Carbon Dioxide Plume Evolution Following Injection into a Depleted Natural Gas Reservoir: Modeling of Conformance Uncertainty Reduction Over Time

The uncertainty in the long-term fate of CO2 injected for geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a significant barrier to the adoption of GCS as a greenhouse gas emission mitigation approach for industry and regulatory agencies alike. Here we present a modeling study that demonstrates that the uncertainty in forecasts of GCS site performance decreases over time as monitoring data are used to inform and update operational models. The approach we take is to consider a case study consisting of a depleted natural gas reservoir that is used for GCS with CO2 injection occurring over 20 years, with a 50-year post-injection site care (PISC) period. We constructed a detailed model of the system and ran this model out to 200 years to generate the actual site data. A series of simpler operational models based on limited data and assumptions about how an actual operator would model such a site are then run and compared against the actual model output at various specific monitoring points after one year, two years, etc. The operational model is then updated and improved using the observations (synthetic data from the actual model) at the same time intervals. We found that both model parameter values and model features needed to be added over time to improve matches to the actual system. These kinds of model adjustments are expected to be a normal part of reservoir engineering and site management at GCS sites. We found that the uncertainty in two key measures related to site performance at various locations decreases with time. This overall conclusion should help allay the concerns of industry and regulators about the uncertainty in GCS operations

A comparative study of a heat and fluid flow problem using three models of different levels of sophistication

AbstractThree mathematical models of different levels of sophistication have been used to study a practical problem on underground heat and fluid flow, associated with the seasonal storage of hot water in an aquifer. A number of scenarios have been examined using the three models. For the basic problem the three models yield similar results, so use of the simplest is preferred. For several variations on the problem, only the more complicated models are adequate to properly address the problem. In general, the choice of an appropriate model is very problem-specific and requires not only experience with modelling methods, but also an understanding of the physics of the problem

Simple Model Representations of Transport in a Complex Fracture and Their Effects on Long-Term Predictions

A complex fracture model for fluid flow and tracer transport was previously developed that incorporates many of the important physical effects of a realistic fracture, including advection through a heterogeneous fracture plane, partitioning of flow into multiple subfractures in the third dimension, and diffusion and sorption into fracture-filling gouge, small altered rock matrix blocks within the fracture zone, and the unaltered semi-infinite rock matrix on both sides of the fracture zone (Tsang and Doughty, 2003). It is common, however, to represent the complex fracture by much simpler models consisting of a single fracture, with a uniform or heterogeneous transmissivity distribution over its plane and bounded on both sides by a homogeneous semi-infinite matrix. Simple-model properties are often inferred from the analysis of short-term (one to a few days) site characterization (SC) tracer-test data. The question addressed in this paper is: How reliable is the temporal upscaling of these simplified models? Are they adequate are for long-term calculations that cover thousands of years? In this study, a particle-tracking approach is used to calculate tracer-test breakthrough curves (BTCs) in a complex fracture model, incorporating all the features described above, for both a short-term SC tracer test and a 10,000-year calculation. The results are considered the 'real-world'. Next, two simple fracture models, one uniform and the other heterogeneous, are introduced. Properties for these simple models are taken either from laboratory data or found by calibration to the short-term SC tracer-test BTCs obtained with the complex fracture model. Then the simple models are used to simulate tracer transport at the long-term time scale. Results show that for the short-term SC tracer test, the BTCs calculated using simple models with laboratory-measured parameters differ significantly from the BTCs obtained with the complex fracture model. By adjusting model properties, the simple models can be calibrated to reproduce the peak arrival time and height of the complex-fracture-model BTCs, but the overall match remains quite poor. Using simple models with short-term SC-calibrated parameters for long-term calculations causes order-of-magnitude errors in tracer BTCs: peak arrival time is 10-100 times too late, and peak height is 50-300 times too small. On the other hand, using simple models with laboratory-measured properties of unfractured rock samples for 10,000-year calculations results in peak arrivals and heights up to a factor of 50 too early and large, respectively. The actual magnitudes of the errors made by using the simple models depend on the parameter values assumed for the complex fracture model, but in general, simple models are not expected to provide reliable long-term predictions. The paper concludes with some suggestions on how to improve long-term prediction calculations

Capacity investigation of brine-bearing sands of the Frio Formation for geologic sequestration of CO2

The capacity of fluvial brine-bearing formations to sequester CO2 is investigated using numerical simulations of CO2 injection and storage. Capacity is defined as the volume fraction of the subsurface available for CO2 storage and is conceptualized as a product of factors that account for two-phase flow and transport processes, formation geometry, formation heterogeneity, and formation porosity. The space and time domains used to define capacity must be chosen with care to obtain meaningful results, especially when comparing different authors’ work. Physical factors that impact capacity include permeability anisotropy and relative permeability to CO2, brine/CO2 density and viscosity ratios, the shape of the trapping structure, formation porosity and the presence of low permeability layering.National Energy Technology LaboratoryBureau of Economic Geolog

