The association between maternal hepatitis B e antigen status, as a proxy for perinatal transmission, and the risk of hepatitis B e antigenaemia in Gambian children.

BACKGROUND: Early age at infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) increases the risk of chronic HBV infection. In addition early age at infection may further increase the risk of persistent viral replication beyond its effect on chronicity. The effects of perinatal and early postnatal transmission on the risk of prolonged hepatitis B e antigenaemia in children with chronic HBV infection are not well documented in Africa. We examine these associations using maternal HBV sero-status and the number of HBV-positive older siblings as proxy measures for perinatal and early postnatal transmission, respectively. METHODS: Hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive mothers were identified in six population-based HBV sero-surveys conducted in The Gambia between 1986 and 1990. For every HBeAg-positive mother, a hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive HBeAg-negative mother and HBsAg-negative mother were randomly selected from the population surveyed. These mothers and their family members were tested for HBV sero-markers in a subsequent survey conducted between 1991 and 1993. RESULTS: Thirty-eight HBeAg positive mothers and the same number of HBsAg-positive HBeAg-negative mothers and HBsAg-negative mothers participated in the study. Sixty-nine percent of their children also participated. There was a non-significant positive association between HBeAg prevalence in children and the number of HBeAg-positive older siblings (64.1%, 69.2% and 83.3% in children with 0, 1 and ≥2 HBeAg-positive older siblings, respectively). After adjusting for confounders, having an HBeAg-positive mother was a risk factor for HBeAg positivity in children carrying HBsAg (adjusted OR 4.5, 95% CI: 1.0-19.5, p = 0.04), whilst the number of HBeAg-positive older siblings was not. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal HBeAg was associated with positive HBeAg in children with chronic HBV infection. This suggests that interrupting mother-to-infant transmission in sub-Saharan Africa might help reduce the burden of liver disease. A timely dose of HBV vaccine within 24 hours of birth, as recommended by WHO, should be implemented in sub-Saharan Africa

Analysing Interrupted Time Series with a Control

Abstract Interrupted time series are increasingly being used to evaluate the population-wide implementation of public health interventions. However, the resulting estimates of intervention impact can be severely biased if underlying disease trends are not adequately accounted for. Control series offer a potential solution to this problem, but there is little guidance on how to use them to produce trend-adjusted estimates. To address this lack of guidance, we show how interrupted time series can be analysed when the control and intervention series share confounders, i. e. when they share a common trend. We show that the intervention effect can be estimated by subtracting the control series from the intervention series and analysing the difference using linear regression or, if a log-linear model is assumed, by including the control series as an offset in a Poisson regression with robust standard errors. The methods are illustrated with two examples.</jats:p

Long-lasting effect of oral azithromycin taken by women during labour on infant nutrition: Follow-up cohort of a randomized clinical trial in western Gambia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of administering an oral dose of 2g of azithromycin in Gambian women during labour on infant growth. METHODS: Children whose mothers had been randomized to receive either an oral dose of 2g of azithromycin or placebo during labour were visited at home at the end of infancy by trained study nurses blind to the treatment allocation. The follow-up visit of these cohorts (exposed and non-exposed to azithromycin), which was not part of the original trial design, was conducted between November 2014 and May 2015 when the infants were 11 to 13 months of age. During visits, nurses recorded anthropometrical measurements and transcribed information from the infants' welfare cards. RESULTS: Four-hundred and sixty-five (79.6%) of the 584 infants aged 11-13 months at the time of the survey were recruited. The proportion of children with an age-adjusted Z-score <-2SD for mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) was lower among those exposed to azithromycin [1.3% versus 6.3%, OR = 0.21 95%CI (0.06,0.72), p = 0.006] and there was weak evidence of a difference in the proportion of infants with weight-for-age (WAZ) Z-score <-2SD [7.1% versus 12.1%, OR = 0.58 95%CI (0.33,1.04), p = 0.065]. For all other malnutrition indicators the proportions were similar in the exposed and un-exposed cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that azithromycin in labour may have a beneficial effect in MUAC among children who are below the curve. Larger studies with closer follow-up are warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION (MAIN TRIAL): ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT01800942

Survival of people with clinical diagnosis of dementia in primary care: cohort study

Objectives To estimate survival after a diagnosis of dementia in primary care, compared with people without dementia, and to determine incidence of dementia

Estimation of the burden of active and life-time epilepsy: a meta-analytic approach.

