Interaction between top-down and bottom-up control in marine food webs

Climate change and resource exploitation have been shown to modify the importance of bottom-up and top-down forces in ecosystems. However, the resulting pattern of trophic control in complex food webs is an emergent property of the system and thus unintuitive. We develop a statistical nondeterministic model, capable of modeling complex patterns of trophic control for the heavily impacted North Sea ecosystem. The model is driven solely by fishing mortality and climatic variables and based on time-series data covering >40 y for six plankton and eight fish groups along with one bird group (>20 y). Simulations show the outstanding importance of top-down exploitation pressure for the dynamics of fish populations. Whereas fishing effects on predators indirectly altered plankton abundance, bottom-up climatic processes dominate plankton dynamics. Importantly, we show planktivorous fish to have a central role in the North Sea food web initiating complex cascading effects across and between trophic levels. Our linked model integrates bottom-up and top-down effects and is able to simulate complex long-term changes in ecosystem components under a combination of stressor scenarios. Our results suggest that in marine ecosystems, pathways for bottom-up and top-down forces are not necessarily mutually exclusive and together can lead to the emergence of complex patterns of control.En prensa9,77

Selecting ecosystem indicators for fisheries targeting highly migratory species: An EU project to advance the operationalization of the EAFM in ICCAT and IOTC

Several international legal agreements and guidelines have set the minimum standards and key principles to guide the implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). However, the implementation of an EAFM in tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) has been patchy and lack a long-term plan, vision and guidance on how to operationalize it. The Specific Contract N0 2 “selecting ecosystem indicators for fisheries targeting highly migratory species-” (SC02 project) under the Framework Contract - EASME/ EMFF/2016/008 provisions of Scientific Advice for Fisheries Beyond EU Waters- addresses several scientific challenges and provides insights to support the implementation of an EAFM through collaboration and consultation with the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) and the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC). Specifically, this project first highlights properties of success and best practices from other regions of the world in operationalizing the ecosystem approach that potentially could be transferred to ICCAT and IOTC. Second, it delivered a list of potential ecosystem indicators of relevance to tuna RFMOs (ICCAT and IOTC) that are suitable to track the impacts of fisheries targeting tuna and tuna-like species on the broader pelagic ecosystem. Third, it designed a general framework based on a rule-based decision tree to provide guidance on how reference points could be set and used for diverse types of ecosystem indicators. Fourth, it proposed candidate ecoregions within the Atlantic and Indian Oceans which could be used to guide region-based ecosystem plans, assessments and research to ultimately provide better ecosystem-based advice to inform fisheries management. Fifth, it developed two pilot ecosystem plans for two case study regions, the tropical ecoregion within the ICCAT convention area, and the temperate ecoregion within the IOTC convention area. At this stage, these pilot ecosystem plans aim to create awareness about the need for ecosystem planning, start a discussion about the elements that need to be part of a planning process, and initiate a discussion in ICCAT and IOTC about the potential needs of ecosystem plans and their function. Finally, this project provided recommendations to foster the potential development, use, and implementation of ecosystem plans in ICCAT and IOTC

Workshop on the production of abundance estimates for sensitive species (WKABSENS). ICES Scientific Reports, 3:96.

The Workshop on the production of annual estimates of abundance of sensitive species (WKABSENS) met to define sensitive species, collate ICES assessments of abundance where these are available, and estimate indices of their abundance per swept-area where not, for the OSPAR area. The analyses identified 140 potentially sensitive species or species complexes, among which 10 are diadromous and three are coastal, 20 have uncertain species ID and nine were identified as sensitive in only one of the sources examined. Among the sensitive species and species complexes, there was sufficient data to provide abundance indices for 50 species, of which 16 had existing stock assessments whereas the workshop derived abundance estimates for the remaining 34 species from survey data. Three statistical modelling approaches (binomial, General Additive Models (GAMs) and VAST) and were explored and the final abundance indices were calculated using GAMs. The species were divided into stocks before estimating abundance indices where these could be identified from the spatial distribution of the species in the survey. The group considered that a similar analysis using data from additional surveys, commercial indices or data from bycatch observers can potentially provide improved abundance estimates for species with variable or low catchability, such as deep-water and pelagic species

Search for gravitational-lensing signatures in the full third observing run of the LIGO-Virgo network

Gravitational lensing by massive objects along the line of sight to the source causes distortions of gravitational wave-signals; such distortions may reveal information about fundamental physics, cosmology and astrophysics. In this work, we have extended the search for lensing signatures to all binary black hole events from the third observing run of the LIGO--Virgo network. We search for repeated signals from strong lensing by 1) performing targeted searches for subthreshold signals, 2) calculating the degree of overlap amongst the intrinsic parameters and sky location of pairs of signals, 3) comparing the similarities of the spectrograms amongst pairs of signals, and 4) performing dual-signal Bayesian analysis that takes into account selection effects and astrophysical knowledge. We also search for distortions to the gravitational waveform caused by 1) frequency-independent phase shifts in strongly lensed images, and 2) frequency-dependent modulation of the amplitude and phase due to point masses. None of these searches yields significant evidence for lensing. Finally, we use the non-detection of gravitational-wave lensing to constrain the lensing rate based on the latest merger-rate estimates and the fraction of dark matter composed of compact objects

Search for eccentric black hole coalescences during the third observing run of LIGO and Virgo

