Socio-hydrological modelling of flood-risk dynamics: comparing the resilience of green and technological systems

This work aims to provide a dynamic assessment of flood risk and community resilience by explicitly accounting for variable human behaviour, e.g. risk-taking and awareness-raising attitudes. We consider two different types of socio-hydrological systems: green systems, whereby societies deal with risk only via non-structural measures, and technological systems, whereby risk is dealt with also by structural measures, such as levees. A stylized model of human\u2013flood interactions is first compared to real-world data collected at two test sites (People\u2019s Republic of Bangladesh and the city of Rome, Italy) and then used to explore plausible trajectories of flood risk. The results show that flood risk in technological systems tends to be significantly lower than in green systems. However, technological systems may undergo catastrophic events, which lead to much higher losses. Furthermore, green systems prove to be more resilient than technological ones, which makes them more capable of withstanding environmental and social changes. EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned

Human-flood interactions in Rome over the past 150 years

Abstract. Throughout history, the socio-economic development of the city of Rome has been intertwined with the magnitude and frequency of flooding events from the Tiber, one of Italy's largest rivers. Ancient Rome mostly developed on the hills, while the Tiber's floodplain was mainly exploited for agricultural purposes. A few small communities did settle in the riparian areas of the Tiber, but they had a relatively peaceful relationship with the frequent occurrence of flooding events. Instead, numerous people live nowadays in modern districts in the Tiber's floodplain, unaware of their exposure to potentially catastrophic flooding. This research work aims to explore the dynamics of changing flood risk between these two opposite pictures of ancient and contemporary Rome. To this end, we carried out a socio-hydrological study by using long time series of hydrological (extreme flood events) and social (human population dynamics) processes, along with information about human interactions with the environment (flood defence structures). The historical analysis showed how human and water systems have been co-evolving over time, while being abruptly altered by the occurrence of an extreme flood event in 1870, just before Rome became the capital of a recently unified Italy. The outcomes of this study were then compared to the results of a socio-hydrological model simulating the dynamics emerging from the mutual shaping of floods and societies

Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models

Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes

Climate Impact Storylines for Assessing Socio-Economic Responses to Remote Events

Complex interactions involving climatic features, socio-economic vulnerability or responses, and long impact transmissions are associated with substantial uncertainty. Physical climate storylines are proposed as approach to explore complex impact transmission pathways and possible alternative unfolding of event cascades under future climate conditions. These storylines are particularly useful for climate risk assessment for complex domains, including event cascades crossing multiple disciplinary or geographical borders. For an effective role in climate risks assessments, practical guidelines are needed to consistently develop and interpret the storyline event analyses.This paper elaborates on the suitability of physical climate storyline approaches involving climate event induced shocks propagating into societal impacts. It proposes a set of common elements to construct the event storylines. In addition, criteria for their application for climate risk assessment are given, referring to the need for storylines to be physically plausible, relevant for the specific context, and risk-informative.Six examples of varying scope and complexity are presented, all involving the potential climate change impact on European socio-economic sectors induced by remote climate change features occurring far outside the geographical domain of the European mainland. The storyline examples illustrate the application of the proposed storyline components and evaluates the suitability criteria defined in this paper. It thereby contributes to the standardization of the design and application of event-based climate storyline approaches

Genomic Relationships, Novel Loci, and Pleiotropic Mechanisms across Eight Psychiatric Disorders

Genetic influences on psychiatric disorders transcend diagnostic boundaries, suggesting substantial pleiotropy of contributing loci. However, the nature and mechanisms of these pleiotropic effects remain unclear. We performed analyses of 232,964 cases and 494,162 controls from genome-wide studies of anorexia nervosa, attention-deficit/hyper-activity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, major depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder, schizophrenia, and Tourette syndrome. Genetic correlation analyses revealed a meaningful structure within the eight disorders, identifying three groups of inter-related disorders. Meta-analysis across these eight disorders detected 109 loci associated with at least two psychiatric disorders, including 23 loci with pleiotropic effects on four or more disorders and 11 loci with antagonistic effects on multiple disorders. The pleiotropic loci are located within genes that show heightened expression in the brain throughout the lifespan, beginning prenatally in the second trimester, and play prominent roles in neurodevelopmental processes. These findings have important implications for psychiatric nosology, drug development, and risk prediction.Peer reviewe

