Elevational species shifts in a warmer climate are overestimated when based on weather station data

Strong topographic variation interacting with low stature alpine vegetation creates a multitude of micro-habitats poorly represented by common 2m above the ground meteorological measurements (weather station data). However, the extent to which the actual habitat temperatures in alpine landscapes deviate from meteorological data at different spatial scales has rarely been quantified. In this study, we assessed thermal surface and soil conditions across topographically rich alpine landscapes by thermal imagery and miniature data loggers from regional (2-km2) to plot (1-m2) scale. The data were used to quantify the effects of spatial sampling resolution on current micro-habitat distributions and habitat loss due to climate warming scenarios. Soil temperatures showed substantial variation among slopes (2-3K) dependent on slope exposure, within slopes (3-4K) due to micro-topography and within 1-m2 plots (1K) as a result of plant cover effects. A reduction of spatial sampling resolution from 1 × 1m to 100 × 100m leads to an underestimation of current habitat diversity by 25% and predicts a six-times higher habitat loss in a 2-K warming scenario. Our results demonstrate that weather station data are unable to reflect the complex thermal patterns of aerodynamically decoupled alpine vegetation at the investigated scales. Thus, the use of interpolated weather station data to describe alpine life conditions without considering the micro-topographically induced thermal mosaic might lead to misinterpretation and inaccurate predictio

Enhanced Forecasting Methods, Fat Tails, and their Applications in Finance

This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part introduces a neural network approach that is used to forecast the conditional probability density function of asset returns. The model is unified with the idea of Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). In the second part, an algorithm called "individualized semi-linear regression" is discussed. The algorithm is an improvement of a linear regression, but slope and intercept may depend non-linearly on an arbitrary amount of exogenous variables

Defining potentially conserved RNA regulons of homologous zinc-finger RNA-binding proteins

Glucose inhibition of gluconeogenic growth suppressor 2 protein (Gis2p) and zinc-finger protein 9 (ZNF9) are conserved yeast and human zinc-finger proteins. The function of yeast Gis2p is unknown, but human ZNF9 has been reported to bind nucleic acids, and mutations in the ZNF9 gene cause the neuromuscular disease myotonic dystrophy type 2. To explore the impact of these proteins on RNA regulation, we undertook a systematic analysis of the RNA targets and of the global implications for gene expression

Welthandel: Frei und fair? Handelsabkommen in der Kritik

Vielfach wird behauptet, die globale Einkommensverteilung entwickle sich dramatisch auseinander und die unfaire globale Weltwirtschaftsordnung sei schuld daran. Stehen »fair trade« und »free trade« im Widerspruch zueinander oder nicht? Mit der Diskussion dieser Frage führen Gabriel Felbermayr, ifo Institut, und Wilhelm Kohler, Universität Tübingen, in das Thema ein. Für Christoph Scherrer, Universität Kassel, bieten die modernen Handelsabkommen eher einen »Schutz der Starken statt der Schwachen«. Die neuen Abkommen schützen die kapital- und forschungsstarken Unternehmen und sichern Investoren, die über erhebliche Finanzmittel verfügen. Als eine sinnvolle Alternative erscheint ihm, »das Regelwerk des Welthandels nach entwicklungspolitischen, sozialen und ökologischen Prinzipien auszurichten«. Richard Senti, ETH Zürich, macht darauf aufmerksam, dass mit den regionalen Integrationsabkommen so etwas wie eine zweite Welthandelsordnung entstanden ist, die im Widerstreit mit der WTO steht. Die regionalen Freihandelszonen haben in der jüngsten Vergangenheit ein starkes Eigenleben entwickelt, dass es ihnen schwer fallen werde, sich in die Welthandelsordnung einzubringen. Johannes Wallacher, Hochschule für Philosophie München, sieht sowohl Chancen als auch Risiken. Internationale Handelsbeziehungen bieten Chancen für mehr Wohlstand, aber bedingen auch höheren Anpassungsdruck. Peter-Christian Müller-Graff, Universität Heidelberg, sieht für klassische Freihandelsabkommen, die nur den Markzugang thematisieren, keine Zukunft. Sie bedürfen »der Anreicherung durch Schutzstandards und geeigneter und verlässlicher Mechanismen des Rechtsschutzes für die Marktakteure und gegebenenfalls auch der Mechanismen für Fälle gravierender asymmetrischer Entwicklungen«. Denn der Handel mit Produkten beinhalte mehr als isolierte Außenwirtschaftspolitik, er habe längst Fragen von Gesundheits-, Sozial-, Verbraucher- und Umweltpolitik erreicht. Nach Ansicht von Heribert Dieter, Stiftung Wissenschaf

