Building tools for the modelling of epoch of reionisation galaxies in the era of JWST

One of the Holy Grails of modern astronomy is to observe the first generations of stars and how they assembled into galaxies. While recent years have made incredible progress in this endeavour, we have reached somewhat of a cul-de-sac in terms of the sensitivity and wavelength coverage necessary to push further back into reionisation. We also struggle to make substantive statements about the physical properties of the galaxies we do detect at z > 6. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) promises to revolutionise our view of this epoch, however modelling must keep up in order to satisfactorily interpret these new observations. In this thesis I chart the development of a Bayesian SED fitting code interrogator. This code is optimised for maximum flexibility in model choices, so as to test between the suite of existing stellar, nebular and dust models, and also to modularly add new models as they are developed. I use this code on a sample of low redshift Extreme Emission Line Sources (EELS), selected from the GAMA survey as analogues to high redshift galaxies. Specifically I use interrogator to show how the various assumptions implicit in modern SED fitting affect the inferred physical properties of these objects, biasing results on even the most basic properties such as stellar mass and star formation rates. Finally, using the bluetides simulation, I propose a novel technique for modelling the stellar spectra of galaxies in the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR). By relaxing the single metallicity approximation commonly used in SED fitting, I show that improvements can be made to the recovery of these properties at the cost of adding additional parameters to the model

Nebular Line Emission During the Epoch of Reionization

Nebular emission lines associated with galactic HII regions carry information about both physical properties of the ionised gas and the source of ionising photons as well as providing the opportunity of measuring accurate redshifts and thus distances once a cosmological model is assumed. While nebular line emission has been extensively studied at lower redshift there are currently only few constraints within the epoch of reionisation (EoR, $z>6$), chiefly due to the lack of sensitive near-IR spectrographs. However, this will soon change with the arrival of the Webb Telescope providing sensitive near-IR spectroscopy covering the rest-frame UV and optical emission of galaxies in the EoR. In anticipation of Webb we combine the large cosmological hydrodynamical simulation Bluetides with photoionisation modelling to predict the nebular emission line properties of galaxies at $z=8\to 13$. We find good agreement with the, albeit limited, existing direct and indirect observational constraints on equivalent widths though poorer agreement with luminosity function constraints.Comment: 17 pages, accepted to MNRAS, significant modification from v1.0 data available at https://stephenmwilkins.github.io/BluetidesEmissionLines_Public

Breast cancer management pathways during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the UK ‘Alert Level 4’ phase of the B-MaP-C study

Abstract: Background: The B-MaP-C study aimed to determine alterations to breast cancer (BC) management during the peak transmission period of the UK COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of these treatment decisions. Methods: This was a national cohort study of patients with early BC undergoing multidisciplinary team (MDT)-guided treatment recommendations during the pandemic, designated ‘standard’ or ‘COVID-altered’, in the preoperative, operative and post-operative setting. Findings: Of 3776 patients (from 64 UK units) in the study, 2246 (59%) had ‘COVID-altered’ management. ‘Bridging’ endocrine therapy was used (n = 951) where theatre capacity was reduced. There was increasing access to COVID-19 low-risk theatres during the study period (59%). In line with national guidance, immediate breast reconstruction was avoided (n = 299). Where adjuvant chemotherapy was omitted (n = 81), the median benefit was only 3% (IQR 2–9%) using ‘NHS Predict’. There was the rapid adoption of new evidence-based hypofractionated radiotherapy (n = 781, from 46 units). Only 14 patients (1%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during their treatment journey. Conclusions: The majority of ‘COVID-altered’ management decisions were largely in line with pre-COVID evidence-based guidelines, implying that breast cancer survival outcomes are unlikely to be negatively impacted by the pandemic. However, in this study, the potential impact of delays to BC presentation or diagnosis remains unknown

The Art of Measuring Physical Parameters in Galaxies: A Critical Assessment of Spectral Energy Distribution Fitting Techniques

The study of galaxy evolution hinges on our ability to interpret multiwavelength galaxy observations in terms of their physical properties. To do this, we rely on spectral energy distribution (SED) models, which allow us to infer physical parameters from spectrophotometric data. In recent years, thanks to wide and deep multiwave band galaxy surveys, the volume of high-quality data have significantly increased. Alongside the increased data, algorithms performing SED fitting have improved, including better modeling prescriptions, newer templates, and more extensive sampling in wavelength space. We present a comprehensive analysis of different SED-fitting codes including their methods and output with the aim of measuring the uncertainties caused by the modeling assumptions. We apply 14 of the most commonly used SED-fitting codes on samples from the CANDELS photometric catalogs at z ∼ 1 and z ∼ 3. We find agreement on the stellar mass, while we observe some discrepancies in the star formation rate (SFR) and dust-attenuation results. To explore the differences and biases among the codes, we explore the impact of the various modeling assumptions as they are set in the codes (e.g., star formation histories, nebular, dust and active galactic nucleus models) on the derived stellar masses, SFRs, and A _V values. We then assess the difference among the codes on the SFR–stellar mass relation and we measure the contribution to the uncertainties by the modeling choices (i.e., the modeling uncertainties) in stellar mass (∼0.1 dex), SFR (∼0.3 dex), and dust attenuation (∼0.3 mag). Finally, we present some resources summarizing best practices in SED fitting