An investigation into the health and well-being of older people in South Africa.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhDPopulations are rapidly growing older across the globe. In South Africa, life expectancy has been on the increase over the past decade, and the proportion of older people is projected to increase dramatically over the coming years. Whilst this is a remarkable achievement, it does not mean that additional years of life will be healthy. To this end, the question being asked by researchers and policy makers is whether people are living longer and healthier lives? In order to answer this important question, health expectancies have been developed which combine morbidity and mortality data into a single index that measures population health. The health expectancies have become standard measures of population health across first world countries. Unfortunately, there is little awareness about their use in developing countries, including South Africa. The aim of this study was to estimate health expectancies based on various objective and subjective measures, in order to give a first comprehensive analysis of the health and wellbeing of older people in South Africa. The data were drawn from two nationally representative surveys namely; the WHO-Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) and the South African National HIV Incidence, Prevalence, Behaviour and Communication Survey (SABSSM) surveys. The results are presented in the form of five manuscripts each submitted for publication. The first manuscript estimates sexually active life expectancies and factors associated with sexual activity. The results show that older people are gaining more years of sexual activity. HIV in older women and chronic conditions in older men reduced odds of sexual activity. The second manuscript found that there was both absolute and relative compression of morbidity in older people between 2005 and 2012, based on self-rated health measure. The third manuscript estimates happy life expectancy and examines factors associated with happiness in older people. Happy life expectancy was greater for men than women, and wealth status was the strongest predictor of happiness. In the fourth manuscript, subjective and objective measures were used to estimate health expectancies. The former showed a more positive outlook compared to the latter. Gender differentials were evident in that although women live longer than men, they spent a greater part of their lifetime in poorer health than men. The fifth manuscript goes a crucial step further, to estimate the contribution of specific diseases to disability. This is important for policymakers as this identifies entry points of interventions aimed at reducing the onset and burden of disability in the elderly population. The most contributors of disability were musculoskeletal and cardiovascular diseases. The thesis concludes that the health of older people is complex and multidimensional, and therefore requires several measures to give a comprehensive analysis. When measured using subjective measures, it can be concluded that the health of older people has been improving. However, a different conclusion could be reached, if objective measures are used. It is important to continue to monitor the health status of older people, and make appropriate interventions in order to improve their health, wellbeing and quality of life

A risk measurement tool for targeted HIV prevention measures amongst young pregnant and lactating women in South Africa

BACKGROUND : We aimed to develop and validate a tool to identify which pregnant/lactating young South African women (≤ 24 years) are at risk of HIV infection. METHODS : Data from three national South African Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) evaluations were used to internally validate three HIV acquisition risk models for young postpartum women. We used univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine which risk factors were significant. Model coefficients were rounded and stratified into risk groups and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was computed. Models were developed to determine which risk factors provided the most predictive accuracy whilst remining clinically meaningful. RESULTS : Data from 9 456 adult and 4 658 young pregnant and lactating women were included in the development and validation data sets, respectively. The optimal model included the following risk factors: age (20–24 years old), informal house structure, two or more pregnancies, mothers who had knowledge of when they received their last HIV test result, no knowledge of the infant’s father’s HIV status, no knowledge of breastfeeding as a mode of MTCT and knowledge of PMTCT programme. The mean AUROC was 0.71 and 0.72 in the development and validation datasets respectively. The optimum cut off score was ≥ 27, having 84% sensitivity, 44% specificity, and identifying 44% of highrisk women eligible for PrEP. CONCLUSION : The optimal model to be used as a possible risk scoring tool to allow for early identification of those pregnant/lactating women most at-risk of HIV acquisition included both statistically as well as clinically meaningful risk factors. A field-based study is needed to test and validate the effectiveness of this targeted approach.The United Nations Children’s Emergency Fund and the National Department of Health as well as the South African National AIDS Council, the European Union (through the National Department of Health), the South African National Research Foundation, and the Global Fund also provided financial support through the SAMRC Adolescent Girls and Young Women Social Impact Bond project.http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcpediatram2023Paediatrics and Child Healt

