Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?

Virtually all existing continuous-time, single-factor term structure models are based on a short rate process that has a linear drift function. However, there is no strong a priori argument in favor of linearity, and Stanton (1997) and Ait-Sahalia (1996) employ nonparametric estimation techniques to conclude that the drift function of the short rate contains important nonlinearities. Comparatively little is known about the finite-sample properties of these estimators, particularly when they are applied to frequent sampling of a very persistent process, like short term interest rates. In this paper, we apply these estimators to simulated sample paths of a square-root diffusion. Although the drift function is linear, both estimators suggest nonlinearities of the type and magnitude reported in by Stanton (1997) and Ait-Sahalia (1996). These results, along with the results of a simple GMM estimation procedure applied to the Stanton and Ait-Sahalia data sets, imply that nonlinearity of the short rate drift is not a robust stylized fact.term structure, continuous-time

The use of a formal sensitivity analysis on epidemic models with immune protection from maternally acquired antibodies

This paper considers the outcome of a formal sensitivity analysis on a series of epidemic model structures developed to study the population level effects of maternal antibodies. The analysis is used to compare the potential influence of maternally acquired immunity on various age and time domain observations of infection and serology, with and without seasonality. The results of the analysis indicate that time series observations are largely insensitive to variations in the average duration of this protection, and that age related empirical data are likely to be most appropriate for estimating these characteristics

Using Proxies for the Short Rate: When are Three Months Like an Instant?

The dynamics of the unobservable "short" or "instantaneous" rate of interest are frequently estimated using a proxy variable. We show the biases resulting from this practice (the "proxy" problem) are related to the derivatives of the proxy with respect to the short rate and the (inverse) function from the proxy to the short rate. Analytic results show that the proxy problem is not economically significant for single- factor affine models, for parameter values consistent with US data. In addition, for the two-factor affine model of Longstaff and Schwartz (1992), the proxy problem is only economically significant for pricing discount bonds with maturities of more than 5 years. We also describe two different procedures which can be used to assess the magnitude of the proxy problem in more general interest rate models. Numerical evaluation of a nonlinear single-factor model suggests that the proxy problem can significantly affect both estimates of the diffusion function and discount bond prices.interest rates, proxies, term structure

Residual Force Enhancement Is Present in Consecutive Post-Stretch Isometric Contractions of the Hamstrings during a Training Simulation

Residual force enhancement (rFE) is observed when isometric force following an active stretch is elevated compared to an isometric contraction at corresponding muscle lengths. Acute rFE has been confirmed in vivo in upper and lower limb muscles. However, it is uncertain whether rFE persists using multiple, consecutive contractions as per a training simulation. Using the knee flexors, 10 recreationally active participants (seven males, three females; age 31.00 years ± 8.43 years) performed baseline isometric contractions at 150° knee flexion (180° representing terminal knee extension) of 50% maximal voluntary activation of semitendinosus. Participants performed post-stretch isometric (PS-ISO) contractions (three sets of 10 repetitions) starting at 90° knee extension with a joint rotation of 60° at 60°·s−1 at 50% maximal voluntary activation of semitendinosus. Baseline isometric torque and muscle activation were compared to PS-ISO torque and muscle activation across all 30 repetitions. Significant rFE was noted in all repetitions (37.8–77.74%), with no difference in torque between repetitions or sets. There was no difference in activation of semitendinosus or biceps femoris long-head between baseline and PS-ISO contractions in all repetitions (ST; baseline ISO = 0.095–1.000 ± 0.036–0.039 Mv, PS-ISO = 0.094–0.098 ± 0.033–0.038 and BFlh; baseline ISO = 0.068–0.075 ± 0.031–0.038 Mv). This is the first investigation to observe rFE during multiple, consecutive submaximal PS-ISO contractions. PS-ISO contractions have the potential to be used as a training stimulus

Prevalence of musculoskeletal pain and dysfunction in electrical utility workers: practical considerations for prevention and rehabilitation in the workplace.

IntroductionThis study assessed the prevalence and associations of musculoskeletal pain and dysfunction in electrical utility workers, with the aim of applying the findings to better prevent and rehabilitate workplace musculoskeletal disorders.MethodsEmployees completed an online survey recording their musculoskeletal symptoms across nine anatomical locations for the preceding 12 months. A total of 565 employees, working across eight different electrical utility organisational work units, completed the survey.Consumer and Community InvolvementThe study was collaborative and conducted in Australia's largest, wholly government owned electricity company. The study originated from the participating organisation wanting to better understand their musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) risks.ResultsEmployees who experienced high job stress were 4.06 times (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.78–9.29) more likely to report musculoskeletal symptoms in the shoulder compared with employees with lower reported job stress. Employees that perceived their work to have high physical demands report lower back musculoskeletal symptoms at 2.64 times the rate of those perceiving their job to be of low physical demand (95% CI = 1.44–4.84). There were significant differences in the lower back musculoskeletal symptoms according to work unit membership.ConclusionsUnderstanding the prevalence of MSDs is critical to implementing practical prevention and rehabilitation strategies in the workplace. This anonymous survey highlighted that a large proportion of electrical utility workers reported that musculoskeletal symptoms had impacted their ability to perform their job, housework and/or hobbies in the preceding 12 months. Early access to rehabilitation services is essential. However, many workers report barriers to disclosing MSDs; therefore, workplace rehabilitation services may need to be broadened to account for these barriers

