Detection of Potential Transit Signals in Sixteen Quarters of Kepler Mission Data

We present the results of a search for potential transit signals in four years of photometry data acquired by the Kepler Mission. The targets of the search include 111,800 stars which were observed for the entire interval and 85,522 stars which were observed for a subset of the interval. We found that 9,743 targets contained at least one signal consistent with the signature of a transiting or eclipsing object, where the criteria for detection are periodicity of the detected transits, adequate signal-to-noise ratio, and acceptance by a number of tests which reject false positive detections. When targets that had produced a signal were searched repeatedly, an additional 6,542 signals were detected on 3,223 target stars, for a total of 16,285 potential detections. Comparison of the set of detected signals with a set of known and vetted transit events in the Kepler field of view shows that the recovery rate for these signals is 96.9%. The ensemble properties of the detected signals are reviewed.Comment: Accepted by ApJ Supplemen

Detection of Potential Transit Signals in the First Three Quarters of Kepler Mission Data

We present the results of a search for potential transit signals in the first three quarters of photometry data acquired by the Kepler Mission. The targets of the search include 151,722 stars which were observed over the full interval and an additional 19,132 stars which were observed for only 1 or 2 quarters. From this set of targets we find a total of 5,392 detections which meet the Kepler detection criteria: those criteria are periodicity of the signal, an acceptable signal-to-noise ratio, and a composition test which rejects spurious detections which contain non-physical combinations of events. The detected signals are dominated by events with relatively low signal-to-noise ratio and by events with relatively short periods. The distribution of estimated transit depths appears to peak in the range between 40 and 100 parts per million, with a few detections down to fewer than 10 parts per million. The detected signals are compared to a set of known transit events in the Kepler field of view which were derived by a different method using a longer data interval; the comparison shows that the current search correctly identified 88.1% of the known events. A tabulation of the detected transit signals, examples which illustrate the analysis and detection process, a discussion of future plans and open, potentially fruitful, areas of further research are included

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler, III: Analysis of the First 16 Months of Data

New transiting planet candidates are identified in sixteen months (May 2009 - September 2010) of data from the Kepler spacecraft. Nearly five thousand periodic transit-like signals are vetted against astrophysical and instrumental false positives yielding 1,091 viable new planet candidates, bringing the total count up to over 2,300. Improved vetting metrics are employed, contributing to higher catalog reliability. Most notable is the noise-weighted robust averaging of multi-quarter photo-center offsets derived from difference image analysis which identifies likely background eclipsing binaries. Twenty-two months of photometry are used for the purpose of characterizing each of the new candidates. Ephemerides (transit epoch, T_0, and orbital period, P) are tabulated as well as the products of light curve modeling: reduced radius (Rp/R*), reduced semi-major axis (d/R*), and impact parameter (b). The largest fractional increases are seen for the smallest planet candidates (197% for candidates smaller than 2Re compared to 52% for candidates larger than 2Re) and those at longer orbital periods (123% for candidates outside of 50-day orbits versus 85% for candidates inside of 50-day orbits). The gains are larger than expected from increasing the observing window from thirteen months (Quarter 1-- Quarter 5) to sixteen months (Quarter 1 -- Quarter 6). This demonstrates the benefit of continued development of pipeline analysis software. The fraction of all host stars with multiple candidates has grown from 17% to 20%, and the paucity of short-period giant planets in multiple systems is still evident. The progression toward smaller planets at longer orbital periods with each new catalog release suggests that Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone are forthcoming if, indeed, such planets are abundant.Comment: Submitted to ApJS. Machine-readable tables are available at http://kepler.nasa.gov, http://archive.stsci.edu/kepler/results.html, and the NASA Exoplanet Archiv

Seismic analysis of four solar-like stars observed during more than eight months by Kepler

Having started science operations in May 2009, the Kepler photometer has been able to provide exquisite data of solar-like stars. Five out of the 42 stars observed continuously during the survey phase show evidence of oscillations, even though they are rather faint (magnitudes from 10.5 to 12). In this paper, we present an overview of the results of the seismic analysis of 4 of these stars observed during more than eight months.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure. To appear in the ASP proceedings of "The 61st Fujihara seminar: Progress in solar/stellar physics with helio- and asteroseismology", 13th-17th March 2011, Hakone, Japa

Progestogens to prevent preterm birth in twin pregnancies: an individual participant data meta-analysis of randomized trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Preterm birth is the principal factor contributing to adverse outcomes in multiple pregnancies. Randomized controlled trials of progestogens to prevent preterm birth in twin pregnancies have shown no clear benefits. However, individual studies have not had sufficient power to evaluate potential benefits in women at particular high risk of early delivery (for example, women with a previous preterm birth or short cervix) or to determine adverse effects for rare outcomes such as intrauterine death.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>We propose an individual participant data meta-analysis of high quality randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials of progestogen treatment in women with a twin pregnancy. The primary outcome will be adverse perinatal outcome (a composite measure of perinatal mortality and significant neonatal morbidity). Missing data will be imputed within each original study, before data of the individual studies are pooled. The effects of 17-hydroxyprogesterone caproate or vaginal progesterone treatment in women with twin pregnancies will be estimated by means of a random effects log-binomial model. Analyses will be adjusted for variables used in stratified randomization as appropriate. Pre-specified subgroup analysis will be performed to explore the effect of progestogen treatment in high-risk groups.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Combining individual patient data from different randomized trials has potential to provide valuable, clinically useful information regarding the benefits and potential harms of progestogens in women with twin pregnancy overall and in relevant subgroups.</p

The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data

We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η⊕ for the conservative HZ is between 0.37^(+0.48)_(−0.21) (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60^(+0.90)_(−0.36) planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58^(+0.73)_(−0.33) and 0.88^(+1.28)_(−0.51) planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ~6 pc away and there are ~4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun

The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $\eta_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $\eta_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.Comment: To appear in The Astronomical Journa