A model for the Z-track phenomenon in GX 5-1 and observational evidence for the physical origins of the kHz QPO

We present results of a combined investigation of the spectral and kHz QPO evolution around the Z-track in GX 5-1 based on high-quality RXTE data. The Extended ADC emission model provides very good fits to the spectra, the results pointing clearly to a model for the nature of the Z-track, in agreement with previous results for the similar source GX 340+0. In this model, at the soft apex of the Z-track, the mass accretion rate Mdot is minimum and the neutron star has its lowest temperature; but as the source moves along the normal branch, the luminosity of the Comptonized emission increases, indicating that Mdot increases and the neutron star gets hotter. The measured flux f of the neutron star emission increases by a factor of ten becoming super-Eddington, and we propose that this disrupts the inner disk so forming jets. In flaring, the luminosity of the dominant Comptonized emission from the ADC is constant, while the neutron star emission increases, and we propose for the first time that flaring consists of unstable nuclear burning on the neutron star, and the measured mass accretion rate per unit area mdot at the onset of flaring agrees well with the theoretical critical value at which burning becomes unstable. There is a striking correlation between the frequencies of the kHz QPO and the ratio of the flux to the Eddington value: f/f_Edd, suggesting an explanation of the higher frequency QPO and of its variation along the Z-track. It is well known that a Keplerian orbit in the disk at this frequency corresponds to a position some distance from the neutron star; we propose that the oscillation always occurs at the inner disk edge, which moves radially outwards on the upper normal and horizontal branches as the measured increasing radiation pressure increasingly disrupts the inner disk.Comment: Astronomy and Astrophysics, in pres

Methods for trend analysis: Examples with problem/failure data

Statistics are emphasized as an important role in quality control and reliability. Consequently, Trend Analysis Techniques recommended a variety of statistical methodologies that could be applied to time series data. The major goal of the working handbook, using data from the MSFC Problem Assessment System, is to illustrate some of the techniques in the NASA standard, some different techniques, and to notice patterns of data. Techniques for trend estimation used are: regression (exponential, power, reciprocal, straight line) and Kendall's rank correlation coefficient. The important details of a statistical strategy for estimating a trend component are covered in the examples. However, careful analysis and interpretation is necessary because of small samples and frequent zero problem reports in a given time period. Further investigations to deal with these issues are being conducted

Is it possible to identify a trend in problem/failure data

One of the major obstacles in identifying and interpreting a trend is the small number of data points. Future trending reports will begin with 1983 data. As the problem/failure data are aggregated by year, there are just seven observations (1983 to 1989) for the 1990 reports. Any statistical inferences with a small amount of data will have a large degree of uncertainty. Consequently, a regression technique approach to identify a trend is limited. Though trend determination by failure mode may be unrealistic, the data may be explored for consistency or stability and the failure rate investigated. Various alternative data analysis procedures are briefly discussed. Techniques that could be used to explore problem/failure data by failure mode are addressed. The data used are taken from Section One, Space Shuttle Main Engine, of the Calspan Quarterly Report dated April 2, 1990

Spectral Investigations of the nature of the Sco X-1 like sources

We present results of spectral investigations of the Sco X-1 like Z-track sources Sco X-1, GX 349+2 and GX 17+2 based on Rossi-XTE observations using an extended accretion disk corona model. The results are compared with previous results for the Cyg X-2 like group: Cyg X-2, GX 340+0 and GX 5-1 and a general model for the Z-track sources proposed. On the normal branch, the Sco-like and Cyg-like sources are similar, the results indicating an increase of mass accretion rate Mdot between soft and hard apex, not as in the standard view that this increases around the Z. In the Cyg-like sources, increasing Mdot causes the neutron star temperature kT to increase from ~1 to ~2 keV. At the lower kT, the radiation pressure is small, but at the higher kT, the emitted flux of the neutron star is several times super-Eddington and the high radiation pressure disrupts the inner disk launching the relativistic jets observed on the upper normal and horizontal branches. In the Sco-like sources, the main physical difference is the high kT of more than 2 keV on all parts of the Z-track suggesting that jets are always possible, even on the flaring branch. The flaring branch in the Cyg-like sources is associated with release of energy on the neutron star consistent with unstable nuclear burning. The Sco-like sources are very different as flaring appears to be a combination of unstable burning and an increase of Mdot which makes flaring much stronger. Analysis of 15 years or RXTE ASM data on all 6 classic Z-track sources shows the high rate and strength of flaring in the Sco-like sources suggesting that continual release of energy heats the neutron star causing the high kT. A Sco X-1 observation with unusually little flaring supports this. GX 17+2 appears to be transitional between the Cyg and Sco-like types. Our results do not support the suggestion that Cyg or Sco-like nature is determined by luminosity.Comment: Astronomy and Astrophysics in press; 21 pages, 13 figure