Streitpunkt Investitionsschutz: Für und Wider des Investitionsschutzes im TTIP-Abkommen

Die Verhandlungen zwischen den USA und der EU über das Transatlantische Freihandels- und Investitionsabkommen (TTIP) sind in den letzten Monaten in das öffentliche Interesse gerückt. Umstritten ist vor allem das vorgesehene Investitionskapitel, das neben der Investitionsliberalisierung Investitionsschutzbestimmungen und Regeln zur Durchsetzung dieser Bestimmungen enthält. Sind geäußerte Befürchtungen, US-Investoren könnten auf diesem Weg europäische Gesetzgebung etwa im Umwelt- und Sozialbereich anfechten, berechtigt? Nach Ansicht von Peter Draper, Tutwa Consulting, Pretoria, und Andreas Freytag, Universität Jena, braucht TTIP zwar einen Investitionsschutz, aber keine internationale Schiedsgerichtsbarkeit. Es sei für die gegenseitige Attraktivität der Investitionsstandorte in keiner Weise von Nachteil, den Schutz von ausländischen Direktinvestitionen vor Diskriminierung und Enteignung zu garantieren. Deshalb sollte TTIP generelle Investitionsschutzklauseln enthalten, sich aber ansonsten auf die nationalen Systeme zur Durchsetzung von Verträgen stützen. Streitfälle würden somit vor den Gerichten des Gastlandes entschieden. Frank Schorkopf, Universität Göttingen, betont, dass hinter den Investitionen Eigentümer, häufig auch Bürger, die über Pensionsfonds und Anlagegesellschaften für das Alter und die Ausbildung ihrer Kinder sparen, stehen. Wer meine, dass Kapitaleigentum eine weniger schutzwürdige Eigentumsform sei, der sei auf das Grundrecht der unternehmerischen Freiheit in der Grundrechtecharta der Europäischen Union verwiesen. Der Eigentumsschutz sei auch zwischen OECD-Staaten ein schutzbedürftiges Menschenrecht. Die USA und die EU sollten die Chance nutzen und das Investitionsschutzkapitel im geplanten Abkommen vorbildhaft ausgestalten. Eingriffe in Investments seien auch heute im öffentlichen Interesse möglich, wenn sie verhältnismäßig seien. Gegenüber der Kritik am Investitionsschutz, die einen versteckten und kostengünstigen Politikwechselvorbehalt rechtferti

Migrating a Well-Established Longitudinal Cohort Database From Oracle SQL to Research Electronic Data Entry (REDCap): Data Management Research and Design Study