Test of lepton universality in b→sℓ+ℓ−b \rightarrow s \ell^+ \ell^- decays

The first simultaneous test of muon-electron universality using $B^{+}\rightarrow K^{+}\ell^{+}\ell^{-}$ and $B^{0}\rightarrow K^{*0}\ell^{+}\ell^{-}$ decays is performed, in two ranges of the dilepton invariant-mass squared, $q^{2}$. The analysis uses beauty mesons produced in proton-proton collisions collected with the LHCb detector between 2011 and 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 $\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$. Each of the four lepton universality measurements reported is either the first in the given $q^{2}$ interval or supersedes previous LHCb measurements. The results are compatible with the predictions of the Standard Model.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2022-046.html (LHCb public pages

Study of charmonium decays to KS0KπK^0_S K \pi in the B→(KS0Kπ)KB \to (K^0_S K \pi) K channels

A study of the $B^+\to K^0_SK^+K^-\pi^+$ and $B^+\to K^0_SK^+K^+\pi^-$ decays is performed using proton-proton collisions at center-of-mass energies of 7, 8 and 13 TeV at the LHCb experiment. The $K^0_SK \pi$ invariant mass spectra from both decay modes reveal a rich content of charmonium resonances. New precise measurements of the $\eta_c$ and $\eta_c(2S)$ resonance parameters are performed and branching fraction measurements are obtained for $B^+$ decays to $\eta_c$, $J/\psi$, $\eta_c(2S)$ and $\chi_{c1}$ resonances. In particular, the first observation and branching fraction measurement of $B^+ \to \chi_{c0} K^0 \pi^+$ is reported as well as first measurements of the $B^+\to K^0K^+K^-\pi^+$ and $B^+\to K^0K^+K^+\pi^-$ branching fractions. Dalitz plot analyses of $\eta_c \to K^0_SK\pi$ and $\eta_c(2S) \to K^0_SK\pi$ decays are performed. A new measurement of the amplitude and phase of the $K \pi$ $S$-wave as functions of the $K \pi$ mass is performed, together with measurements of the $K^*_0(1430)$, $K^*_0(1950)$ and $a_0(1700)$ parameters. Finally, the branching fractions of $\chi_{c1}$ decays to $K^*$ resonances are also measured.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2022-051.html (LHCb public pages

Measurement of lepton universality parameters in B+→K+ℓ+ℓ−B^+\to K^+\ell^+\ell^- and B0→K∗0ℓ+ℓ−B^0\to K^{*0}\ell^+\ell^- decays

A simultaneous analysis of the $B^+\to K^+\ell^+\ell^-$ and $B^0\to K^{*0}\ell^+\ell^-$ decays is performed to test muon-electron universality in two ranges of the square of the dilepton invariant mass, $q^2$. The measurement uses a sample of beauty meson decays produced in proton-proton collisions collected with the LHCb detector between 2011 and 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $9$ $\text{fb}^{-1}$. A sequence of multivariate selections and strict particle identification requirements produce a higher signal purity and a better statistical sensitivity per unit luminosity than previous LHCb lepton universality tests using the same decay modes. Residual backgrounds due to misidentified hadronic decays are studied using data and included in the fit model. Each of the four lepton universality measurements reported is either the first in the given $q^2$ interval or supersedes previous LHCb measurements. The results are compatible with the predictions of the Standard Model.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2022-045.html (LHCb public pages

Measurement of antiproton production from antihyperon decays in pHe collisions at √sNN=110GeV

The interpretation of cosmic antiproton flux measurements from space-borne experiments is currently limited by the knowledge of the antiproton production cross-section in collisions between primary cosmic rays and the interstellar medium. Using collisions of protons with an energy of 6.5 TeV incident on helium nuclei at rest in the proximity of the interaction region of the LHCb experiment, the ratio of antiprotons originating from antihyperon decays to prompt production is measured for antiproton momenta between 12 and 110GeV\!/c . The dominant antihyperon contribution, namely Λ¯ → p¯ π+ decays from promptly produced Λ¯ particles, is also exclusively measured. The results complement the measurement of prompt antiproton production obtained from the same data sample. At the energy scale of this measurement, the antihyperon contributions to antiproton production are observed to be significantly larger than predictions of commonly used hadronic production models