and adhesion molecules levels, ICAM-1 (r=0.53, p=0.0001), and VCAM-1 (r=0.45, p=0.0001)ParametersHD PatientsHealthy individualsCRP (mg/mL)0.32 ± 0.30*0.11 ± 0.12TNF-α (pg/mL)5.5 ± 2.1*2.4 ± 1.1IL-6 (pg/mL)4.1 ± 1.6*2.7 ± 0.4PAI-1 (ng/mL)7.0 ± 2.76.2 ± 2.1MCP-1 (pg/ml)47.6 ± 24.237.3 ± 19.0VCAM-1 (ng/mL)48.5 ± 8.5*23.8 ± 5.5ICAM-1 (ng/mL)20.5 ± 15.9*7.2 ± 1.2⁎p<0.05In conclusion, these original data suggest that uric acid may have a role in inflammation and atherosclerosis in HD patient

Metodologia de um projeto aerodinâmico básico voltado a competição SAE Brasil aerodesign / Methodology of a basic aerodynamic project destinated to SAE Brazil aerodesign competition

Este trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de um projeto aerodinâmico básico de um avião destinado à competição SAE Brasil Aerodesign, para o qual é desenvolvido uma aeronave cargueira rádio controlada em escala reduzida. A metodologia simplista utilizada facilita a compreensão das etapas de projeto e consequentemente a minimização do tempo empregado para o estudo aerodinâmico. Esse projeto leva em consideração as limitações impostas pela competição, tais como a área máxima em vista superior, que influenciam significativamente na missão da aeronave. Para se chegar em uma aeronave competitiva é necessária a otimização de vários parâmetros aerodinâmicos, desde a escolha correta do perfil para asa e empenagens até os cálculos de arrasto sofrido pela aeronave. No desenvolvimento do projeto aerodinâmico foi utilizado o software XFRL5 para a obtenção de alguns dados analisados. A técnica de aproximação de esforços sofridos na asa pelo diagrama de Schrenk, contribuição dos componentes da aeronave para o arrasto,a influência do efeito solo e o cálculo da curva polar de arrasto são fatores determinantes para um bom projeto

ALMA observations of Elias 2–24: a protoplanetary disk with multiple gaps in the Ophiuchus molecular cloud

We present ALMA 1.3 mm continuum observations at 0. 2 (25 au) resolution of Elias 2–24, one of the largest and brightest protoplanetary disks in the Ophiuchus Molecular Cloud, and we report the presence of three partially resolved concentric gaps located at ∼20, 52, and 87 au from the star. We perform radiative transfer modeling of the disk to constrain its surface density and temperature radial profile and place the disk structure in the context of mechanisms capable of forming narrow gaps such as condensation fronts and dynamical clearing by actively forming planets. In particular, we estimate the disk temperature at the locations of the gaps to be 23, 15, and 12 K (at 20, 52, and 87 au, respectively), very close to the expected snowlines of CO (23–28 K) and N2 (12–15 K). Similarly, by assuming that the widths of the gaps correspond to 4–8× the Hill radii of forming planets (as suggested by numerical simulations), we estimate planet masses in the range of 0.2 1.5 – MJup, 1.0 8.0 – MJup, and 0.02 0.15 – MJup for the inner, middle, and outer gap, respectively. Given the surface density profile of the disk, the amount of “missing mass” at the location of each one of these gaps (between 4 and 20 MJup) is more than sufficient to account for the formation of such planets.Fil: Cieza, Lucas A.. Universidad Diego Portales; ChileFil: Casassus, Simon. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Pérez, Sebastian. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Hales, Antonio. Alma Observatory; ChileFil: Cárcamo, Miguel. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Ansdell, Megan. University of California at Berkeley; Estados UnidosFil: Avenhaus, Henning. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Bayo, Amelia. Universidad de Valparaiso; ChileFil: Bertrang, Gesa H.-M.. Universidad Diego Portales; ChileFil: Cánovas, Hector. Agencia Espacial Europea; EspañaFil: Christiaens, Valentin. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Dent, William. Alma Observatory; ChileFil: Ferrero, Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Gamen, Roberto Claudio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Olofsson, Johan. Universidad de Valparaiso; ChileFil: Orcajo, Santiago. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Osses, Axel. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Peña Ramirez, Karla. Universidad de Antofagasta; ChileFil: Principe, David. Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Estados UnidosFil: Ruíz Rodríguez, Dary. Rochester Institute Of Technology; Estados UnidosFil: Schreiber, Matthias R.. Universidad de Valparaiso; ChileFil: Plas, Gerrit van der. Univ. Grenoble Alpes; SuizaFil: Williams, Jonathan P.. Institute For Astronomy, University Of Hawaii; Estados UnidosFil: Zurlo, Alice. Universidad Diego Portales; Chil

Polymer-based shielding approaches as a practical solution reducing radiological risks in field operations

The objective of this research is to evaluate various polymeric materials that have the potential to serve as substitutes or supplements to heavy vehicle structures for radiation-intensive environments. The materials under investigation include Nylon 6 (PA-6, C6H11NO), polyethylene (PE, C2H4), polypropylene (PP, C3H6), polyvinyl chloride (PVC, C2H3Cl), and polymethylacrylate (PMMA, C5H8O2). This study's primary aim is to determine each material's effectiveness in shielding against radiation and reducing exposure to vehicle occupants. As a new approach, this research examines the impact of utilizing polymeric materials and the potential health hazards for young drivers of both sexes, such as developing solid cancers from radiation exposure. According to the study, PVC was the most efficient polymer with a Transmission Factor (TF) of 0.44, leading to a 56% decrease in the relative risk estimate for the maximum thickness evaluated (20 cm). On the other hand, PP was identified as the least efficient, with a TF of 0.65, resulting in a 35% reduction in the relative risk estimate for the same thickness. The study concludes that each polymer has varying degrees of attenuation and that combining their properties is essential to achieving the desired level of risk reduction