Infrastructural and human-resource factors associated with return of infant HIV test results to caregivers: secondary analysis of a nationally representative situational assessment, South Africa, 2010

Abstract Background In June 2015, South Africa introduced early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) at birth and ten weeks postpartum. Guidelines recommended return of birth results within a week and ten weeks postpartum results within four weeks. Task shifting was also suggested to increase service coverage. This study aimed to understand factors affecting return of EID results to caregivers. Methods Secondary analysis of data gathered from 571 public-sector primary health care facilities (PHCs) during a nationally representative situational assessment, was conducted. The assessment was performed one to three months prior to facility involvement in the 2010 evaluation of the South African programme to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (SAPMTCTE). Self-reported infrastructural and human resource EID-related data were collected from managers and designated staff using a structured questionnaire. The main outcome variable was ‘EID turn-around-time (TAT) to caregiver’ (caregiver TAT), measured as reported number of weeks from infant blood draw to caregiver receipt of results. This was dichotomized as either short (≤3 weeks) or delayed (> 3 weeks) caregiver TAT. Logit-based risk difference analysis was used to assess factors associated with short caregiver TAT. Analysis included TAT to facility (facility TAT), defined as reported number of weeks from infant blood draw to facility receipt of results. Results Overall, 26.3% of the 571 PHCs reported short caregiver TAT. In adjusted analyses, short caregiver TAT was less achieved when facility TAT was > 7 days (versus ≤7 days) (adjusted risk difference (aRD): − 0.2 (95% confidence interval − 0.3-(− 0.1)), p = 0.006 for 8–14 days and − 0.3 (− 0.5-(− 0.1)), p = 0.006 for > 14 days), and in facilities with staff nurses (compared to those without) (aRD: − 9.4 (− 16.6-(− 2.2), p = 0.011). Conclusion Although short caregiver TAT for EID was only reported in approximately 26% of facilities, these facilities demonstrate that achieving EID TAT of ≤3 weeks is possible, making timely ART initiation within 3 weeks of diagnosis feasible within the public health sector. Our adjusted analyses underpin the need for quick return of results to facilities. They also raise questions around staff mentoring: we hypothesise that facilities with staff nurses were likely to have fewer professional nurses, and thus inadequate senior support

Is elimination of vertical transmission of HIV in high prevalence settings achievable?

Ameena Goga and colleagues argue that more realistic targets are needed to maintain momentum on reducing vertical transmission in countries with a high HIV prevalence.The South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC)http://www.bmj.com/thebmjam2020Paediatrics and Child Healt

Longitudinal adherence to maternal antiretroviral therapy and infant Nevirapine prophylaxis from 6 weeks to 18 months postpartum amongst a cohort of mothers and infants in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Despite improved policies to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT), adherence to maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) and infant Nevirapine prophylaxis (NVP) is low in South Africa. We describe ART adherence amongst a cohort of HIV-positive mothers and HIV-exposed but uninfected infants from 6 weeks until 18 months post-delivery and identify risk factors for nonadherence. METHODS: Data were collected in 2012-2014 through a nationally representative survey of PMTCT effectiveness. Mother-infant pairs were enrolled during the infant's first immunization visit at 6 weeks. Mothers and HIV-exposed infants (2811 pairs) were followed to 18 months at 3-month intervals. Mothers who self-reported being on ART at 6 weeks postpartum (N = 1572 (55.9%)) and infants on NVP at 6 weeks (N = 2370 (84.3%)) were eligible for this analysis and information about their adherence was captured at each interview they attended thereafter. We defined nonadherence within each 3-month interval as self-report of missing > 5% of daily ART/NVP doses, estimated adherence using a Cox survival curve with Andersen & Gill setup for recurring events, and identified risk factors for nonadherence with an extended Cox regression model (separately for mothers and infants) in Stata 13. Results are not nationally representative as this is a subgroup analysis of the follow-up cohort. RESULTS: Amongst mothers on ART at 6 weeks postpartum, cumulative adherence to maternal ART until 18 months was 63.4%. Among infants on NPV at 6 weeks postpartum, adherence to NVP was 74.5%.. Risk factors for nonadherence to maternal ART, controlling for other factors, included mother's age (16-24 years vs. ≥34 years, adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 1.9, 95% CI: 1.4-2.5), nondisclosure of HIV status to anyone (nondisclosure vs. disclosure: aHR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.3-2.1), and timing of ART initiation (initiated ART after delivery vs. initiated ART before delivery: aHR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.3-2.0). Provincial variation was seen in nonadherence to infant NVP, controlling for other factors. CONCLUSION: Maintaining ART adherence until 18 months postpartum remains a crucial challenge, with maternal ART adherence among the six week maternal ART cohort below 65% and infant NVP adherence among breastfeeding infants in this cohort below 75%.This is gravely concerning, given the global policy shift to lifelong ART amongst pregnant and lactating women, and the need for extended infant prophylaxis amongst mothers who are not virally suppressed. Our findings suggest that young mothers and mothers who do not disclose their status should be targeted with messages to improve adherence, and that late maternal ART initiation (after delivery) increases the risk of maternal nonadherence

