572 research outputs found
Trends Prediction Using Social Diffusion Models
The importance of the ability of predict trends in social media has been
growing rapidly in the past few years with the growing dominance of social
media in our everyday's life. Whereas many works focus on the detection of
anomalies in networks, there exist little theoretical work on the prediction of
the likelihood of anomalous network pattern to globally spread and become
"trends". In this work we present an analytic model the social diffusion
dynamics of spreading network patterns. Our proposed method is based on
information diffusion models, and is capable of predicting future trends based
on the analysis of past social interactions between the community's members. We
present an analytic lower bound for the probability that emerging trends would
successful spread through the network. We demonstrate our model using two
comprehensive social datasets - the "Friends and Family" experiment that was
held in MIT for over a year, where the complete activity of 140 users was
analyzed, and a financial dataset containing the complete activities of over
1.5 million members of the "eToro" social trading community.Comment: 6 Pages + Appendi
Recommended from our members
Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention
Theoretical models of critical mass have shown how minority groups can initiate social change dynamics in the emergence of new social conventions. Here we study an artificial system of social conventions in which human subjects interact to establish a new coordination equilibrium. The findings provide direct empirical demonstration of the existence of a tipping point in the dynamics of changing social conventions. When minority groups reached the critical mass –that is, the critical group size for initiating social change –they were consistently able to overturn the established behavior. The size of the required critical mass is expected to vary based on theoretically identifiable features of a social setting. Our results show that the theoretically predicted dynamics of critical mass do in fact emerge as expected within an empirical system of social coordination
Trends Prediction Using Social Diffusion Models
The importance of the ability to predict trends in social media has been growing rapidly in the past few years with the growing dominance of social media in our everyday’s life. Whereas many works focus on the detection of anomalies in networks, there exist little theoretical work on the prediction of the likelihood of anomalous network pattern to globally spread and become “trends”. In this work we present an analytic model for the social diffusion dynamics of spreading network patterns. Our proposed method is based on information diffusion models, and is capable of predicting future trends based on the analysis of past social interactions between the community’s members. We present an analytic lower bound for the probability that emerging trends would successfully spread through the network. We demonstrate our model using two comprehensive social datasets — the Friends and Family experiment that was held in MIT for over a year, where the complete activity of 140 users was analyzed, and a financial dataset containing the complete activities of over 1.5 million members of the eToro social trading community
Generic Absorbing Transition in Coevolution Dynamics
We study a coevolution voter model on a network that evolves according to the
state of the nodes. In a single update, a link between opposite-state nodes is
rewired with probability , while with probability one of the nodes
takes its neighbor's state. A mean-field approximation reveals an absorbing
transition from an active to a frozen phase at a critical value
that only depends on the average degree of the
network. The approach to the final state is characterized by a time scale that
diverges at the critical point as . We find that the
active and frozen phases correspond to a connected and a fragmented network
respectively. We show that the transition in finite-size systems can be seen as
the sudden change in the trajectory of an equivalent random walk at the
critical rewiring rate , highlighting the fact that the mechanism behind
the transition is a competition between the rates at which the network and the
state of the nodes evolve.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure
Reinforcement-Driven Spread of Innovations and Fads
We propose kinetic models for the spread of permanent innovations and
transient fads by the mechanism of social reinforcement. Each individual can be
in one of M+1 states of awareness 0,1,2,...,M, with state M corresponding to
adopting an innovation. An individual with awareness k<M increases to k+1 by
interacting with an adopter. Starting with a single adopter, the time for an
initially unaware population of size N to adopt a permanent innovation grows as
ln(N) for M=1, and as N^{1-1/M} for M>1. The fraction of the population that
remains clueless about a transient fad after it has come and gone changes
discontinuously as a function of the fad abandonment rate lambda for M>1. The
fad dies out completely in a time that varies non-monotonically with lambda.Comment: 4 pages, 2 columns, 5 figures, revtex 4-1 format; revised version has
been expanded and put into iop format, with one figure adde
Influence Diffusion in Social Networks under Time Window Constraints
We study a combinatorial model of the spread of influence in networks that
generalizes existing schemata recently proposed in the literature. In our
model, agents change behaviors/opinions on the basis of information collected
from their neighbors in a time interval of bounded size whereas agents are
assumed to have unbounded memory in previously studied scenarios. In our
mathematical framework, one is given a network , an integer value
for each node , and a time window size . The goal is to
determine a small set of nodes (target set) that influences the whole graph.