Chaotic-Dynamical Conceptual Model to Describe Fluid Flow and Contaminant Transport in a Fractured Vadose Zone

DOE faces the remediation of numerous contaminated sites, such as those at Hanford, INEEL, LLNL, and LBNL, where organic and/or radioactive wastes were intentionally or accidentally released to the vadose zone from surface spills, underground tanks, cribs, shallow ponds, and deep wells. Migration of these contaminants through the vadose zone has led to the contamination of (or threatens to contaminate) underlying groundwater. A key issue in choosing a corrective action plan to clean up contaminated sites is the determination of the location, total mass, mobility and travel time to receptors for contaminants moving in the vadose zone. These problems are difficult to solve in a technically defensible and accurate manner because contaminants travel downward intermittently, through narrow pathways, driven by variations in environmental conditions. These preferential flow pathways can be difficult to find and predict. The primary objective of this project is to determine if and when dynamical chaos theory can be used to investigate infiltration of fluid and contaminant transport in heterogeneous soils and fractured rocks. The objective of this project is being achieved through the following activities: Development of multi scale conceptual models and mathematical and numerical algorithms for flow and transport, which incorporate both (a) the spatial variability of heterogeneous porous and fractured media and (b) the temporal dynamics of flow and transport; Development of appropriate experimental field and laboratory techniques needed to detect diagnostic parameters for chaotic behavior of flow; Evaluation of chaotic behavior of flow in laboratory and field experiments using methods from non-linear dynamics; Evaluation of the impact these dynamics may have on contaminant transport through heterogeneous fractured rocks and soils and remediation efforts. This approach is based on the consideration of multi scale spatial heterogeneity and flow phenomena that are affected by nonlinear dynamics, and in particular, chaotic processes. The scientific and practical value of this approach is that we can predict the range within, which the parameters of flow and transport change with time, which allows us to design and manage the remediation even when we cannot predict the behavior at any point or time

Predictions of long-term behavior of a large-volume pilot test for CO2 geological storage in a saline formation in the Central Valley, California

The long-term behavior of a CO{sub 2} plume injected into a deep saline formation is investigated, focusing on mechanisms that lead to plume stabilization. Key measures are plume migration distance and the time evolution of CO{sub 2} phase-partitioning, which are examined by developing a numerical model of the subsurface at a proposed power plant with CO{sub 2} capture in the San Joaquin Valley, California, where a large-volume pilot test of CO{sub 2} injection will be conducted. The numerical model simulates a four-year CO{sub 2} injection period and the subsequent evolution of the CO{sub 2} plume until it stabilizes. Sensitivity studies are carried out to investigate the effect of poorly constrained model parameters permeability, permeability anisotropy, and residual gas saturation

A Chaotic-Dynamical Conceptual Model to Describe Fluid flow and Contaminant Transport in a Fractured Vadose zone

(1) To determine if and when dynamical chaos theory can be used to investigate infiltration of fluid and contaminant transport in heterogeneous soils and fractured rocks. (2) To introduce a new approach to the multiscale characterization of flow and transport in fractured basalt vadose zones and to develop physically based conceptual models on a hierarchy of scales. The following activities are indicative of the success in meeting the project s objectives: A series of ponded infiltration tests, including (1) small-scale infiltration tests (ponded area 0.5 m2) conducted at the Hell s Half Acre site near Shelley, Idaho, and (2) intermediate-scale infiltration tests (ponded area 56 m2) conducted at the Box Canyon site near Arco, Idaho. Laboratory investigations and modeling of flow in a fractured basalt core. A series of small-scale dripping experiments in fracture models. Evaluation of chaotic behavior of flow in laboratory and field experiments using methods from nonlinear dynamics; Evaluation of the impact these dynamics may have on contaminant transport through heterogeneous fractured rocks and soils, and how it can be used to guide remediation efforts; Development of a conceptual model and mathematical and numerical algorithms for flow and transport that incorporate (1) the spatial variability of heterogeneous porous and fractured media, and (2) the description of the temporal dynamics of flow and transport, both of which may be chaotic. Development of appropriate experimental field and laboratory techniques needed to detect diagnostic parameters for chaotic behavior of flow. This approach is based on the assumption that spatial heterogeneity and flow phenomena are affected by nonlinear dynamics, and in particular, by chaotic processes. The scientific and practical value of this approach is that we can predict the range within which the parameters of flow and transport change with time in order to design and manage the remediation, even when we can not predict the behavior at any point or time