Couts et benefices du passage d'une faible inflation a la stabilite des prix. Une comparaison internationale.

Cet article évalue, en reprenant l'approche de Feldstein [1996], quelques-uns des coûts et des bénéfices du passage d'une faible inflation (2%) à une inflation nulle pour les économies française, allemande, britannique, espagnole et américaine. Cette approche met l'accent sur les distorsions dans les décisions d'épargne et d'investissement en logement engendrées par l'indexation imparfaite du système fiscal. Des études récentes ont montré qu'un passage d'une inflation de 2% à la stabilité des prix conduisait à des gains en surplus des ménages de l'ordre de 1,05% du PIB par an aux Etats-Unis, de 1,4% en Allemagne, de 1,7% en Espagne et de seulement 0,21% au Royaume-Uni. Nous montrons que ces différences d'évaluation relèvent en grande partie du choix de l'élasticité de l'épargne au taux d'intérêt et de spécificités de la fiscalité de ces pays. En France, sur la base de la fiscalité de l'épargne prévalant en 1998, le bénéfice annuel du retour observé à la stabilité des prix serait de 0,66%.Inflation ; prix ; cycles economiques.

Expected-value bias in routine third-trimester growth scans.

OBJECTIVES: Operators performing fetal growth scans are usually aware of the gestational age of the pregnancy, which may lead to expected-value bias when performing biometric measurements. We aimed to evaluate the incidence of expected-value bias in routine fetal growth scans and assess its impact on standard biometric measurements. METHODS: We collected prospectively full-length video recordings of routine ultrasound growth scans coupled with operator eye tracking. Expected value was defined as the gestational age at the time of the scan, based on the estimated due date that was established at the dating scan. Expected-value bias was defined as occurring when the operator looked at the measurement box on the screen during the process of caliper adjustment before saving a measurement. We studied the three standard biometric planes on which measurements of head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL) are obtained. We evaluated the incidence of expected-value bias and quantified the impact of biased measurements. RESULTS: We analyzed 272 third-trimester growth scans, performed by 16 operators, during which a total of 1409 measurements (354 HC, 703 AC and 352 FL; including repeat measurements) were obtained. Expected-value bias occurred in 91.4% of the saved standard biometric plane measurements (85.0% for HC, 92.9% for AC and 94.9% for FL). The operators were more likely to adjust the measurements towards the expected value than away from it (47.7% vs 19.7% of measurements; P < 0.001). On average, measurements were corrected by 2.3 ± 5.6, 2.4 ± 10.4 and 3.2 ± 10.4 days of gestation towards the expected gestational age for the HC, AC, and FL measurements, respectively. Additionally, we noted a statistically significant reduction in measurement variance once the operator was biased (P = 0.026). Comparing the lowest and highest possible estimated fetal weight (using the smallest and largest biased HC, AC and FL measurements), we noted that the discordance, in percentage terms, was 10.1% ± 6.5%, and that in 17% (95% CI, 12-21%) of the scans, the fetus could be considered as small-for-gestational age or appropriate-for-gestational age if using the smallest or largest possible measurements, respectively. Similarly, in 13% (95% CI, 9-16%) of scans, the fetus could be considered as large-for-gestational age or appropriate-for-gestational age if using the largest or smallest possible measurements, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: During routine third-trimester growth scans, expected-value bias frequently occurs and significantly changes standard biometric measurements obtained. © 2019 the Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology

Temperature-extended Jarzynski relation: Application to the numerical calculation of the surface tension

We consider a generalization of the Jarzynski relation to the case where the system interacts with a bath for which the temperature is not kept constant but can vary during the transformation. We suggest to use this relation as a replacement to the thermodynamic perturbation method or the Bennett method for the estimation of the order-order surface tension by Monte Carlo simulations. To demonstrate the feasibility of the method, we present some numerical data for the 3D Ising model

Probability distributions for polymer translocation

We study the passage (translocation) of a self-avoiding polymer through a membrane pore in two dimensions. In particular, we numerically measure the probability distribution Q(T) of the translocation time T, and the distribution P(s,t) of the translocation coordinate s at various times t. When scaled with the mean translocation time , Q(T) becomes independent of polymer length, and decays exponentially for large T. The probability P(s,t) is well described by a Gaussian at short times, with a variance that grows sub-diffusively as t^{\alpha} with \alpha~0.8. For times exceeding , P(s,t) of the polymers that have not yet finished their translocation has a non-trivial stable shape.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Efficient Ultrasound Image Analysis Models with Sonographer Gaze Assisted Distillation.

Recent automated medical image analysis methods have attained state-of-the-art performance but have relied on memory and compute-intensive deep learning models. Reducing model size without significant loss in performance metrics is crucial for time and memory-efficient automated image-based decision-making. Traditional deep learning based image analysis only uses expert knowledge in the form of manual annotations. Recently, there has been interest in introducing other forms of expert knowledge into deep learning architecture design. This is the approach considered in the paper where we propose to combine ultrasound video with point-of-gaze tracked for expert sonographers as they scan to train memory-efficient ultrasound image analysis models. Specifically we develop teacher-student knowledge transfer models for the exemplar task of frame classification for the fetal abdomen, head, and femur. The best performing memory-efficient models attain performance within 5% of conventional models that are 1000× larger in size

Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area.

We present a comparable set of results on the monetary transmission channels on firm investment for the four largest euro-area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain). With particularly rich micro datasets for each country containing over 215,000 observations from 1985 to 1999, we ex-plore what can be learned about the interest channel and the broad credit channel. For each of those countries, we estimate neo-classical investment relationships, explaining investment by its user cost, sales and cash flow. We find investment to be sensitive to user cost changes in all those four countries. This implies an operative interest channel in these euro-area countries. We also find in-vestment in all countries to be quite sensitive to cash flow movements. However, only in Italy do smaller firms react more to cash flow movements than large firms, implying that a broad credit channel might not be equally pervasive in all countries.Investment, Monetary transmission channels, User cost of capital.

Vortex Particle-Mesh with Immersed Lifting Lines for Aerospace and Wind Engineering

AbstractWe present the treatment of lifting lines with a Vortex Particle-Mesh (VPM) methodology. The VPM method relies on the Lagrangian discretization of the Navier-Stokes equations in vorticity-velocity formulation. The use of this hybrid discretization offers several advantages. The particles are used solely for the advection, thereby waiving classical time stability constraints. They also exploit the compactness of vorticity support, leading to high computational gains for external flow simulations. The mesh, on the other hand, handles all the other computationally intensive tasks, such as the evaluation of the differential operators and the use of fast Fourier-based Poisson solvers, which allow the combination of unbounded directions and inlet/outlet boundaries. Both discretizations communicate through high order interpolation. The mesh and the interpolation also allow for additional advances; they are used to handle Lagrangian distortion by reinitializing the particle positions onto a regular grid. This crucial step, referred to as remeshing, guarantees the accuracy of the method. In addition, the resulting methodology provides computational efficiency and scalability to massively parallel architectures.Sources of vorticity are accounted for through a lifting line approach. This line handles the attached and shed vorticity contributions in a Lagrangian manner. Its immersed treatment efficiently captures the development of vorticity from thin sheets into a three-dimensional field. We apply this approach to the simulation of wake flows encountered in aeronautical and wind energy applications. An important aspect in these fields is the handling of turbulent inflows. We have developed a technique for the introduction of pre-computed or synthetic turbulent flow fields in vorticity form. Our treatment is based on particles as well and consistent with the Lagrangian character of the method. We apply here our method to the investigation of wind turbine wakes over very large distances, reaching cluster or wind farm sizes