PURPOSE: To estimate the burden of lifetime epilepsy (LTE) and active epilepsy (AE) and examine the influence of study characteristics on prevalence estimates. METHODS: We searched online databases and identified articles using prespecified criteria. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate the median prevalence in developed countries and in urban and rural settings in developing countries. The impact of study characteristics on prevalence estimates was determined using meta-regression models. RESULTS: The median LTE prevalence for developed countries was 5.8 per 1,000 (5th-95th percentile range 2.7-12.4) compared to 15.4 per 1,000 (4.8-49.6) for rural and 10.3 (2.8-37.7) for urban studies in developing countries. The median prevalence of AE was 4.9 per 1,000 (2.3-10.3) for developed countries and 12.7 per 1,000 (3.5-45.5) and 5.9 (3.4-10.2) in rural and urban studies in developing countries. The estimates of burden for LTE and AE in developed countries were 6.8 million (5th-95th percentile range 3.2-14.7) and 5.7 million (2.7-12.2), respectively. In developing countries these were 45 (14-145) million LTE and 17 (10-133) million AE in rural areas and 17 (5-61) million LTE and 10 (5-17) million AE in urban areas. Studies involving all ages or only adults showed higher estimates than pediatric studies. Higher prevalence estimates were also associated with rural location and small study size. CONCLUSIONS: This study estimates the global burden of epilepsy and the proportions with AE, which may benefit from treatment. There are systematic differences in reported prevalence estimates, which are only partially explained by study characteristics

Does malaria cause diarrhoea? A systematic review

Malaria is a systemic febrile disease that may progress to prostration, respiratory distress, encephalopathy, anemia, and death. Malaria is also an established risk factor for invasive bacterial disease caused, in the majority of cases, by invasive enteropathogens and in particular by non-Typhoidal Salmonella (NTS). Whilst various malaria-related pathologies have been implicated in the risk of NTS bacteraemia in animal models, including intestinal dysbiosis and loss of gut homeostasis, clinical evidence is lacking. As a first step in gathering such evidence, we conducted a systematic review of clinical and epidemiological studies reporting the prevalence of diarrhoea among malaria cases and vice versa. Database searches for "plasmodium" and "diarrhoea" identified 1,771 articles; a search for "plasmodium" and "gastroenteritis" identified a further 215 articles. After review, 66 articles specified an association between the search terms and referred primarily, but not exclusively, to Plasmodium falciparum infections. Overall, between 1.6 and 44% of patients with acute malaria infection reported symptoms of diarrhoea (812 of 7,267 individuals, 11%) whereas 5-42% of patients presenting to hospital with diarrhoea had an underlying malaria parasite infection (totaling 749 of 2,937 individuals, 26%). However, given the broad range of estimates, a paucity of purposeful case control or longitudinal studies, and varied or poorly specified definitions of diarrhoea, the literature provides limited evidence to draw any firm conclusions. The relationship between malaria and gastrointestinal disturbance thus remains unclear. Carefully designed case-control studies and prospective longitudinal studies are required to confidently assess the prevalence and significance of intestinal manifestations of malaria parasite infection

Changes in the medical admissions and mortality amongst children in four South African hospitals following the COVID-19 pandemic: A five-year review

