Risk Spillovers in Oil-Related CDS, Stock and Credit Markets

This paper examines risk transmission and migration among six US measures of credit and market risk during the full period 2004-2011 period and the 2009-2011 recovery subperiod, with a focus on four sectors related to the highly volatile oil price. There are more long-run equilibrium risk relationships and short-run causal relationships among the four oil-related Credit Default Swaps (CDS) indexes, the (expected equity volatility) VIX index and the (swaption expected volatility) SMOVE index for the full period than for the recovery subperiod. The auto sector CDS spread is the most error-correcting in the long run and also leads in the risk discovery process in the short run. On the other hand, the CDS spread of the highly regulated, natural monopoly utility sector does not error correct. The four oil-related CDS spread indexes are responsive to VIX in the short- and long-run, while no index is sensitive to SMOVE which, in turn, unilaterally assembles risk migration from VIX. The 2007-2008 Great Recession seems to have led to “localization” and less migration of credit and market risk in the oil-related sectors.Risk; Sectoral CDS; VIX; SMOVE; MOVE; Adjustments

Reproductive Contributions of Foreign Wives in Taiwan: Similarities and Differences among Major Source Countries

In light of the entrenchment of sub-replacement fertility and the sharp increase in the stock of foreign wives in Taiwan in recent years, this research studies the reproductive contributions of Taiwan’s foreign wives from the top five source countries (China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines), based mainly on an application of a multinomial logit model to the micro data of the 2003 census of foreign wives. Our main findings are as follows. First, the overall fertility level of the foreign wives was probably somewhat higher than that of the native-born women and definitely lower than the replacement level. Second, among the five nationalities, those from China were much less reproductive than those from the other countries, mainly because the former were more prone to (1) having a rather old marriage age, (2) having a very large spousal age gap, (3) being separated or divorced, (4) having their current marriage being their second marriage, and (5) having a veteran as the husband. Third, among the four Southeast Asian nationalities, those from Indonesia and the Philippines were more reproductive than those from Thailand and Vietnam. This contrast was a muted reflection of the fertility difference in countries of origin. Fourth, for every nationality, marriage duration and marriage age were the most powerful explanatory factors and must be included in the model to avoid getting misleading estimated coefficients of other less powerful explanatory factors, whereas current age was a spurious factor that should not be used in the model. Fifth, in the context of marriage duration and marriage age, the explanatory factors with rather strong explanatory powers for at least one nationality included spousal age gap, marital status, remarriage status, co-residence with parent, and wife’s employment status. Sixth, the expected negative effect of wife’s educational attainment on lifetime fertility turned out to be either non-existent or modest. In particular, it had practically no effect on the probability of being childless. These findings implied that getting better educated foreign wives could increase the quality of their children with little or no reduction in the number of their children and in their probability of being childlessASEAN countries, China, international marriage, international migration, fertility, Taiwan

Risk Spillovers in Oil-Related CDS, Stock and Credit Markets

This paper examines risk transmission and migration among six US measures of credit and market risk during the full period 2004-2011 period and the 2009-2011 recovery subperiod, with a focus on four sectors related to the highly volatile oil price. There are more long-run equilibrium risk relationships and short-run causal relationships among the four oil-related Credit Default Swaps (CDS) indexes, the (expected equity volatility) VIX index and the (swaption expected volatility) SMOVE index for the full period than for the recovery subperiod. The auto sector CDS spread is the most error-correcting in the long run and also leads in the risk discovery process in the short run. On the other hand, the CDS spread of the highly regulated, natural monopoly utility sector does not error correct. The four oil-related CDS spread indexes are responsive to VIX in the short- and long-run, while no index is sensitive to SMOVE which, in turn, unilaterally assembles risk migration from VIX. The 2007-2008 Great Recession seems to have led to “localization” and less migration of credit and market risk in the oil-related sectors.Risk, Sectoral CDS, VIX, SMOVE, MOVE, Adjustments.

Reproductive contributions of Taiwan´s foreign wives from the top five source countries

This research studies the reproductive contributions of Taiwan’s foreign wives from China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, based on applications of the multinomial logit model to the micro data of the 2003 Census of Foreign Spouses. Wives from China are found to have the lowest lifetime fertility of 1.4 children, mainly because they were more prone to marry later, have a very large spousal age gap, be separated or divorced, and have their current marriage be their second marriage. The effect of wife’s educational attainment on lifetime fertility turned out to be either modest or nonexistent.fertility, international marriage, international migration, reproductive contribution, Taiwan

Poly[(μ6-benzene-1,3,5-tricarboxyl­ato-κ6 O 1:O 1′:O 3:O 3′:O 5:O 5′)tris­(N,N-dimethyl­formamide-κO)tris­(μ3-formato-κ2 O:O′)trimagnesium(II)]

The title complex, [Mg3(CHO2)3(C9H3O6)(C3H7NO)3]n, exhib­its a two-dimensional structure parallel to (001), which is built up from the MgII atoms and bridging carboxyl­ate ligands (3 symmetry). The MgII atom is six-coordinated by one O atom from a dimethyl­formamide mol­ecule, two O atoms from two μ6-benzene-1,3,5-tricarboxyl­ate ligands and three O atoms from three μ3-formate ligands in a distorted octa­hedral geometry

Hidden Trends in 90 Years of Harvard Business Review

In this paper, we demonstrate and discuss results of our mining the abstracts of the publications in Harvard Business Review between 1922 and 2012. Techniques for computing n-grams, collocations, basic sentiment analysis, and named-entity recognition were employed to uncover trends hidden in the abstracts. We present findings about international relationships, sentiment in HBR's abstracts, important international companies, influential technological inventions, renown researchers in management theories, US presidents via chronological analyses.Comment: 6 pages, 14 figures, Proceedings of 2012 International Conference on Technologies and Applications of Artificial Intelligenc