Application of next-generation sequencing technologies in virology

The progress of science is punctuated by the advent of revolutionary technologies that provide new ways and scales to formulate scientific questions and advance knowledge. Following on from electron microscopy, cell culture and PCR, next-generation sequencing is one of these methodologies that is now changing the way that we understand viruses, particularly in the areas of genome sequencing, evolution, ecology, discovery and transcriptomics. Possibilities for these methodologies are only limited by our scientific imagination and, to some extent, by their cost, which has restricted their use to relatively small numbers of samples. Challenges remain, including the storage and analysis of the large amounts of data generated. As the chemistries employed mature, costs will decrease. In addition, improved methods for analysis will become available, opening yet further applications in virology including routine diagnostic work on individuals, and new understanding of the interaction between viral and host transcriptomes. An exciting era of viral exploration has begun, and will set us new challenges to understand the role of newly discovered viral diversity in both disease and health

A two-year examination of the relation between internal and external load and heart rate variability in Australian Rules Football

The relationship between heart rate variability (HRV) and training load in team-sport is unknown. We therefore assessed relations between completed training-load in the previous 1-, 3- and 7-days and waking HRV in professional Australian Rules Football. Linear-mixed models analysed changes in HRV, considering training load from the previous 1-, 3- and 7-days. Total Distance (TD), distance >14.4 km ‧ h−1 (HSR) and >24.9 km ‧ h−1 (Sprint-Distance), duration >85% max heart rate and Rating of Perceived Exertion were included as independent variables. Sub-group analysis of season-phase and years of professional experience was also conducted. Increased three-day Sprint-Distance reduced HRV in the first 8-weeks of pre-season (−13.1 ms, p = 0.03) and across the data collection period (−3.75 ms, p = 0.01). In first-year players, higher previous-day (−63.3 ms, p=0.04) and seven-day TD (−38.2 ms, p = 0.02) reduced HRV, whilst higher seven-day HSR increased HRV (34.5 ms, p = 0.01). In players with five-to-seven years of professional experience, higher three-day (−14.4 ms, p = 0.02) and seven-day TD (−15.7 ms, p = 0.01) reduced HRV, while higher three-day HSR increased HRV (12.5 ms, p = 0.04). In players with greater than eight years of professional experience, higher previous-day Sprint-Distance reduced HRV (−13.1 ms, p < 0.008). Completed training load across the previous 7-days influences HRV, but the relation between variables is complex and influenced by professional experience and season-phase

A Vast Thin Plane of Co-rotating Dwarf Galaxies Orbiting the Andromeda Galaxy

Dwarf satellite galaxies are thought to be the remnants of the population of primordial structures that coalesced to form giant galaxies like the Milky Way. An early analysis noted that dwarf galaxies may not be isotropically distributed around our Galaxy, as several are correlated with streams of HI emission, and possibly form co-planar groups. These suspicions are supported by recent analyses, and it has been claimed that the apparently planar distribution of satellites is not predicted within standard cosmology, and cannot simply represent a memory of past coherent accretion. However, other studies dispute this conclusion. Here we report the existence (99.998% significance) of a planar sub-group of satellites in the Andromeda galaxy, comprising approximately 50% of the population. The structure is vast: at least 400 kpc in diameter, but also extremely thin, with a perpendicular scatter <14.1 kpc (99% confidence). Radial velocity measurements reveal that the satellites in this structure have the same sense of rotation about their host. This finding shows conclusively that substantial numbers of dwarf satellite galaxies share the same dynamical orbital properties and direction of angular momentum, a new insight for our understanding of the origin of these most dark matter dominated of galaxies. Intriguingly, the plane we identify is approximately aligned with the pole of the Milky Way's disk and is co-planar with the Milky Way to Andromeda position vector. The existence of such extensive coherent kinematic structures within the halos of massive galaxies is a fact that must be explained within the framework of galaxy formation and cosmology.Comment: Published in the 3rd Jan 2013 issue of Nature. 19 pages, 4 figures, 1 three-dimensional interactive figure. To view and manipulate the 3-D figure, an Adobe Reader browser plug-in is required; alternatively save to disk and view with Adobe Reade

The antiangiogenic activity of naturally occurring and synthetic homoisoflavonoids from the Hyacinthaceae (sensu APGII)

Excessive blood vessel formation in the eye is implicated in wet age-related macular degeneration, proliferative diabetic retinopathy, neovascular glaucoma, and retinopathy of prematurity, which are major causes of blindness. Small molecule antiangiogenic drugs are strongly needed to supplement existing biologics. Homoisoflavonoids have been previously shown to have potent antiproliferative activities in endothelial cells over other cell types. Moreover, they demonstrated a strong antiangiogenic potential in vitro and in vivo in animal models of ocular neovascularization. Here, we tested the antiangiogenic activity of a group of naturally occurring homoisoflavonoids isolated from the family Hyacinthaceae and related synthetic compounds, chosen for synthesis based on structure–activity relationship observations. Several compounds showed interesting antiproliferative and antiangiogenic activities in vitro on retinal microvascular endothelial cells, a disease-relevant cell type, with the synthetic chromane, 46, showing the best activity (GI50 of 2.3 × 10–4 μM)