Vulnerable children from poor communities with high HIV and Tuberculosis(TB) burdens were impacted by COVID-19 lockdowns. Concern was raised about the extent of this impact and anticipated post-pandemic surges in mortality. Interrupted time series segmented regression analyses were done using routinely collected facility-level data of children admitted for medical conditions at four South African referral hospitals. Monthly admission and mortality data over 60 months from 01 April 2018 to 31 January 2023 was analysed using models which included dummy lockdown level variables, a dummy post-COVID period variable, Fourier terms to account for seasonality, and excess mortality as a proxy for healthcare burden. Of the 45 015 admissions analysed, 1237(2·75%) demised with significant decreases in admissions during all the lockdown levels, with the most significant mean monthly decrease of 450(95%, CI = 657·3, -244·3) p<0·001 in level 5 (the most severe) lockdown. There was evidence of loss of seasonality on a six-month scale during the COVID periods for all admissions (p = 0·002), including under-one-year-olds (p = 0·034) and under-five-year-olds (p = 0·004). No decreases in mortality accompanied decreased admissions. Post-pandemic surges in admissions or mortality were not identified in children with acute gastroenteritis, acute pneumonia and severe acute malnutrition.During the COVID-19 pandemic, paediatric admissions in 4 hospitals serving communities with high levels of HIV, TB and poverty decreased, similar to global experiences; however, there was no change in in-hospital mortality. No post-pandemic surge in admissions or mortality was documented. Differences in the impact of pandemic control measures on the transmission of childhood infections and access to health care may account for differing outcomes seen in our setting compared to the global experiences. Further studies are needed to understand the impact of pandemic control measures on healthcare provision and transmission dynamics and to better inform future responses amongst vulnerable child populations

Identification of factors influencing the Puumala virus seroprevalence within its reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment.

Puumala virus (PUUV) is a major cause of mild to moderate haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and is transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). There has been a high cumulative incidence of recorded human cases in South-eastern Germany since 2004 when the region was first recognized as being endemic for PUUV. As the area is well known for outdoor recreation and the Bavarian Forest National Park (BFNP) is located in the region, the increasing numbers of recorded cases are of concern. To understand the population and environmental effects on the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles we trapped small mammals at 23 sites along an elevation gradient from 317 to 1420m above sea level. Generalized linear mixed effects models(GLMEM) were used to explore associations between the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles and climate and biotic factors. We found that the seroprevalence of PUUV was low (6%-7%) in 2008 and 2009, and reached 29% in 2010. PUUV seroprevalence was positively associated with the local species diversity and deadwood layer, and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, mean annual solar radiation, and herb layer. Based on these findings, an illustrative risk map for PUUV seroprevalence prediction in bank voles was created for an area of the national park. The map will help when planning infrastructure in the national park (e.g., huts, shelters, and trails)

Persistence of Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Vaccine Serotypes and Increase of Nonvaccine Serotypes Among Vaccinated Infants and Their Mothers 5 Years After Introduction of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine 13 in The Gambia.

BACKGROUND: The widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has brought about a dramatic decrease in pneumococci of vaccine serotypes (VTs) but nonvaccine serotypes (NVTs) have emerged. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey (CSS) among infants who received 3 doses of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) and their mothers 5 years (CSS3) after PCV13 introduction. Nasopharyngeal swab samples were collected and cultured for isolation of Streptococcus pneumoniae. Whole-genome sequencing of the nontypeable strains was performed. Data were compared with those from 2 previous surveys conducted before PCV13 introduction (CSS1) and 1 year later (CSS2). RESULTS: Among infants, VT carriage decreased from 33.3% (113/339) in CSS1 to 11.4% (40/351) in CSS3 (P = .001) while NVTs increased from 53.1% (180/339) in CSS1 to 74.4% (261/351) in CSS3 (P < .001). Among mothers, there was a significant decrease in VTs between CSS2 8.4% (29/347) and CSS3 5.6% (19/342) (P = .006). NVTs increased from 16.6% (55/331) in CSS1 to 32.2% (110/342) in CSS3 (P < .001). In CSS3, the most prevalent VTs were 7F in infants and 3 in mothers, and the most prevalent NVTs were serogroup 16 and nontypeables, respectively. Genomic analysis showed that VTs were more likely than NVTs to lose their ability to express the capsule. CONCLUSIONS: Five years after PCV13 introduction, we show both direct (infants) and indirect effects (mothers) of the vaccine, while NVT replacement has occurred in both groups. Ongoing circulation of VTs warrants further study of their relevance in any consideration of a reduced dose schedule