Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic

This work was supported in part by US Office of Naval Research (ONR) grants to E.F.: N00014-09-1-0896 at University of California, Santa Barbara and N00014-12-1-0274 at University of California, Davis. This work was also supported by ONR grant N000141210286 to the University of St Andrews. In addition, we gratefully acknowledge funding for this work from The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS). MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis; henceforth right whales) are among the most endangered large whales. Although protected since 1935, their abundance has remained low. Right whales occupy the Atlantic Ocean from southern Greenland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence south to Florida. The highly industrialized mid-Atlantic region is part of the species’ migratory corridor. Gaps in knowledge of the species’ movements through the mid-Atlantic limit informed management of stressors to the species. To contribute to filling of these gaps, we elicited estimates of the relative abundance of adult right whales in the mid-Atlantic during four months, representing each season, from ten experts. We elicited the minimum, maximum, and mode as the number of individuals in a hypothetical population of 100 right whales, and confidence estimates as percentages. For each month-sex combination, we merged the ten experts’ answers into one distribution. The estimated modes of relative abundances of both sexes were highest in January and April (females, 29 and 59; males, 22 and 23) and lowest in July and October (females, five and nine; males, three and five). In some cases, our elicitation results were consistent with the results of studies based on sightings data. However, these studies generally did not adjust for sampling effort, which was low and likely variable. Our results supplement the results of these studies and will increase the accuracy of priors in complementary Bayesian models of right whale abundances and movements through the mid-Atlantic.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Plant evolution:Streptophyte multicellularity, ecology, and the acclimatisation of plants to life on land

Land plants are celebrated as one of the three great instances of complex multicellularity, but new phylogenomic and phenotypic analyses are revealing deep evolutionary roots of multicellularity among algal relatives, prompting questions about the causal basis of this major evolutionary transitio

The impact of MMP on political party electorate organisations : a case study of National in Banks Peninsula

This thesis examines the impact of the introduction of the MMP electoral system on the behaviour of electorate level political party activists. The theoretical framework used incorporates literature on both electoral systems and party organisations, particularly the work of Maurice Duverger (1954). Three hypotheses are presented dealing with how electorate organisations are likely to be affected by the change in electoral system both as individual entities (greater difficulty in performing basic functions) and as part of the wider party organisation (greater centralisation and stronger articulation). These are tested using a qualitative analysis of information gathered from a case study of the New Zealand National Party in the Banks Peninsula electorate. This thesis concludes that electorate organisations have not been significantly affected by the introduction of MMP. Minor changes in relation to the functions they perform have in most cases been counter­ balanced by either legislative changes or the stability of branch organisations within the electorate. It is also concluded that, while articulation has strengthened and centralisation increased within the National Party organisation, the strength of its democratic and decentralised tradition is such that the implications for electorate organisations will be minimal. Perhaps the only exception is in relation to campaigning, where this study has shown that electorate activists generally have yet to make the cultural transition to the MMP environment and the new significance of party over local candidate

Origin of horsetails and the role of whole-genome duplication in plant macroevolution

Whole-genome duplication (WGD) has occurred commonly in land plant evolution and it is often invoked as a causal agent in diversification, phenotypic and developmental innovation, as well as conferring extinction resistance. The ancient and iconic lineage of Equisetum is no exception, where WGD has been inferred to have occurred prior to the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary, coincident with WGD events in angiosperms. In the absence of high species diversity, WGD in Equisetum is interpreted to have facilitated the long-term survival of the lineage. However, this characterization remains uncertain as these analyses of the Equisetum WGD event have not accounted for fossil diversity. Here, we analyse additional available transcriptomes and summarize the fossil record. Our results confirm support for at least one WGD event shared among the majority of extant Equisetum species. Furthermore, we use improved dating methods to constrain the age of gene duplication in geological time and identify two successive Equisetum WGD events. The two WGD events occurred during the Carboniferous and Triassic, respectively, rather than in association with the K-Pg boundary. WGD events are believed to drive high rates of trait evolution and innovations, but analysed trends of morphological evolution across the historical diversity of Equisetum provide little evidence for further macroevolutionary consequences following WGD. WGD events cannot have conferred extinction resistance to the Equisetum lineage through the K-Pg boundary since the ploidy events occurred hundreds of millions of years before this mass extinction and we find evidence of extinction among fossil polyploid Equisetum lineages. Our findings precipitate the need for a review of the proposed roles of WGDs in biological innovation and extinction survival in angiosperm and non-angiosperm lineages alike.</p

