UFGM - 2006 Annual Report

INGV, SEZIONE DI CATANIAPublished2.6. TTC - Laboratorio di gravimetria, magnetismo ed elettromagnetismo in aree attiveope

A multi-element psychosocial intervention for early psychosis (GET UP PIANO TRIAL) conducted in a catchment area of 10 million inhabitants: study protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial

Multi-element interventions for first-episode psychosis (FEP) are promising, but have mostly been conducted in non-epidemiologically representative samples, thereby raising the risk of underestimating the complexities involved in treating FEP in 'real-world' services

Forecasting Lava Flow Hazard during the 2006 Etna Eruption: Using the Magflow Cellular Automata Model

The MAGFLOW cellular automata model was able to fairly accurately reproduce the time of the lava flow advance during the 2006 Etna eruption leading to very plausible flow predictions. MAGFLOW is intended for use in emergency response situations during an eruption to quickly forecast the lava flow path over some time interval from the immediate future to a long-time forecast. Major discrepancies between the observed and simulated paths occurred in the early phase of the 2006 eruption due to an underestimation of the initial flow rate, and at the time of the overlapping with the 2004-2005 lava flow. Very good representations of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows were obtained when we adopt a time-varying effusion rate and include the 2004-2005 lava flow field in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of topography

Forecasting Lava Flow Hazard during the 2006 Etna Eruption: Using the Magflow Cellular Automata Model

The MAGFLOW cellular automata model was able to fairly accurately reproduce the time of the lava flow advance during the 2006 Etna eruption leading to very plausible flow predictions. MAGFLOW is intended for use in emergency response situations during an eruption to quickly forecast the lava flow path over some time interval from the immediate future to a long-time forecast. Major discrepancies between the observed and simulated paths occurred in the early phase of the 2006 eruption due to an underestimation of the initial flow rate, and at the time of the overlapping with the 2004-2005 lava flow. Very good representations of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows were obtained when we adopt a time-varying effusion rate and include the 2004-2005 lava flow field in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of topography.Published1050-10605V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttiviJCR Journalope

Lava flow simulations using discharge rates from thermal

Techniques capable of measuring lava discharge rates during an eruption are important for hazard prediction, warning, and mitigation. To this end, we developed an automated system that uses thermal infrared satellite MODIS data to estimate time-averaged discharge rate. MODIS-derived time-varying discharge rates were used to drive lava flow simulations calculated using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model, allowing us to simulate the discharge rate-dependent spread of lava as a function of time. During the July 2006 eruption of Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), discharge rates were estimated at regular intervals (i.e., up to 2 times/day) using the MODIS data. The eruption lasted 10 days and produced a *3-km-long lava flow field. Time-averaged discharge rates extracted from 13 MODIS images were utilized to produce a detailed chronology of lava flow emplacement, demonstrating how infrared satellite data can be used to drive numerical simulations of lava flow paths during an ongoing eruptive event. The good agreement between simulated and mapped flow areas indicates that model-based inundation predictions, driven by timevarying discharge rate data, provide an excellent means for assessing the hazard posed by ongoing effusive eruptions

Hot spot detection and effusion rate estimation using satellite data to drive lava flow simulations

We demonstrated how infrared satellite data can be used to drive numerical simulations of lava flow paths and produced a detailed chronology of lava flow emplacement while an eruptive event was ongoing. We evaluated the lava flow hazard on Etna volcano during the first 40 days of May 2008 eruption by means of the MAGFLOW cellular automata model. This model was developed for simulating lava flow paths and the temporal evolution of lava emplacement. Many data are necessary to run MAGFLOW and to determine how far lava will flow. However, for a given composition, the volumetric flux of lava from the vent (i.e. the lava effusion rate) is the principal parameter controlling final flow dimensions\. Measuring effusion rates is therefore of great interest. To this end, we developed an automatic system that uses near-real-time infrared satellite data to estimate the lava effusion rates. Such system exploits the satellite data directly received and automatically processed by RST approach at CNR-IMAA, as input information for the prediction of the path lava flows. In particular, hotspots detected by RST, using both AVHRR and MODIS data, have been used to compute time-varying effusion rates, which have been applied to drive lava flow simulation using the original MAGFLOW cellular automata algorithm. Achieved results confirm the reliability of two methodologies (i.e. RST approach and MAGFLOW model), as well as the potential of the whole integrated processing chain, as an effective tool for real-time monitoring and mitigation of volcanic hazard