How Volatile is ENSO?

The El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is a periodical phenomenon of climatic interannual variability, which could be measured through either the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Index. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze these two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in ENSO. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately. The empirical results show that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for SST are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with an even stronger El Nino or La Nina in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated.ENSO; SOI; SOT; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Volatility; GARCH; GJR; EGARCH

How Volatile is ENSO?

The El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is a periodical phenomenon of climatic interannual variability, which could be measured through either the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Index. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze these two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in ENSO. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately. The empirical results show that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for SST are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with an even stronger El Nino or La Nina in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated.ENSO, SOI, SOT, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Volatility, GARCH, GJR, EGARCH.

RTHK TV programming and scheduling under nowadays TV markets

published_or_final_versionMedia, Culture and Creative CitiesMasterMaster of Social Sciences in Media, Culture and Creative Citie

Graphical PID tuning method for uncertain fractional-order multivariable systems

In this paper, a graphical tuning method for controllers parameters based on the open-loop fractional transfer function (FO-EOTF) method is proposed for fractional-order parameter uncertain multivariable system. The FO-EOTF method is proposed to transform the parameter uncertain fractional-order multivariable system into a set of independent parameter uncertain fractional-order univariate systems and determine the parameters regions of the univariate systems. The gain phase margin tester is used to further guarantee the robust performance of the controlled system. Finally, simulation result from the numerical simulation is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method

Fair trade in insurance industry: Premium determination of Taiwan automobile insurance

This paper examines premium determination of voluntary automobile insurance policy and risk classification under a heavily regulated rating system in Taiwan. We investigate the distribution of actual premium and pure premium, based on unique data to test if premium reflect appropriate gender-age factor. The reasonableness of loading and the difference in driving exposure between policyholder and driver are investigated for three different types of policy. An adjustment of gender-age premium coefficients is called for

Perceived Executive Leader’s Integrity in Terms of Servant and Ethical Leadership on Job Burnout among Christian Healthcare Service Providers: Test of a Structural Equation Model

Integrity is a key component in the definition of servant and ethical leadership, and honesty, authenticity, sincerity, respect and righteousness are major virtues and descriptors that make up this leadership integrity. Many leadership studies indicate that the lack of integrity from a leader, as well as the perception of the lack thereof, will exhaust the employees’ exhilaration, degrade their physical and psychological health, and lead to frustration, fatigue and anxiety. For human service professions, this has become an occupational hazard for human service professions and is regarded as the last straw for workers, causing people to burnout and quit their jobs. 325 Full-time employees of the Metroplex Adventist Hospital were surveyed. Structural Equation Model (SEM) analysis showed that a leader’s integrity offers two virtues: perceived positive integrity behavior and perceived negative integrity behavior, both of which significantly correlated with job burnout in terms of emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and personal accomplishment. Excluding ethnic backgrounds, some of the most significant demographic variables to determine a leader’s integrity and job burnout include Years of Service, gender and age. Employees with income below $29,999, have 1-5 years of service, who are Asian, and are of female gender have experienced the highest score of job burnout and perceived highest score of negative integrity behavior and lowest score of perceived positive integrity behavior