Balancing reserves within a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050: From market developments to model insights

This paper expands the discussion about future balancing reserve provision to the long-term perspective of 2050. Most pathways for a transformation towards a decarbonized electricity sector rely on very high shares of fluctuating renewables. This can be a challenge for the provision of balancing reserves, although their influence on the balancing cost is unclear. Apart from the transformation of the generation portfolio, various technical and regulatory developments within the balancing framework might further influence balancing costs: i) dynamic dimensioning of balancing reserves, ii) provision by fluctuating renewables or new (battery) storage technologies, and iii) exchange of balancing reserves between balancing zones. The first part of this paper discusses and transforms these developments into quantitative scenario definitions. The second part applies these scenarios to dynELMOD (dynamic Electricity Model), an investment model of the European electricity system that is extended to include balancing reserve provision. In contrast to other models applied in most papers on balancing reserves, this model is capable of evaluating the interdependencies between developments in balancing reserve provision and high shares of fluctuating renewables jointly. The results show that balancing reserve cost can be kept at current levels for a renewable electricity system until 2050, when using a dynamic reserve sizing horizon. Apart from the sizing horizon, storage capacity withholding duration and additional balancing demand from RES are the main driver of balancing costs. Renewables participation in balancing provision is mainly important for negative reserves, while storages play an important role for the provision of positive reserves. However, only on very few occasions, additional storage investments are required for balancing reserve provision, as most of the time sufficient storage capacities are available in the electricity system

dynELMOD: A dynamic investment and dispatch model for the future European electricity market

This Data Documentation presents a dynamic investment and dispatch model for Europe named dynELMOD. The model endogenously determines investments into conventional and renewable power plants, different storage technologies including demand side management measures, and the electricity grid in five-year steps in Europe until 2050 under full or myopic foresight. The underlying electricity grid and cross-border interaction between countries is approximated using a flow-based market coupling approach using a PTDF matrix. Carbon emission restictions can be modeled using an emission path, an emission budget, or an emission price. For the investment decisions a time frame reduction technique is applied, which is also presented in this document. The code and the dataset are made publicly available under an open source license on the website of DIW Berlin. The model results show that under almost complete decarbonization renewable energy sources in conjunction with storage capacities will provide the majority of the electricity generation in Europe. At the same time with a rising renewables share, especially after 2040, the need for storage capacities increases. No additional capacity from nuclear energy or fossil fuels is installed, due to high costs and in order to meet the greenhouse gas emission target

New cross-border electricity balancing arrangements in Europe

The European electricity system is undergoing significant changes, not only with respect to developments in generation and networks but also the arrangements for the operation of the system. These are specified in the Network Codes endorsed by regulators, network operators and the European Commission with the objective to create an \Internal Energy Market". In 2013, European network operators formulated the Network Code on Electricity Balancing (NC EB) which foresees arrangements to foster cross-border exchange of balancing services with the objective to lower overall costs and to increase social welfare. Assuming that Switzerland adopts the \Electricity Agreement" which would make EU Electricity rulings binding also in Switzerland, we perform an quantitative analysis of the region consisting of Switzerland, Austria, and Germany. To conduct our analysis, we use an electricity market model with a detailed representation of power plants, scheduled power withdrawals and localized imbalances leading to the need to reserve balancing capacity and activate balancing energy. We consider different levels of integration, as outlined in the NC EB. Our results show that coordinated procurement and activation of balancing services lead to cost decreases, but at the same time distributional effects, which might need to be compensated are incurred

European energy and climate policy requires ambitious targets for 2030

In January 2014, the European Commission proposed a framework for its climate and energy policy up to 2030. It includes targets for reducing greenhouse gases and using renewable energies, but no specific targets for increasing energy efficiency. By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced by 40 percent over 1990 figures. Another element of the proposal is the introduction of a market stability reserve for the European Emissions Trading Scheme. However, its impact would be too late and too weak. In regard to renewable energy use, the Commission has proposed a goal to achieve a share of 27 percent of gross final energy consumption throughout Europe. This appears unambitious against the background of developments to date. In addition, there is no mandatory division of these goals among the individual member states. The Commission's calculations are based on implausible technical and economic assumptions in the power sector. The estimated costs for nuclear power are too low, and it is assumed there will be a breakthrough in carbon capture technologies that seems unlikely from today's perspective. In contrast, cost assumptions in the field of renewable energies remain too high and outdated. In light of previous experience, specific goals for 2030 are required on three levels: greenhouse gas emissions reductions, renewable energies, and energy efficiency. According to the Commission's impact assessment, energy system costs would hardly increase even with more ambitious objectives. In addition, creating an appropriate framework would also enable positive developments in investment, exports, and employment. The German federal government should continue its commitment to an ambitious European policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to increase the use of renewable energies, and to boost energy efficiency