On the nature of the Cygnus X-2 like Z-track sources

Based on the results of applying the extended ADC emission model for low mass X-ray binaries to three Z-track sources: GX340+0, GX5-1 and CygX-2, we propose an explanation of the CygnusX-2 like Z-track sources. The Normal Branch is dominated by the increasing radiation pressure of the neutron star caused by a mass accretion rate that increases between the soft apex and the hard apex. The radiation pressure continues to increase on the Horizontal Branch becoming several times super-Eddington. We suggest that this disrupts the inner accretion disk and that part of the accretion flow is diverted vertically forming jets which are detected by their radio emission on this part of the Z-track. We thus propose that high radiation pressure is the necessary condition for the launching of jets. On the Flaring Branch there is a large increase in the neutron star blackbody luminosity at constant mass accretion rate indicating an additional energy source on the neutron star. We find that there is good agreement between the mass accretion rate per unit emitting area of the neutron star mdot at the onset of flaring and the theoretical critical value at which burning becomes unstable. We thus propose that flaring in the CygnusX-2 like sources consists of unstable nuclear burning. Correlation of measurements of kilohertz QPO frequencies in all three sources with spectral fitting results leads to the proposal that the upper kHz QPO is an oscillation always taking place at the inner accretion disk edge, the radius of which increases due to disruption of the disk by the high radiation pressure of the neutron star.Comment: Astronomy and Astrophysics, in pres

Bid-ask spreads in multiple dealer settings: Some experimental evidence

We report the results of an experiment designed to investigate the behavior of quoted spreads in multiple-dealer markets. We manipulate verbal communication (not allowed and allowed) and order preferencing (not allowed, allowed, and allowed with order-flow payment) between eighteen sessions. Without preferencing, spreads are wider when communication is allowed. With preferencing (and no order-flow payments), individuals do not have incentives to narrow the spread and a wide spread may be maintained without a collusive agreement. However, spreads narrow somewhat when individuals are given the opportunity to compete using alternatives to price (that is, payment for order flow).Financial markets

The effects of subject pool and design experience on rationality in experimental asset markets

Empirical evidence suggests that prices do not always reflect fundamental values and individual behavior is often inconsistent with rational expectations theory. We report the results of fourteen experimental markets designed to examine whether the interactive effect of subject pool and design experience tempers price bubbles and improves forecasting ability. Our main findings are: (i) price run-ups are modest and dissipate quickly when traders are knowledgeable about financial markets and have design experience; (ii) price bubbles moderate quickly when only a subset of traders are knowledgeable and experienced; and (iii) individual forecasts of price are not consistent with the predictions of the rational expectations model in any market.Financial markets

The effect of forecast bias on market behavior: evidence from experimental asset markets

This paper reports the results of 15 experimental asset markets designed to investigate the effect of optimistic forecast bias on market behavior. Each market is organized as a double oral auction in which participants trade a single-period asset with uncertain value. Traders are informed of the asset value distribution and, prior to trading, given the opportunity to acquire a forecast of the asset's period-end value. The degree of forecast bias is manipulated across experimental sessions so that in some sessions the forecast contains a systematic, upward (low or high) bias. We conduct sessions with inexperienced and experienced traders. The results suggest that market prices are supportive of a full revelation unbiased price in the unbiased markets and the experienced, low-bias markets. The results from the low-bias markets indicate that as long as traders have sufficient experience with such forecasts, asset prices reflect the debiased forecasts. In contrast, we find no evidence that high-bias forecasts are reflected in market prices, regardless of experience. We also find that the demand for forecasted information persists over time, but it is greater in the unbiased and low-bias conditions than in the high-bias condition. Finally, we provide little evidence that the net profit (that is, net of the information cost) of informed and uninformed traders differs, regardless of bias condition or experience level.Forecasting ; Asset pricing