Eliminating HIV transmission through breast milk from women taking antiretroviral drugs

publishedVersio

How are countries in sub-Saharan African monitoring the impact of programmes to prevent vertical transmission of HIV?

Vertical transmission of HIV can occur during pregnancy, delivery, or through breast feeding. The main driver of vertical transmission is a high maternal viral load. Between 2002 and 2016, low and middle income countries (LMICs) in sub-Saharan Africa with high HIV prevalence improved their policies to prevent vertical transmission of HIV. In 2002, national policies recommended single dose nevirapine at the onset of labour, with limited or no breast feeding. By 2016, all Global Plan priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa (where 90% of the world’s HIV positive pregnant women live) had adopted Option B+ with promotion of breast feeding. Option B+ was a dramatic policy change recommending lifelong triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all pregnant and lactating women living with HIV. The aim is to protect the child from HIV infection, ensure the mother’s future health, and prevent horizontal transmission of HIV.The South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC)http://www.bmj.com/thebmjam2020Paediatrics and Child Healt

Closing the gaps to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) in South Africa : understanding MTCT case rates, factors that hinder the monitoring and attainment of targets, and potential game changers

BACKGROUND. Ninety percent of the world’s HIV-positive pregnant women live in 22 countries. These 22 countries, including South Africa (SA) have prioritised the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (EMTCT). Since 2016 all 22 countries recommend lifelong antiretroviral treatment for all HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women. To measure South African national, provincial and district-level progress towards attaining EMTCT, we analysed the number of in utero (IU) paedatric HIV infections per 100 000 live births (IU case rate), and synthesised factors hindering the monitoring of EMTCT progress and attainment from the viewpoint of provincial and district-level healthcare managers and implementers. We highlight potential innovations to strengthen health systems and improve EMTCT programme delivery. METHODS. We reviewed national-, provincial- and district-level birth HIV testing data from routine National Health Laboratory Services (NHLS) records between April 2016 and March 2017. To obtain a qualitative perspective from healthcare managers and implementers, we synthesised information from the nine 2016 provincial-level EMTCT stock-taking workshops. These workshops involve key provincial and district-level staff, mentors and supporting partners. Lastly, we highlight potential innovations presented at these workshops to overcome operational challenges. RESULTS. The national IU mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rate was 0.9%, which translated to an IU case rate of 245 HIV-positive neonates per 100 000 live births. Provincial IU percent MTCT risk ranged from 0.6% to 1.3%, with IU case rates ranging between 168 and 325 cases per 100 000 live births. District-level IU percent MTCT risk ranged from 0.4% to 1.9%. Potential game changers include: pre-conception counselling to optimise maternal-partner health, weekly dissemination of HIV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and viral load reports from the NHLS to specific individuals who trace mothers and infants needing care, use of ward-based outreach teams and community caregivers to trace HIV-infected mothers and their infants to link them into care, inclusion of a unique identifier in patient-held infant Road to Health booklets to facilitate infant tracing and continuous quality improvement (CQI) processes within facilities and districts and implementation of an HIV-positive baby tool to understand the characteristics and risks of HIV-positive infants. On an ecological level, provinces and districts using community-based approaches and CQI methodology seemed to have lower MTCT and IU case rates. CONCLUSIONS. More quantitative analyses are needed to understand what proportion of the success can be attributed to community-based and CQI approaches and the impact of the potential game changers on progress towards EMTCT.The South African Medical Research Council paid for the time of AG, WC and NN, and, in partnership with UNICEF, covered the cost of this publication.http://www.samj.org.zaam2019Paediatrics and Child Healt

