Evaluation of post Kyoto GHG emission reduction paths

Climate change has become a critical issue in the international policy making agenda. At the UNFCC conference in Bali 2007, countries decided on a roadmap to achieve a ‘secure climate future’. Given the commitment to limit the temperature increase to 2° Celsius relative to the preindustrial levels, the EU decided in March 2007, as a first step, a 20% reduction of its GHG emissions by 2020, going to 30% if a comprehensive international agreement can be reached. This study uses the multi-sector multi-region world model GEM-E3 in order to identify the world economic implications of different participation schemes for post Kyoto. The scenarios reported in this paper have contributed to the EU communication on ‘Limiting Global Change to 2° Celsius the way ahead to 2020 and beyond’.Climate change; Computable general equilibrium modeling; Emission reduction;

Economic consequences of zero international migration in the EU: An assessment for Europe based on the Eurostat population projections

Without international migration the EU28 population by 2060 would be reduced by 76 million people, with a higher median age. This study explores how much EU28 and members states long-term economic growth would be affected in case there would not be international migration to the EU28 countries from now to the year 2060.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis

The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise. We use the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to analyze the results of three scenarios. The first one refers to the impact of an increase in the oil price. The second scenario analyses the European climate policy and the third scenario analyses the oil price rise when the European climate policy is implemented. Unilateral EU climate policy imposes a cost on the EU of around 1.0% of GDP. An oil price rise in the presence of EU climate policy does impose an additional cost on the EU of 1.5% of GDP, but this is less than the 2.2% of GDP that the EU would lose from the oil price rise in the absence of climate policy. This is evidence that even unilateral climate policy does offer some economic protection for the EU.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Recent Trends and Outlook of the Spanish Energy System

During the last decade the Spanish energy system has become more energy and carbon intensive, and more dependent on external energy resources. The regulation of the electricity market has significantly changed. Two scenarios for the 2030 time horizon are analysed with the POLES-Spain energy model. Under the baseline scenario, the main energy challenges persist even if the energy-GDP intensity reverses its increasing trend. According to a second scenario that assumes significant progress in energy efficiency and higher international energy prices, the energy system undergoes a transformation towards cleaner technologies and renewable energy resourcesJRC.J.2-The economics of climate change, energy and transpor

Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond - Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathway Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 Models

The European Union is committed to limiting the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. In 2007, the European Commission published a Communication on 'Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius: the way ahead for 2020 and beyond', which explores ways for meeting this target. The Communication drew on scenarios developed by the Joint Research Centre IPTS. These scenarios and the underlying model toolbox are presented in this report. The report shows that a baseline development would lead to a continuous rise in global greenhouse gas emissions. If dedicated climate change policies and energy efficiency standards were introduced, global greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and industrial processes could be reduced to reach a level of 25% below that of 1990. The 'GHG reduction scenario' takes a novel ¿ yet realistic ¿ approach by simulating an imperfect carbon market across sectors and regions. Reaching the 2 degree target pathway is feasible under these assumptions. One key element for achieving it would be energy savings and changes in the power sector. Furthermore, the use of 'flexible mechanisms' is found to be central for limiting the cost of an ambitious climate change policy.JRC.J.2-Competitiveness and Sustainabilit

Evaluation of post Kyoto GHG emission reduction paths

Climate change has become a critical issue in the international policy making agenda. At the UNFCC conference in Bali 2007, countries decided on a roadmap to achieve a ‘secure climate future’. Given the commitment to limit the temperature increase to 2° Celsius relative to the preindustrial levels, the EU decided in March 2007, as a first step, a 20% reduction of its GHG emissions by 2020, going to 30% if a comprehensive international agreement can be reached. This study uses the multi-sector multi-region world model GEM-E3 in order to identify the world economic implications of different participation schemes for post Kyoto. The scenarios reported in this paper have contributed to the EU communication on ‘Limiting Global Change to 2° Celsius the way ahead to 2020 and beyond’

Assessing future climate change impacts in the EU and the USA: insights and lessons from two continental-scale projects