European energy sector: Large investments required for sustainability and supply security

For the European Union to keep on track with its energy and climate targets, large investments are required in electricity generation, infrastructure and energy efficiency. The electricity sector takes the center stage. This article delivers an overview of several estimates of the investment requirement in the European energy sector and estimates the total required investment expenditures until 2030. To ensure the financing of these investment expenditures, further adaptation of the legal framework in the European member states is necessary; even most importantly, the regulatory framework of cross-border infrastructure projects needs to be improved

European climate targets achievable without nuclear power

The upcoming Climate Change Conference in Paris will once again highlight the need for action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to mitigate climate change. The relevant global energy scenarios are often still based on the assumption that the expansion of nuclear power can contribute to climate change mitigation. The spiraling investment and operating costs of nuclear plants, the unresolved issues concerning the dismantling of these plants and permanent storage of nuclear waste, and the continuing lack of insurability against nuclear accidents make nuclear power extremely unattractive from an economic perspective. As a result, many nuclear power companies are facing financial difficulties. The nuclear renaissance was simply a fairy tale: the majority of the around 400 nuclear power stations currently in operation around the world are outdated and will still need to be dismantled after they have been decommissioned. The construction of new nuclear power plants is restricted to a small number of countries, predominantly China. DIW Berlin has modeled a number of scenarios to forecast European power supply up to 2050 and these show that, with a marked expansion of renewable energy sources, Europe can meet its climate targets without nuclear power. The proliferation of more cost-effective renewable energy technologies, particularly wind and solar power, can compensate for the anticipated decline in nuclear power. In a scenario that includes no new nuclear power plant construction at all, renewables account for 88 percent of powergeneration capacity. Nuclear power was not, is not, and never will be a sustainable energy source and is, therefore, unsuitable for an efficient climate policy. A transition to greater use of renewables is the more cost-effective option overall

Europäische Klimaschutzziele sind auch ohne Atomkraft erreichbar

Die kommende Klimakonferenz in Paris wird einmal mehr den Handlungsbedarf zur globalen Minderung von Treibhausgasemissionen verdeutlichen, um die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels einzudämmen. Relevante globale Energieszenarien gehen oftmals noch davon aus, dass der Ausbau der Atomkraft einen Beitrag zum Klimaschutz leisten wird. Die deutlich gestiegenen Investitionskosten für neue Atomkraftwerke, zunehmende Betriebskosten, ungelöste Fragen des Rückbaus und der Endlagerung und die nach wie vor fehlende Versicherbarkeit von Atomunfällen machen die Atomenergie wirtschaftlich jedoch äußerst unattraktiv. Dementsprechend befinden sich viele Atomkonzerne in finanziellen Schwierigkeiten. Eine angebliche Renaissance der Atomenergie gibt es nicht: Die meisten der weltweit rund 400 Atomkraftwerke, die derzeit betrieben werden, sind alt und müssen nach ihrer Stilllegung zurückgebaut werden. Der Kraftwerksneubau beschränkt sich auf wenige Länder, vor allem China. Szenarioanalysen des DIW Berlin für die europäische Stromversorgung bis 2050 zeigen, dass Europa seine Klimaschutzziele bei einem deutlichen Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien auch ohne Atomkraft erreichen kann. Dank zunehmend kostengünstiger Technologien, insbesondere Windkraft und Photovoltaik, kann der zu erwartende Rückgang der Atomkraft kompensiert werden. In einem Szenario gänzlich ohne Neubauten von Atomkraftwerken stellen die erneuerbaren Energien im Jahr 2050 88 Prozent der Stromerzeugungskapazitäten dar. Atomkraft war, ist und wird keine nachhaltige Energiequelle und ist daher für eine effiziente Klimapolitik ungeeignet. Der Umbau hin zu einem verstärkten Einsatz erneuerbarer Energien ist gesamtwirtschaftlich die kostengünstigere Variante.The upcoming Climate Change Conference in Paris will once again highlight the need for action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to mitigate climate change. The relevant global energy scenarios are often still based on the assumption that the expansion of nuclear power can contribute to climate protection. The increasing investment and operating costs of nuclear plants, the unresolved issues concerning the dismantling of plants and permanent storage of nuclear waste, and the continuing lack of insurability against nuclear accidents make nuclear power extremely unattractive from an economic perspective. As a result, many nuclear power companies are facing financial difficulties. The nuclear renaissance is a myth: the majority of the around 400 nuclear power stations currently in operation around the world are outdated and will still need to be dismantled after they have been decommissioned. The construction of new nuclear power plants is restricted to a small number of countries, predominantly China. DIW Berlin has modeled a number of scenarios to forecast European power supply up to 2050 and they show that, with a marked expansion of renewable energy sources, Europe can meet its climate targets without nuclear power. The proliferation of more cost-effective renewable energy technologies, particularly wind and solar power, can compensate for the anticipated decline in nuclear power. In a scenario that includes no new nuclear power plant construction at all, renewables account for 88 percent of powergeneration capacity. Nuclear power was, is, and will never be a sustainable energy source and is, therefore, unsuitable for an efficient climate policy. A transition to greater use of renewables is the more cost-effective option overall