The spread of influence proceeds in rounds as follows: initially all nodes in
the target set are influenced; subsequently, in each round, any uninfluenced
node becomes influenced if the number of its neighbors that have been
influenced in the previous rounds is greater than or equal to .
We prove that the problem of finding a minimum cardinality target set that
influences the whole network is hard to approximate within a
polylogarithmic factor. On the positive side, we design exact polynomial time
algorithms for paths, rings, trees, and complete graphs.Comment: An extended abstract of a preliminary version of this paper appeared
in: Proceedings of 20th International Colloquium on Structural Information
and Communication Complexity (Sirocco 2013), Lectures Notes in Computer
Science vol. 8179, T. Moscibroda and A.A. Rescigno (Eds.), pp. 141-152, 201
The Routing of Complex Contagion in Kleinberg's Small-World Networks
In Kleinberg's small-world network model, strong ties are modeled as
deterministic edges in the underlying base grid and weak ties are modeled as
random edges connecting remote nodes. The probability of connecting a node
with node through a weak tie is proportional to , where
is the grid distance between and and is the
parameter of the model. Complex contagion refers to the propagation mechanism
in a network where each node is activated only after neighbors of the
node are activated.
In this paper, we propose the concept of routing of complex contagion (or
complex routing), where we can activate one node at one time step with the goal
of activating the targeted node in the end. We consider decentralized routing
scheme where only the weak ties from the activated nodes are revealed. We study
the routing time of complex contagion and compare the result with simple
routing and complex diffusion (the diffusion of complex contagion, where all
nodes that could be activated are activated immediately in the same step with
the goal of activating all nodes in the end).
We show that for decentralized complex routing, the routing time is lower
bounded by a polynomial in (the number of nodes in the network) for all
range of both in expectation and with high probability (in particular,
for and
for in expectation),
while the routing time of simple contagion has polylogarithmic upper bound when
. Our results indicate that complex routing is harder than complex
diffusion and the routing time of complex contagion differs exponentially
compared to simple contagion at sweetspot.Comment: Conference version will appear in COCOON 201
Dynamics in online social networks
An increasing number of today's social interactions occurs using online
social media as communication channels. Some online social networks have become
extremely popular in the last decade. They differ among themselves in the
character of the service they provide to online users. For instance, Facebook
can be seen mainly as a platform for keeping in touch with close friends and
relatives, Twitter is used to propagate and receive news, LinkedIn facilitates
the maintenance of professional contacts, Flickr gathers amateurs and
professionals of photography, etc. Albeit different, all these online platforms
share an ingredient that pervades all their applications. There exists an
underlying social network that allows their users to keep in touch with each
other and helps to engage them in common activities or interactions leading to
a better fulfillment of the service's purposes. This is the reason why these
platforms share a good number of functionalities, e.g., personal communication
channels, broadcasted status updates, easy one-step information sharing, news
feeds exposing broadcasted content, etc. As a result, online social networks
are an interesting field to study an online social behavior that seems to be
generic among the different online services. Since at the bottom of these
services lays a network of declared relations and the basic interactions in
these platforms tend to be pairwise, a natural methodology for studying these
systems is provided by network science. In this chapter we describe some of the
results of research studies on the structure, dynamics and social activity in
online social networks. We present them in the interdisciplinary context of
network science, sociological studies and computer science.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, book chapte
The Dynamics of Protest Recruitment through an Online Network
The recent wave of mobilizations in the Arab world and across Western countries has generated much discussion on how digital media is connected to the diffusion of protests. We examine that connection using data from the surge of mobilizations that took place in Spain in May 2011. We study recruitment patterns in the Twitter network and find evidence of social influence and complex contagion. We identify the network position of early participants (i.e. the leaders of the recruitment process) and of the users who acted as seeds of message cascades (i.e. the spreaders of information). We find that early participants cannot be characterized by a typical topological position but spreaders tend to be more central in the network. These findings shed light on the connection between online networks, social contagion, and collective dynamics, and offer an empirical test to the recruitment mechanisms theorized in formal models of collective action
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