Clinical Outcomes and Predictors of Improved Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction in Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction due to Non-Ischemic Cardiomyopathy

Background: Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) improvement is the cornerstone of LV reverse remodelling. It prognosticates heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). There is limited data on the clinical factors that predict LVEF improvement among non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM) patients in Malaysia. Objective: To determine the 3-year outcomes and predictors of LVEF improvement in patients with (NICM) and HFrEF. Materials & Methods: We recruited patients with NICM and HFrEF (LVEF <40%) between 2016 and 2018. NICM was defined as HF with 1) normal coronary arteries or 2) any coronary artery stenosis not involving the proximal left anterior descending artery (LAD) and without transmural fibrosis in the LAD territory from cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging to account for the impaired LVEF. Clinical and imaging parameters were assessed using logistic regression statistics to determine the predictors of LVEF improvement. LVEF improvement is defined as a recovery of EF to > 40% with at least a 10-point increment from baseline. The clinical outcomes at three year were 1) change in NYHA class and 2) composite of all-cause mortality, unscheduled clinic or emergency department visits, readmission and/or ventricular arrhythmia. Results: 43 patients were recruited. The mean duration of follow-up and echocardiographic assessment interval were 46 and 23 months, respectively. The cohort had a mean age of 46±13 years, and were mostly male (72%). More patients had NYHA 1 at the end of the study (37% vs 86%). 11 patients (25%) recorded composite outcomes. 62.8% had LVEF improvement. Patients with LVEF improvement had a lower incidence of late gadolinium enhancement (51.7% vs 85.7%, odds 5.6 ,p=0.045) and midwall fibrosis on CMR (18.5% vs 62.5%, odds 7.3, p=0.003). LVEF improvement did not affect the functional NYHA recovery (92% vs 81%, p=0.28). Patients with less LVEF improvement had higher incidence of composite outcome (18.5% vs 37.5%, p=0.168). Other characteristics were not significantly different between the groups. Conclusion: Patients with NICM and LVEF improvement had lower composite outcome. Absence of late gadolinium enhancement, particularly midwall fibrosis was an independant predictor of LVEF improvement. This underscores the importance of CMR tissue characterisation to refine the prognostication of NICM patients

Prognostic Value of N-terminal B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Multicenter Study

Background: Several models have been developed to help the clinician in risk stratification for Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS),such as the TIMI and GRACE risk scores. However, there is conflicting evidence for the prognostic value of NT-ProBNP in acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Objective: (1) To explore the association of NT-proBNP with 30-day clinical outcome in AMI patients. (2) To compare the prognostic value of NT-proBNP with TIMI and GRACE risk scores in AMI patients. Methods: We conducted a multicenter, prospective observational study recruiting patients presented with AMI between 29-October-2015 and 14-January-2017, involving 1 cardiology referral centre and 4 non-cardiology hospitals. NT-proBNP level (Alere Triage®, US)was measured within 24 hours fromthe diagnosis of AMI. Patientswere followed-up for 1 month. Results: A total of 186 patients were recruited, 143 from tertiary cardiology centre and 43 from non-cardiology hospitals. Mean age was 54.7±10.0 years, 87.6% male and 64% were STEMI. The NT-proBNP level ranged from 60 to 16700pg/ml, with a median of 714pg/ml. Using the 75th centile as the cutoff, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis for the 30-day cardiac related mortality was significantly higher for patient with NT-proBNP level of ≥1600pg/ml (6.4% vs. 0.7%, p=0.02). Cox-regression analysis showed that NT-proBNP level of ≥1600pg/ml was an independent predictor of 30-day cardiac related mortality, regardless of TIMI risk score, GRACE score, LV ejection fraction and study hospitals (HR 9.274, p=0.054, 95%CI 0.965, 89.161). Readmission for heart failure at 30-day was also higher for patient with NT-proBNP level of ≥1600pg/ml (HR 9.308, p=0.053, 95%CI 0.969, 89.492). NT-proBNP level was not associated with all-cause mortality, risk of readmission for ACS, arrhythmia and stroke (pN0.05). By adding 50 score to GRACE risk score for NT-proBNP level of ≥1600pg/ml, combination of GraceNT-proBNP scores of more than 200 appeared to be a better independent predictor for 30-day cardiac related mortality (HR:28.28, p=0.004, 95%CI 2.94, 272.1). ROC analysis showed that this new score had 75% sensitivity and 91.2% specificity in predicting 30-day cardiac related mortality (AUC 0.791, p=0.046). Conclusions: NT-proBNP is a useful point-of-care risk stratification biomarker in AMI. It can be combined to the current risk score model for better risk stratification in AMI patients

