An Examination of the Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy.

India has a long history of running fiscal deficits. This paper asks whether the magnitude of these deficits has involved a violation of India's intertemporal budget constraint. Times series evidence on Central government tax revenues and expenditures are examined for cointegration using procedures that are robust in the presence of structural change. We find no evidence of cointegration, a result that implies a violation of intertemporal solvency and that current fiscal policies are unlikely to be sustainable in the long-run.FISCAL POLICY ; DEBT ; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

This paper analyses spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.international business cycle

Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through third-markets. The results of our Global VAR model of the world economy indicate that the economic consequences of El Niño shocks differ across countries. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries, the El Niño shock has a growth-enhancing effect; some (for instance the U.S.) due to direct effects while others (for instance the European region) through positive spillovers from major trading partners. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run in inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño episodes

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

This paper analyses spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.international business cycle

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2.2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.oil-demand and oil-supply shocks

Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through third-markets. We contribute to the climate–macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions cross-sectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks (direct and total) on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes

Why is exercise prescribed for people with chronic low back pain? A review of the mechanisms of benefit proposed by clinical trialists

Background: Exercise is recommended for the management of chronic low back pain (CLBP). Trialists have proposed numerous mechanisms to explain why exercise improves pain and function in people with CLBP, but these are yet to be synthesised. Objective: To synthesise the proposed mechanisms of benefit for exercise in people with CLBP. Design: Review. Methods: The Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) was searched from inception to July 2019. Randomised controlled trials of adults with CLBP, indexed in PEDro as ‘fitness training’, were included. Two reviewers independently screened and extracted data from each study. Data were analysed quantitatively and qualitatively using thematic analysis. Results: 186 studies were identified and 110 were included in the analysis. Thirty-six studies (33%) did not provide a mechanism of benefit for exercise in people with CLBP. Of the remaining studies, most provided more than one mechanism, from which 33 unique mechanisms were identified. These were grouped into five themes which, from most to least common, were: neuromuscular (n = 105 (44%)); psychosocial (n = 87 (36%)); neurophysiological (n = 22 (9%)); cardiometabolic (n = 15 (6%)); and tissue healing (n = 12 (5%)). The effects of these proposed mechanisms on outcomes for people with CLBP were seldom examined. Conclusions: This review identified a variety of mechanisms proposed in clinical trials to explain why ‘fitness training’ works for people with CLBP, but these mechanisms were seldom tested. Randomised controlled trials investigating the mediating effects of these mechanisms may be warranted to better understand why exercise works for CLBP

PRIVATE SAVINGS IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: ARE THERE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS?

The paper examines the impact of terms of trade shocks on private savings in the transition economies after accounting for the effect of other determinants. Economic agents in the transition economies are subject to tight credit constraints which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic panel model and data from twenty one transition economies confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the transition economies. Favorable movements in both the permanent and transitory components of the terms of trade have a significant positive impact on private savings with transitory movements having a larger impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access to foreign borrowing that many of the transition economies have faced during the last decade. Although the impact of terms of trade shocks are found to be asymmetric, the magnitude of the impact appears to be small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39958/3/wp572.pd

Visual analysis of global comparative mapping of the practice domains of the nurse practitioner/advanced practice nursing role in respondent countries.

Internationally, there is increasing demand for nurse practitioner (NP) and advanced practice nursing (APN) roles; however, high variability exists in how NP/APN roles are defined and understood. The aim of this research was to improve our understanding of how the NP/APN is defined globally by: 1) examining role definitions, competencies, and standards of practice for advanced practice nurses internationally; 2) describing from a global perspective the core concepts and common features of NP/APN associated with practice domains; and 3) exploring the utility of text mining and visual analytics in identifying the clustered core concepts common to NP/APN roles organized around the five advanced practice domains of the Strong Advanced Practice Model. This article describes the findings of a secondary analysis of an international NP/APN competency mapping project, using innovative text mining and visual analysis techniques to reexamine and summarize the NP/APN role in 19 countries from Africa, Australia, Asia, Europe, and North America. Although weak aggrupation/associations suggest that further work is needed to define the domains of advanced practice with associated model development, visual analysis points to the identification of common concepts and linkages between concepts for each practice domain of advanced practice outlined in the Strong Model. The secondary text mining and visual analysis presented in this article allows for comparison of core elements between advanced practice role descriptions, standards, and competencies globally to ultimately provide a global perspective on the common features of NP/APN roles and areas where further delineation is required

Farmers Markets and the Local Food System: The Case of Gettysburg, Pennsylvania

In order to examine and obtain a better understanding of the local food system within Adams County, Pennsylvania, this study explores the characteristics and perspectives of the customers and vendors at the farmers markets in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. Survey findings from the Gettysburg Farmers Market and the three Adams County Farmers Markets include customer demographic information, perspectives and shopping behavior as well as vendor product information, farm size and location and preference for market management. Introductory background information on the Farm Bill and the influence of agricultural practices on the environment, human health and nutrition and the relationship between farmers markets and the local economy are offered in order to emphasize the value of a well-managed local food system. Conclusions provide evidence that lower income and lower education levels are not sufficiently represented at all the markets and food stamp programs are being underutilized. This study suggests employing additional marketing to target underrepresented demographic groups, public transportation to potentially inaccessible market locations and increased advertisement and encouragement of food stamp programs at all markets in order to expand the customer base and increase access to healthy, local foods for less advantaged citizens. The results from this study are intended to offer evidence that will promote and facilitate market management, strengthen customer/vendor relationships and encourage better ties between the local community and local food systems at the farmers markets within Gettysburg in Adams County, Pennsylvania