European electricity grid infrastructure expansion in a 2050 context

The European climate targets until 2050 require an adaptation of the generation portfolio in terms of renewable and fossil based generation. Assumptions on the timeline of the targets and the availability and costs of generation technologies are used in energy system models to optimize the cost minimal system transformation. The results include investments in generation technologies and their national allocation. Yet, the models are limited to the national aggregation and lack the spatial resolution required to represent individual network investments and related costs. In this paper, we analyze the impact the results of an energy system model have on demand for network expansion in the European power grid in a line-sharp representation. A cost minimizing mixed-integer problem (MIP) model calculates where in the European electricity grid expansion needs to take place for different time steps (2020/30/40/50) in order to obtain minimal total costs for power plant dispatch and grid expansion. Scenarios based on the generation infrastructure options from the PRIMES EU-wide energy model scenarios invoke different expansion needs and are compared. The model allows investments in the AC network and an overlay DC grid. Resulting investment costs are compared to the numbers of the European Energy Roadmap 2050

Szenarien einer nachhaltigen Kraftwerksentwicklung in Deutschland

Die deutsche Bundesregierung hat sich das Ziel gesetzt, die Treibhausgasemissionen bis zum Jahr 2020 um 40 Prozent gegenüber 1990 zu senken. Aktuelle Projektionen gehen davon aus, dass dieses Ziel ohne weitere Klimaschutz-Maßnahmen nicht erreicht wird. Im Jahr 2020 muss voraussichtlich eine zusätzliche Menge von etwa 70 Millionen Tonnen CO2 reduziert werden. Dazu muss der Stromsektor - neben anderen Sektoren wie der Industrie, dem Verkehr, dem Handel oder den privaten Haushalten - einen relevanten Beitrag leisten. Derzeit entstehen etwa 85 Prozent der strombedingten Emissionen in Braun- und Steinkohlekraftwerken. Bestehende Kohlekraftwerke weisen eine hohe CO2-Intensität sowie eine geringe Flexibilität der Stromerzeugung auf. Über die Hälfte der deutschen Steinkohlekapazitäten sind älter als 30 Jahre, auch viele Braunkohleblöcke sind sehr alt. Langfristig haben diese Kraftwerke keinen Platz mehr in einem kohlenstoffarmen, auf erneuerbaren Energien basierten Stromsystem. Das Ziel, die jährlichen Treibhausgasemissionen in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2020 um 40 Prozent zu reduzieren, droht verfehlt zu werden. Im Rahmen des derzeit von der Bundesregierung vorbereiteten Aktionsprogramms Klimaschutz 2020 wird daher eine frühzeitige Stilllegung von Kohlekraftwerken diskutiert. Die Gelegenheit hierfür erscheint aufgrund der derzeit bestehen Überkapazitäten bei der Stromerzeugung in Deutschland und den damit einhergehenden niedrigen Großhandelspreisen sowie hohen Stromexporten günstig. In der Studie wurden anhand eines detaillierten Modells des deutschen Strommarktes die Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Szenarien der Schließung von Kohlekraftwerken ermittelt. Den Szenariorechnungen zufolge könnten im kommenden Jahr rund 23 Millionen Tonnen Kohlenstoffdioxid weniger ausgestoßen werden, wenn Steinkohlekraftwerke mit einer Kapazität von drei Gigawatt und Braunkohlekraftwerke mit einer Kapazität von sechs Gigawatt vom Netz genommen würden; dies entspricht immerhin einem Drittel der Stromlücke. Ein stärkerer Rückgang der Braunkohleverstromung (-40 TWh) stünde eine Zunahme der Erdgasverstromung (+ 26 TWh) gegenüber; auch die Steinkohleverstromung würde leicht zunehmen (+13 TWh); mit steigendem Börsenstrompreis sinkt die EEG-Umlage, sodass die Endkundenpreise nicht notwendigerweise steigen müssen. Die Studie zeigt, dass die Stilllegung alter und ineffizienter Kohlekraftwerke das Erreichen der Klimaschutzziele in Deutschland erleichtert. Gleichzeitig kann die verbesserte Marktsituation kostspielige und möglicherweise sehr CO2-intensive Kapazitätsmechanismen ersparen