Climate change will impact many economic sectors and aspects of natural and human wellbeing. Quantifying these impacts as they vary across regions, sectors, time, and social and climatological scenarios supports detailed planning, policy, and risk management. This article summarises and compares recent climate impact assessments in Europe (the JRC PESETA III project) and the USA (the American Climate Prospectus project). Both implement a multi-sector perspective combining high resolution climate data with sectoral impact and economic models. The assessments differ in their coverage of sectors and scenarios, mix of empirical and process-based methods, handling of uncertainty, and representation of damages. Despite the dissimilarities, projected relative economic impacts are comparable, with human mortality as the dominant impact category. Both studies further show a large spatial heterogeneity of impacts that may amplify pre-existing economic inequality in the EU and US, and that mitigation can considerably reduce economic impacts. The comparison highlights the various decision-points involved in interdisciplinary climate impact modelling and lessons learnt in both projects, on the basis of which we provide recommendations for further research

Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study

Background Excessively high and low temperatures substantially affect human health. Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat-related morbidity and mortality, presenting unprecedented challenges to public health systems. Since localised assessments of temperature-related mortality risk are essential to formulate effective public health responses and adaptation strategies, we aimed to estimate the current and future temperature-related mortality risk under four climate change scenarios across all European regions. Methods We modelled current and future mortality due to non-optimal temperatures across 1368 European regions, considering age-specific characteristics and local socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Overseas territories were excluded from the analysis. We applied a three-stage method to estimate temperature-related risk continuously across age and spatial dimensions. Age and city-specific exposure-response functions were obtained for a comprehensive list of 854 European cities from the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat. Regional aggregates were calculated using an aggregation and extrapolation method that incorporates the risk incidence in neighbouring cities. Mortality was projected for present conditions observed in 1991-2020 and for four different levels of global warming (15 degrees C, 2 degrees C, 3 degrees C, and 4 degrees C increase) by regions, and subregions using an ensemble of 11 climate models produced by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-CMIP5 over Europe, and population projection data from EUROPOP2019. Findings Our results highlight regional disparities in temperature-related mortality across Europe. Between 1991 and 2020, the number of cold-related deaths was 25 times higher in eastern Europe than western Europe, and heat- related deaths were 6 times higher in southern Europe than in northern Europe. During the same time period, there were a median of 363 809 cold-related deaths (empirical 95% CI 362 493-365 310) and 43 729 heat-related deaths (39 880-45 921), with a cold-to-heat-related death ratio of 83:1. Under current climate policies, aligned with 3 degrees C increase in global warming, it is estimated that temperature-related deaths could increase by 54 974 additional deaths (24 112-80 676) by 2100, driven by rising heat-related deaths and an ageing population, resulting in a cold-to-heat- related death ratio of 26:1. Climate change is also expected to widen disparities in regional mortality, particularly impacting southern regions of Europe as a result of a marked increase in heat-related deaths. Interpretation This study shows that regional disparities in temperature-related mortality risk in Europe are substantial and will continue to increase due to the effects of climate change and an ageing population. The data presented can assist policy makers and health authorities in mitigating increasing health inequalities by prioritising the protection of more susceptible areas and older population groups. We identify the projected areas of heightened risk (southern Europe), where policy intervention aimed at building adaptation and enhancing resilience should be prioritised

Economic analysis of selected climate impacts

Climate change damages the capital stock, affects economic production and the welfare of households in regions suffering the impact or that are economically linked with them. These economic effects have been quantified for seven climate impact categories: river floods, coastal floods, agriculture, energy supply, droughts, windstorms and human mortality. Due to the limited coverage of climate impacts, the assessment does not evaluate the full economic impacts of climate change in Europe. Human mortality from temperature extremes dominate the economic climate impacts, yet its contribution is strongly dependent on the monetary valuation of human lives. The magnitude of welfare losses in the Southern regions (Central Europe South and Southern Europe) is estimated to be several times larger compared to that in the North of Europe. Limiting warming to 2C would halve economic impacts compared to a 3C scenario, while achieving the stringent Paris target of 1.5C would lower welfare loss by 75%.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor