Using ensemble decision tree model to predict student dropout in computing science

Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) professionals play a key role in the development of an economy. STEM workers are critical thinkers as they contribute immensely by driving innovations. There is a high demand for professionals in the STEM fields but there is also a shortage of human resource in these areas. One way to reduce this problem is by identifying students who are at-risk of dropping out and then intervening with focused strategies that will ensure that these students remain in same the programme till graduation. Therefore, this research aims to use a data mining classification technique to identify students who are at-risk of dropping out from their Computing Science (CS) degree programmes. The Random Forest (RF) decision tree algorithm is used to learn patterns from historical data about first-year undergraduate CS students who are enrolled in a tertiary institute in the South Pacific. A number of factors are used which comprise of students demographic information, previous education background, financial information as well as data about students' academic interaction. Feature selection is performed to determine which factors have greater influence in students' decision in dropping out. Cross-validation techniques are used to ensure that the models are not over-fitted. Two models were built using a 5fold and 10-fold cross-validation and the results were compared using several measures of model performance. The results show that the factors corresponding to students' academic performance in a first-year programming course had the greatest impact student attrition in CS

Toxicity of unsaturated fatty acids to the biohydrogenating ruminal bacterium, Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Circulating extracellular vesicles induce monocyte dysfunction and are associated with sepsis and high mortality in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is common in cirrhosis and is often a result of immune dysregulation. Specific stimuli and pathways of inter-cellular communications between immune cells in cirrhosis and sepsis are incompletely understood. Immune cell-derived Extracellular Vesicles (EV) were studied to understand mechanisms of sepsis in cirrhosis. METHODS: Immune-cell derived EV were measured in cirrhosis patients [Child-Turcotte-Pugh (Child) score A, n=15; B n=16; C n=43 and Child-C with sepsis (n=38)], and healthy controls (HC, n=11). In-vitro and in-vivo functional relevance of EV in cirrhosis and associated sepsis was investigated. RESULTS: Monocyte, neutrophil and hematopoietic stem cells associated EV progressively increased with higher Child score (p0.3, p<0.001), which further increased in Child C sepsis than without sepsis(p<0.001); monocyte EV showing the highest association with disease stage [p=0.013; Odds ratio-4.14(1.34-12.42)]. A threshold level of monocyte EV of 53/µl predicted mortality in patients of Child C with sepsis [Odds ratio-6.2 (2.4-15.9), AUROC=0.76, p<0.01]. In vitro EV from cirrhotic with sepsis compared without sepsis, induced mobilization arrest in healthy monocytes within 4 hours (p=0.004), reduced basal oxygen consumption rate (p<0.001) and induced pro-inflammatory genes (p<0.05). The septic-EV on adoptive transfer to C57/BL6J mice, induced sepsis like condition within 24h with leukocytopenia (p=0.005), intrahepatic inflammation with increased CD11b+ cells (p=0.03) and bone marrow hyperplasia (p<0.01). CONCLUSION: Extracellular vesicles induce functional impairment in circulating monocytes and contribute to the development and perpetuation of sepsis. High levels of monocyte EV correlate with mortality and can help early stratification of sicker patients

Agricultural Produce Supply Chain Network of Capsicum: Empirical Evidence from India

Vegetables are important for both nutritional and economic stability and contribute significantly to the agricultural landscape of India. The demand for vegetables is rising, driven by population growth and increased awareness of their benefits. This empirical study highlights the dynamics of agricultural production supply chain networks of capsicum crops in the northwestern Himalayan region, specifically Himachal Pradesh, India. The study employs the Acharya approach to analyse the various marketing channels utilized by farmers in the capsicum supply chain. This methodology sheds light on the economic nuances at each stage and examines marketing channels, costs, margins, price spread and marketing efficiency. Simultaneously, the Garrett ranking method is applied to discern and prioritize constraints faced by farmers. This comprehensive approach ensures a nuanced understanding of the economic and logistical intricacies of capsicum marketing. The analysis of marketing channels reveals five distinct pathways employed by farmers, with Channel-C (Producer–Commission Agent–Retailer–Consumer) standing out as the most dominant, representing 47.25% of the total quantity. Moreover, Channel-A (Producer–Consumer) proves to be the most cost-effective for producers and boasts the highest producer price, while Channel-C, involving commission agents, incurs higher costs. This suggests a preference for intermediaries, emphasizing factors like market access and negotiation skills, whereas Channel-D (Producer–Local Trader–Wholesaler–Retailer–Consumer) has the highest gross marketing margin, emphasizing the trade-offs between efficiency and transaction volume. The results indicate that while Channel-A is the most efficient, it is not the preferred choice due to the lower transaction quantity. Further, the absence of market consultation services, inadequate road infrastructure, high commission charges, nonremunerative prices and untimely availability of vehicles are the major constraints in marketing. The findings of the study call for targeted interventions to create a more robust and farmer-friendly marketing environment for capsicum crops in the region. The study proposes targeted recommendations, emphasizing collaborative efforts between stakeholders, government bodies and farmers. This research contributes to the academic discourse and also offers actionable insights for researchers and policymakers, fostering sustainability, profitability and equity within the capsicum supply chain

HLA-DQA1*05 carriage associated with development of anti-drug antibodies to infliximab and adalimumab in patients with Crohn's Disease

Anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapies are the most widely used biologic drugs for treating immune-mediated diseases, but repeated administration can induce the formation of anti-drug antibodies. The ability to identify patients at increased risk for development of anti-drug antibodies would facilitate selection of therapy and use of preventative strategies.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on Publisher URL to access the full-text

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.Peer reviewe

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Mechanisms and management of loss of response to anti-TNF therapy for patients with Crohn's disease: 3-year data from the prospective, multicentre PANTS cohort study