Verminderte Kohleverstromung könnte zeitnah einen relevanten Beitrag zum deutschen Klimaschutzziel leisten

Die deutsche Bundesregierung hat sich das Ziel gesetzt, die Treibhausgasemissionen bis zum Jahr 2020 um 40 Prozent gegenüber 1990 zu senken. Aktuelle Projektionen gehen davon aus, dass dieses Ziel nur bei Ergreifung weiterer Maßnahmen erreicht wird. Eine wichtige Rolle kommt dabei dem Stromsektor zu, dessen Emissionen zu etwa 85 Prozent in Braun- und Steinkohlekraftwerken entstehen. Große Teile der deutschen Kohlekraftwerke sind schon sehr alt und besonders CO2-intensiv. Im Rahmen des derzeit von der Bundesregierung vorbereiteten Aktionsprogramms Klimaschutz 2020 wird daher als kurzfristig wirksame Maßnahme eine frühzeitige Stilllegung von Kohlekraftwerken diskutiert. Die Gelegenheit hierfür erscheint aufgrund der derzeit bestehenden Überkapazitäten und den damit einhergehenden niedrigen Großhandelspreisen sowie hohen Stromexporten günstig. Szenariorechnungen für das deutsche Stromsystem des Jahres 2015 zeigen, dass die Abschaltung der ältesten und CO2-intensiven Kohlekraftwerke einen substantiellen Beitrag zur Erreichung der Klimaschutzziele der Bundesregierung leisten kann. Bei einer zusätzlichen Stilllegung von rund drei Gigawatt Steinkohle- und sechs Gigawatt Braunkohlekapazitäten ergibt sich eine CO2-Reduktion von 23 Millionen Tonnen. Hinzu kommen Einsparungen, die sich durch den bereits heute angekündigten Rückbau von rund drei GW Steinkohlekraftwerken ergeben. Gleichzeitig steigen die Großhandelsstrompreise, wodurch sich die Wirtschaftlichkeit der Stromerzeugung insbesondere von flexiblen Gaskraftwerken verbessert. Aufgrund des gestiegenen Großhandelspreises sinkt auch die EEG-Umlage.According to the climate target set by the German government for 2020, greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced by 40 percent compared to 1990 levels. However, current projections indicate that this target will only be achieved if further measures are implemented. The power sector has an important role to play here, around 85 percent of its emissions are produced by lignite and hard-coal power plants. A large number of German power stations are already very old and particularly CO2-intensive. Therefore, in the context of the Climate Action Programme 2020 developed by the German government, early closure of lignite and hard coal-fired power plants is being discussed as an effective short-term measure. This appears to be a particularly favorable option due to the current overcapacities, resultant low wholesale prices, and high electricity exports. Scenario calculations for the German power system for 2015 indicate that closing the oldest and most CO2-intensive coal-fired plants could make a substantial contribution to achieving the German government's climate targets. If additional hard-coal power stations with a total capacity of three gigawatts and lignite power stations with a capacity of six gigawatts were to be closed, this would result in a 23-million-ton reduction in CO2 emissions. The shutdown of hard-coal-fired power plants with an overall capacity of around three gigawatts already announced would generate further reductions. At the same time, wholesale prices are on the increase, which makes power generation by flexible gasdriven plants in particular more cost effective. The wholesale price increase would also lead to a reduction in the EEG surcharge