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Clinical characteristics of patients with hereditary transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) in Sarawak

Abstract We describe the clinical characteristic of patients diagnosed with hereditay transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTRv-CM) in the multi-ethic Malaysian population in Sarawak. From April 2019 to September 2021, we diagnosed 6 patients with ATTRv-CM of which 5 (83%) were male, median age of disease onset was 53.5 years, median duration from symptoms onset to diagnosis was 34 months. 2 patients (33%) were in New York Heart Association functional class I, 1 in NYHA class II (17%), 3 (50%) in class III or IV at time of diagnosis. The median NT-proBNP level was 806pg/ml (range 227-10900pg/ml) and the median Hs-Troponin was 45pg/ml (range 37-211pg/ml). The genetic mutations identified were p. Glu74Lys in 2 Malay siblings (33%), p. Ala117Ser in 2 unrelated Chinese patients (33%) and p. Val142lle in 2 Bidayuh siblings (33%). Patients with p. Glu74Lys mutation were young, and had predominant neurological manifestation and subtle cardiac features. p. Ala117Ser mutation was characterised by initial protracted neurological presentation followed by heart failure, while p. Val142lle mutation was characterised by predominant cardiac manifestation. The common electrocardiography findings were mismatch between QRS voltage and left ventricular (LV) wall thickness (67%), premature atrial contraction (50%) and first-degree atrioventricular block (50%). Echocardiography findings included symmetrical LV hypertrophy (100%) with median inter-ventricular septum’s thickness 15.5 mm (range 12-20mm), apical sparing global longitudinal strain pattern (100%), absence of interatrial drop-off (100%) and granular sparkling of myocardium (83%). The median left ventricular ejection fraction was 51% (range 26-72%) and median global longitudinal strain was -11.6% (range -9.4 to -14.6%). 4 patients underwent cardiac MRI. The median native T1 and extracellular volume fraction were increased at 1151 msec (range 1023-1371msec) and 57% (range 52-69%) respectively. Abnormal myocardial nulling was observed in 3 patients, another had diffuse subendocardial late gadolinium enhancement pattern involving the left ventricle and left atrium. Overall survival after 1 month and 6 months of diagnosis was 67% and 50% respectively. 4 patients were started on oral Tafamidis. In conclusion, the clinical characteristics of patients with hereditary ATTR-CM in Sarawak are heterogenous. Diagnosis is often delayed resulting in poor outcome

Dynamics of liquid water in the anode flow channels of PEM fuel cells: A numerical parametric study

A 3D volume of fluid (VOF) model for an anode channel in a PEM fuel cell has been built. The effects of the initial position of the water droplet, its size as well as the wettability of the gas diffusion layer (GDL) are investigated under different operating conditions. It is found that the initial position of the relatively small water droplet in the channel has almost no effect on the pressure drop and the time taken for the liquid water to move out from the channel; however, such effects become more profound as the size of the water droplet increases. Also, when the droplet is placed at the side wall of the channel, then it develops into pockets of water that are mainly located at the upper corners of the channel, thus causing a smaller pressure drop compared to the cases in which the water droplet is placed either on the surface of the GDL or on the top wall of the channel. Furthermore, the hydrogen velocity is found to have a negligible effect on the dynamics of liquid water; however, the pressure drop and removal time are significantly influenced by the hydrogen velocity. Moreover, as the size of the water droplet increases, the pressure drop increases and the time required for the liquid water to move out of the channel decreases. Finally, the pressure drop in the channel decreases and the removal time of the liquid water increases as the contact angle of the GDL decreases

The Association Between N-Terminal B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and One Year Clinical Outcome in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction : A Multicenter Study

Background: NT-proBNP is a useful biomarker in the management of heart failure. However, there is conflicting evidence for the prognostic value of NT-ProBNP in acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Objectives: (1) To explore the association between NT-proBNP and 1-year cardiac related mortality in AMI patients. (2) To explore the association between NT-proBNP and 1-year risk of sudden cardiac death or ventricular arrhythmia, readmission for heart failure, readmission for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and stroke. Methods: We conducted a multicenter, prospective observational study recruiting patients presenting with AMI between 1-August2016 to 31-January-2017, involving 1 cardiology referral center and 4 non-cardiology hospitals. NT-proBNP levels (Alere Triage®, US) were measured within 24 hours of AMI diagnosis. Patients were followed-up for 1 year