This is the final version. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. Background We sought to report the effectiveness of infliximab and adalimumab over the first 3 years of treatment and to define the factors that predict anti-TNF treatment failure and the strategies that prevent or mitigate loss of response. Methods Personalised Anti-TNF therapy in Crohn’s disease (PANTS) is a UK-wide, multicentre, prospective observational cohort study reporting the rates of effectiveness of infliximab and adalimumab in anti-TNF-naive patients with active luminal Crohn’s disease aged 6 years and older. At the end of the first year, sites were invited to enrol participants still receiving study drug into the 2-year PANTS-extension study. We estimated rates of remission across the whole cohort at the end of years 1, 2, and 3 of the study using a modified survival technique with permutation testing. Multivariable regression and survival analyses were used to identify factors associated with loss of response in patients who had initially responded to anti-TNF therapy and with immunogenicity. Loss of response was defined in patients who initially responded to anti-TNF therapy at the end of induction and who subsequently developed symptomatic activity that warranted an escalation of steroid, immunomodulatory, or anti-TNF therapy, resectional surgery, or exit from study due to treatment failure. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03088449, and is now complete. Findings Between March 19, 2014, and Sept 21, 2017, 389 (41%) of 955 patients treated with infliximab and 209 (32%) of 655 treated with adalimumab in the PANTS study entered the PANTS-extension study (median age 32·5 years [IQR 22·1–46·8], 307 [51%] of 598 were female, and 291 [49%] were male). The estimated proportion of patients in remission at the end of years 1, 2, and 3 were, for infliximab 40·2% (95% CI 36·7–43·7), 34·4% (29·9–39·0), and 34·7% (29·8–39·5), and for adalimumab 35·9% (95% CI 31·2–40·5), 32·9% (26·8–39·2), and 28·9% (21·9–36·3), respectively. Optimal drug concentrations at week 14 to predict remission at any later timepoints were 6·1–10·0 mg/L for infliximab and 10·1–12·0 mg/L for adalimumab. After excluding patients who had primary non-response, the estimated proportions of patients who had loss of response by years 1, 2, and 3 were, for infliximab 34·4% (95% CI 30·4–38·2), 54·5% (49·4–59·0), and 60·0% (54·1–65·2), and for adalimumab 32·1% (26·7–37·1), 47·2% (40·2–53·4), and 68·4% (50·9–79·7), respectively. In multivariable analysis, loss of response at year 2 and 3 for patients treated with infliximab and adalimumab was predicted by low anti-TNF drug concentrations at week 14 (infliximab: hazard ratio [HR] for each ten-fold increase in drug concentration 0·45 [95% CI 0·30–0·67], adalimumab: 0·39 [0·22–0·70]). For patients treated with infliximab, loss of response was also associated with female sex (vs male sex; HR 1·47 [95% CI 1·11–1·95]), obesity (vs not obese 1·62 [1·08–2·42]), baseline white cell count (1·06 [1·02–1·11) per 1 × 10⁹ increase in cells per L), and thiopurine dose quartile. Among patients treated with adalimumab, carriage of the HLA-DQA1*05 risk variant was associated with loss of response (HR 1·95 [95% CI 1·17–3·25]). By the end of year 3, the estimated proportion of patients who developed anti-drug antibodies associated with undetectable drug concentrations was 44·0% (95% CI 38·1–49·4) among patients treated with infliximab and 20·3% (13·8–26·2) among those treated with adalimumab. The development of antidrug antibodies associated with undetectable drug concentrations was significantly associated with treatment without concomitant immunomodulator use for both groups (HR for immunomodulator use: infliximab 0·40 [95% CI 0·31–0·52], adalimumab 0·42 [95% CI 0·24–0·75]), and with carriage of HLA-DQA1*05 risk variant for infliximab (HR for carriage of risk variant: infliximab 1·46 [1·13–1·88]) but not for adalimumab (HR 1·60 [0·92–2·77]). Concomitant use of an immunomodulator before or on the day of starting infliximab was associated with increased time without the development of anti-drug antibodies associated with undetectable drug concentrations compared with use of infliximab alone (HR 2·87 [95% CI 2·20–3·74]) or introduction of an immunomodulator after anti-TNF initiation (1·70 [1·11–2·59]). In years 2 and 3, 16 (4%) of 389 patients treated with infliximab and 11 (5%) of 209 treated with adalimumab had adverse events leading to treatment withdrawal. Nine (2%) patients treated with infliximab and two (1%) of those treated with adalimumab had serious infections in years 2 and 3. Interpretation Only around a third of patients with active luminal Crohn’s disease treated with an anti-TNF drug were in remission at the end of 3 years of treatment. Low drug concentrations at the end of the induction period predict loss of response by year 3 of treatment, suggesting higher drug concentrations during the first year of treatment, particularly during induction, might lead to better long-term outcomes. Anti-drug antibodies associated with undetectable drug concentrations of infliximab, but not adalimumab, can be predicted by carriage of HLA-DQA1*05 and mitigated by concomitant immunomodulator use for both drugs.Guts UKCrohn’s and Colitis UKCure Crohn’s ColitisAbbVieMerck Sharp and DohmeNapp PharmaceuticalsPfizerCelltrion Healthcar

International Consensus Statement on Rhinology and Allergy: Rhinosinusitis

Background: The 5 years since the publication of the first International Consensus Statement on Allergy and Rhinology: Rhinosinusitis (ICAR‐RS) has witnessed foundational progress in our understanding and treatment of rhinologic disease. These advances are reflected within the more than 40 new topics covered within the ICAR‐RS‐2021 as well as updates to the original 140 topics. This executive summary consolidates the evidence‐based findings of the document. Methods: ICAR‐RS presents over 180 topics in the forms of evidence‐based reviews with recommendations (EBRRs), evidence‐based reviews, and literature reviews. The highest grade structured recommendations of the EBRR sections are summarized in this executive summary. Results: ICAR‐RS‐2021 covers 22 topics regarding the medical management of RS, which are grade A/B and are presented in the executive summary. Additionally, 4 topics regarding the surgical management of RS are grade A/B and are presented in the executive summary. Finally, a comprehensive evidence‐based management algorithm is provided. Conclusion: This ICAR‐RS‐2021 executive summary provides a compilation of the evidence‐based recommendations for medical and surgical treatment of the most common forms of RS