Size isn’t everything:rates of genome size evolution, not C value, correlate with speciation in angiosperms

Angiosperms represent one of the key examples of evolutionary success, and their diversity dwarfs other land plants; this success has been linked, in part, to genome size and phenomena such as whole genome duplication events. However, while angiosperms exhibit a remarkable breadth of genome size, evidence linking overall genome size to diversity is equivocal, at best. Here, we show that the rates of speciation and genome size evolution are tightly correlated across land plants, and angiosperms show the highest rates for both, whereas very slow rates are seen in their comparatively species-poor sister group, the gymnosperms. No evidence is found linking overall genome size and rates of speciation. Within angiosperms, both the monocots and eudicots show the highest rates of speciation and genome size evolution, and these data suggest a potential explanation for the megadiversity of angiosperms. It is difficult to associate high rates of diversification with different types of polyploidy, but it is likely that high rates of evolution correlate with a smaller genome size after genome duplications. The diversity of angiosperms may, in part, be due to an ability to increase evolvability by benefiting from whole genome duplications, transposable elements and general genome plasticity

Uncertain-tree:Discriminating among competing approaches to the phylogenetic analysis of phenotype data

Morphological data provide the only means of classifying the majority of life's history, but the choice between competing phylogenetic methods for the analysis of morphology is unclear. Traditionally, parsimony methods have been favoured but recent studies have shown that these approaches are less accurate than the Bayesian implementation of the Mk model. Here we expand on these findings in several ways: we assess the impact of tree shape and maximum-likelihood estimation using the Mk model, as well as analysing data composed of both binary and multistate characters. We find that all methods struggle to correctly resolve deep clades within asymmetric trees, and when analysing small character matrices. The Bayesian Mk model is the most accurate method for estimating topology, but with lower resolution than other methods. Equal weights parsimony is more accurate than implied weights parsimony, and maximum-likelihood estimation using the Mk model is the least accurate method. We conclude that the Bayesian implementation of the Mk model should be the default method for phylogenetic estimation from phenotype datasets, and we explore the implications of our simulations in reanalysing several empirical morphological character matrices. A consequence of our finding is that high levels of resolution or the ability to classify species or groups with much confidence should not be expected when using small datasets. It is now necessary to depart from the traditional parsimony paradigms of constructing character matrices, towards datasets constructed explicitly for Bayesian methods.This research was funded by NERC (NE/L501554/1 to J.E.O.R. and L.A.P.; NE/K500823/1 to M.N.P.; NE/L002434/1 to J.F.; NE/N003438/1 to P.C.J.D.), BBSRC (BB/N000919/1 to P.C.J.D.), the University of Bristol (STaR scholarship to A.R.T.), Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award (P.C.J.D.) and the John Templeton Foundation (43915 to D.P. and L.H.).N

Origin of horsetails and the role of whole-genome duplication in plant macroevolution

Whole-genome duplication (WGD) has occurred commonly in land plant evolution and it is often invoked as a causal agent in diversification, phenotypic and developmental innovation, as well as conferring extinction resistance. The ancient and iconic lineage of Equisetum is no exception, where WGD has been inferred to have occurred prior to the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary, coincident with WGD events in angiosperms. In the absence of high species diversity, WGD in Equisetum is interpreted to have facilitated the long-term survival of the lineage. However, this characterization remains uncertain as these analyses of the Equisetum WGD event have not accounted for fossil diversity. Here, we analyse additional available transcriptomes and summarize the fossil record. Our results confirm support for at least one WGD event shared among the majority of extant Equisetum species. Furthermore, we use improved dating methods to constrain the age of gene duplication in geological time and identify two successive Equisetum WGD events. The two WGD events occurred during the Carboniferous and Triassic, respectively, rather than in association with the K-Pg boundary. WGD events are believed to drive high rates of trait evolution and innovations, but analysed trends of morphological evolution across the historical diversity of Equisetum provide little evidence for further macroevolutionary consequences following WGD. WGD events cannot have conferred extinction resistance to the Equisetum lineage through the K-Pg boundary since the ploidy events occurred hundreds of millions of years before this mass extinction and we find evidence of extinction among fossil polyploid Equisetum lineages. Our findings precipitate the need for a review of the proposed roles of WGDs in biological innovation and extinction survival in angiosperm and non-angiosperm lineages alike.</p