Despite the growing number of confident binary black hole coalescences observed through gravitational waves so far, the astrophysical origin of these binaries remains uncertain. Orbital eccentricity is one of the clearest tracers of binary formation channels. Identifying binary eccentricity, however, remains challenging due to the limited availability of gravitational waveforms that include effects of eccentricity. Here, we present observational results for a waveform-independent search sensitive to eccentric black hole coalescences, covering the third observing run (O3) of the LIGO and Virgo detectors. We identified no new high-significance candidates beyond those that were already identified with searches focusing on quasi-circular binaries. We determine the sensitivity of our search to high-mass (total mass M>70 M⊙) binaries covering eccentricities up to 0.3 at 15 Hz orbital frequency, and use this to compare model predictions to search results. Assuming all detections are indeed quasi-circular, for our fiducial population model, we place an upper limit for the merger rate density of high-mass binaries with eccentricities 0<e≤0.3 at 0.33 Gpc−3 yr−1 at 90\% confidence level

Ecological and acoustic investigations of jellyfish (Scyphozoa and Hydrozoa)

As the biomass of jellyfish (medusae of the Scyphozoa and Hydrozoa) has risen in numerous locations worldwide, awareness of their potential to exert a controlling influence on marine ecosystems and hinder the recruitment of fish stocks has increased. Medusae are capable of intensive, size–selective, predation on zooplankton, which may alter the composition of the plankton community. Jellyfish are often found in dense layers, up to hundreds of metres thick, which can extend horizontally for hundreds of kilometres. Such aggregations may benefit specialist feeders, such as turtles, that rely upon jellyfish for food and those fish that are able to find refuge under the jellyfish umbrellas. Nonetheless, the predominance of jellyfish in pelagic ecosystems is not generally viewed as desirable; in fact, this situation has been portrayed as the result of pollution and overexploitation of otherwise productive seas. However, jellyfish are sensitive indicators of environmental change, and their populations appear to respond to climatic fluctuations, so jellyfish warrant study for their intrinsic ecosystem role particularly given present concerns over climate change. With growing acceptance that fishery management should take an holistic ‘ecosystem approach’, knowledge of the interactions between jellyfish, fisheries and climate may be vital in progression towards the goal of ecosystem–based sustainable management of fisheries. Unfortunately, due to their gelatinous nature, medusae are difficult to sample using conventional netting techniques and data on changes in distribution and abundance are consequently sparse. Recent studies have demonstrated that medusae can be detected acoustically and that this technique could provide a rapid and cost–effective estimate of their biomass and distribution. This thesis reports my endeavour to demonstrate the ecosystem role of medusae and to develop acoustic techniques to monitor their biomass. Through regession analyses, I link the abundance of medusae (Aurelia aurita, Cyanea lamarckii, and Cyanea capillata) in regions of the North Sea to climatic fluctuations, as quantified by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, and show that medusae may be important indicators of regional ecosystem change. The mechanisms linking climatic fluctuations to ecosystem changes are explored via a correlative modelling approach using General Additive Models; I show that the mechanisms are location dependent and explainable in terms of direct, rapidly responding (intra–annual) influences (surface warming, river run–off, and wind–driven mixing and advection) and longer–term (interannual) oceanographic responses (changes in circulation currents i.e. the northward extent of the gulf stream and relative strength of inflow into the North Sea of the North Atlantic current, Continental Shelf Jet and Arctic waters). I present correlative evidence for a detrimental impact by Aurelia aurita on herring 0–group recruitment, once the influence of interannual change in herring spewing stock biomass on recruitment is factored out through modelling with a Ricker stock–recruitment relationship. Similarly, a commensal relationship between whiting and Cyanea spp. medusae is shown to improve North Sea whiting survival to the 1–group. In progress towards the automated acoustic identification of species, I have developed an in situ discrimination tool that can distinguish between echoes from: Aequorea aequorea; Chrysaora hysoscella; clupeid fish (sardine, anchovy and round herring); and horse mackerel/Cape hake. The technique relies upon characteristic differences in echo strength between frequencies, which are determined for each jellyfish species and finfish group using combined multifrequency acoustic and pelagic trawl samples. This method has facilitated the world’s first acoustic–based estimate of jellyfish biomass in the Namibian Benguela Sea. The 12.2 million tonnes of biomass of medusae (Aequorea aequorea and Chrysaora hysoscella) in the Namibian Benguela Sea was found to be greater than the combined biomass, 3.6 million tonnes, of commercially important fish (horse mackerel, Cape hake, sardines, anchovy, and round herring) in the same area. These results suggest that medusae may have an important role in the Benguela ecosystem that has previously been overlooked and that their biomass should be monitored

How will fisheries management measures contribute towards the attainment of Good Environmental Status for the North Sea ecosystem?

European fisheries management have adopted maximum sustainable yield (MSY) targets for fishing mortality on commercial species to maximise the provision of food. EU member states are also committed to reach Good Environmental Status by 2020 through the Marine Strategy Framework Directive which aims to protect all ecosystem services. So, how will fisheries management measures contribute to ecosystem functioning and the attainment of environmental objectives as measured by improvements in indicators of biodiversity and food webs? We model ecosystem effects of fishing in the North Sea using food web model projections incorporating fishing effort strategies consistent with MSY targets. Correlations between modelled indicators and survey data were significant (p≤0.02). Reduced fishing effort led to increases in size-based indicators and biomasses of benthivores, planktivores and piscivores. However, predation by piscivores depressed bentho-piscivore biomass. Climate warming may also decrease biomasses of bentho-piscivores and piscivores, while planktivores, benthivores and state indicators of size and trophic level may increase. Fisheries management measures will benefit the biodiversity of the fish community in terms of size structure, but not necessarily the food web since decreases in relative biomass of some trophic guilds are expected