BACKGROUND: Providing user-friendly electronic data collection tools for large multicenter studies is key for obtaining high-quality research data. Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) is a software solution developed for setting up research databases with integrated graphical user interfaces for electronic data entry. The Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study (MoCHiV) is a longitudinal cohort study with around 2 million data entries dating back to the early 1980s. Until 2022, data collection in MoCHiV was paper-based. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to provide a user-friendly graphical interface for electronic data entry for physicians and study nurses reporting MoCHiV data. METHODS: MoCHiV collects information on obstetric events among women living with HIV and children born to mothers living with HIV. Until 2022, MoCHiV data were stored in an Oracle SQL relational database. In this project, R and REDCap were used to develop an electronic data entry platform for MoCHiV with migration of already collected data. RESULTS: The key steps for providing an electronic data entry option for MoCHiV were (1) design, (2) data cleaning and formatting, (3) migration and compliance, and (4) add-on features. In the first step, the database structure was defined in REDCap, including the specification of primary and foreign keys, definition of study variables, and the hierarchy of questions (termed "branching logic"). In the second step, data stored in Oracle were cleaned and formatted to adhere to the defined database structure. Systematic data checks ensured compliance to all branching logic and levels of categorical variables. REDCap-specific variables and numbering of repeated events for enabling a relational data structure in REDCap were generated using R. In the third step, data were imported to REDCap and then systematically compared to the original data. In the last step, add-on features, such as data access groups, redirections, and summary reports, were integrated to facilitate data entry in the multicenter MoCHiV study. CONCLUSIONS: By combining different software tools-Oracle SQL, R, and REDCap-and building a systematic pipeline for data cleaning, formatting, and comparing, we were able to migrate a multicenter longitudinal cohort study from Oracle SQL to REDCap. REDCap offers a flexible way for developing customized study designs, even in the case of longitudinal studies with different study arms (ie, obstetric events, women, and mother-child pairs). However, REDCap does not offer built-in tools for preprocessing large data sets before data import. Additional software is needed (eg, R) for data formatting and cleaning to achieve the predefined REDCap data structure

Crescimento de mudas de baru em substrato enriquecido com nitrogênio, fósforo e potássio

O baru (Dipteryx alata Vog.) é uma espécie nativa do cerrado que apresenta potencial para diversos usos, inclusive em programas de recuperação de áreas degradadas. Porém, pouco se conhece sobre seus aspectos silviculturais, principalmente suas exigências nutricionais. O objetivo com esta pesquisa foi avaliar o crescimento inicial de mudas de baru em substrato comercial enriquecido com nitrogênio, fósforo e potássio. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o inteiramente casualizado, com cinco tratamentos e quatro repetições, sendo cada repetição representada por 12 mudas. Os tratamentos foram: controle (somente substrato comercial); adubação nitrogenada (150 g m-3 de N utilizando sulfato de amônio na semeadura + 1,0 kg de sulfato de amônio diluído em 100 L de água aplicado em cober­tura); adubação fosfatada (300 g m-3 de P2O5 utilizando superfosfato simples na semeadura); adubação potássica (100 g m-3 de K2O utilizando cloreto de potássio na semeadura + 0,3 kg de cloreto de potássio diluído em 100 L de água aplicado em cobertura) e; completo (mistura contendo N, P2O5 e K2O, sendo 150, 300 e 100 g m-3, respectivamente, na semeadura, + 1,0 kg de sulfato de amônio e 0,3 kg de cloreto de potássio aplicados em cobertura). O substrato comercial utilizado foi composto por casca de pinus e fibra de coco. As avaliações morfológicas das mudas foram realizadas aos 100 dias após a semeadura e, verificou-se que, o crescimento das mudas de baru não foi alterado pela adição de nutrientes no substrato comercial. Com base nos resultados obtidos, conclui-se que as mudas de baru não apresentaram resposta à aplicação de N, P e K, demonstrando potencial para o plantio em solos com baixos teores desses nutrientes

Hypoxia Triggers the Intravasation of Clustered Circulating Tumor Cells

Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) are shed from solid cancers in the form of single or clustered cells, and the latter display an extraordinary ability to initiate metastasis. Yet, the biological phenomena that trigger the shedding of CTC clusters from a primary cancerous lesion are poorly understood. Here, when dynamically labeling breast cancer cells along cancer progression, we observe that the majority of CTC clusters are undergoing hypoxia, while single CTCs are largely normoxic. Strikingly, we find that vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) targeting leads to primary tumor shrinkage, but it increases intra-tumor hypoxia, resulting in a higher CTC cluster shedding rate and metastasis formation. Conversely, pro-angiogenic treatment increases primary tumor size, yet it dramatically suppresses the formation of CTC clusters and metastasis. Thus, intra-tumor hypoxia leads to the formation of clustered CTCs with high metastatic ability, and a pro-angiogenic therapy suppresses metastasis formation through prevention of CTC cluster generation