What will it take for the Global Plan priority countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV?

BACKGROUND: The 2016 'Start Free, Stay Free, AIDS Free' global agenda, builds on the 2011-2015 'Global Plan'. It prioritises 22 countries where 90% of the world's HIV-positive pregnant women live and aims to eliminate vertical  transmission of HIV (EMTCT) and to keep mothers alive. By 2019, no Global Plan priority country had achieved EMTCT; however, 11 non-priority countries had. This paper synthesises the characteristics of the first four countries validated for EMTCT, and of the 21 Global Plan priority countries located in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We consider what drives vertical transmission of HIV (MTCT) in the 21 SSA Global Plan priority countries. METHODS: A literature review, using PubMed, Science direct and the google search engine was conducted to obtain global and national-level information on current HIV-related context and health system characteristics of the first four EMTCT-validated countries and the 21 SSA Global Plan priority countries. Data representing only one clinic, hospital or region were excluded. Additionally, key global experts working on EMTCT were contacted to obtain clarification on published data. We applied three theories (the World Health Organisation's building blocks to strengthen health systems, van Olmen's Health System Dynamics framework and Baral's socio-ecological model for HIV risk) to understand and explain the differences between EMTCT-validated and non-validated countries. Additionally, structural equation modelling (SEM) and linear regression were used to explain associations between infant HIV exposure, access to antiretroviral therapy and two outcomes: (i) percent MTCT and (iii) number of new paediatric HIV infections per 100 000 live births (paediatric HIV case rate). RESULTS: EMTCT-validated countries have lower HIV prevalence, less breastfeeding, fewer challenges around leadership, governance within the health sector or country, infrastructure and service delivery compared with Global Plan priority countries. Although by 2016 EMTCT-validated countries and Global Plan priority countries had adopted a public health approach to HIV prevention, recommending lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women, EMCT-validated countries had also included contact tracing such as assisted partner notification, and had integrated maternal and child health (MCH) and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services, with services for HIV infection, sexually transmitted infections, and viral hepatitis. Additionally, Global Plan priority countries have limited data on key SRH indicators such as unmet need for family planning, with variable coverage of antenatal care, HIV testing and triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) and very limited contact tracing. Structural equation modelling (SEM) and linear regression analysis demonstrated that ART access protects against percent MTCT (p<0.001); in simple linear regression it is 53% protective against percent MTCT. In contrast, SEM demonstrated that the case rate was driven by the number of HIV exposed infants (HEI) i.e. maternal HIV prevalence (p<0.001). In linear regression models, ART access alone explains only 17% of the case rate while HEI alone explains 81% of the case rate. In multiple regression, HEI and ART access accounts for 83% of the case rate, with HEI making the most contribution (coef. infant HIV exposure=82.8, 95% CI: 64.6, 101.1, p<0.001 vs coef. ART access=-3.0, 95% CI: -6.2, 0.3, p=0.074). CONCLUSION: Reducing infant HIV exposure, is critical to reducing the paediatric HIV case rate; increasing ART access is critical to reduce percent MTCT. Additionally, our study of four validated countries underscores the importance of contact tracing, strengthening programme monitoring, leadership and governance, as these are potentially-modifiable factors