Household's vulnerability to shocks in Zambia

Zambia is a county characterized by a high incidence of poverty and exposure to several types of shocks like HIV/AIDS, macroeconomic instability and periodic droughts. In this paper the authors conduct an in depth analysis of the incidence and impact of those shocks on poverty. The analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, carried out using the data on the occurrence of the death of an adult in the previous 12 months and the existence of foster children, shows the existence of a generaldecrease in consumption with the exception of non poor rural families. The deterioration of the economic situation and the related high level of unemployment resulted in a lower level of economic wellbeing. Finally, the analysis of the impact of the drought shows that while a significant percentage (17 percent) of the poorest households in rural areas would experience significant losses in maize production (covering 8 percent of all the households), they are concentrated in a few communities in Southern, Central and Western provinces. In order to identify those households that might suffer more from the negative impact of the shocks and/or have a low level of human capital the authors defined"vulnerable households", those that are likely to be poor and exposed to shocks, and"chronically poor households", those that are likely to be poor and have low levels of human capital outcomes. According to this definition, about 20 percent of the households are vulnerable whilst almost 40 percent are chronically poor and 10 percent are at the same time both vulnerable and chronically poor and therefore at most risk. Private coping mechanisms and private transfers are very common, but they do not seem to be effective in helping households to deal with the adverse impact of shocks. On the other hand, household participation in food for work programs increase after the death of a household member. Therefore there is a need for long term household human capital investments, programs to alleviate the burden of HIV/AIDS, and targeted programs for the alleviating weather related shocks like the drought.Rural Poverty Reduction,Services&Transfers to Poor,Poverty Assessment,Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping,Housing&Human Habitats

In-kind transfers and household food consumption

This paper examines the impact of wheat transfers and cash incomes on wheat consumption and wheat markets. Using propensity score- matching techniques, the total marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for wheat is, on average, 0.33, ranging from essentially zero for Food For Work (a program with large transfers) to 0.51 for Food For Education. Econometric estimates indicate that the MPC for small wheat transfers to poor households is approximately 0.25, while the MPC for wheat out of cash income is near zero. This increase in demand for wheat reduces the potential price effect of three major targeted programs involving small rations (Food For Education, Vulnerable Group Development, and Vulnerable Group Feeding) by about one-third.Transfer payments. ,Incomes. ,Wheat. ,Wheat Economic aspects Bangladesh. ,Food consumption. ,Cereal crops. ,Education. ,Labor. ,Access to education. ,

The Food For Education program in Bangladesh

The Government of Bangladesh launched the innovative Food for Education (FFE) program in 1993. The FFE program provides a free monthly ration of rice or wheat to poor families if their children attend primary school. The goals of this program are to increase primary school enrollment, promote attendance, reduce dropout rates, and enhance the quality of education. This paper presents the findings of a recent International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) evaluation of the FFE program that demonstrates the extent to which these goals were met. This evaluation uses primary data collected from multiple surveys covering schools, households, communities, and foodgrain dealers. The authors first examine the performance of the FFE program, showing that it has largely fulfilled its objectives of increasing school enrollment, promoting school attendance, and preventing dropouts. The enrollment increase was greater for girls than for boys. The quality of education, however, remains a problem. Next, they analyze the targeting effectiveness of the program, its impact on food security, and its efficiency in distributing rations. In general, the FFE program targets low-income households. However, there is considerable scope for improving targeting, as a sizable number of poor households remain excluded from the program even while many nonpoor households are included. Furthermore, the evaluation results indicate that the functioning of the current private-dealer-based foodgrain distribution system of the FFE program is not satisfactory.School children Food ,

In-kind transfers and household food consumption

This paper examines the impact of wheat transfers and cash incomes on wheat consumption and wheat markets. Using propensity score- matching techniques, the total marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for wheat is, on average, 0.33, ranging from essentially zero for Food For Work (a program with large transfers) to 0.51 for Food For Education. Econometric estimates indicate that the MPC for small wheat transfers to poor households is approximately 0.25, while the MPC for wheat out of cash income is near zero. This increase in demand for wheat reduces the potential price effect of three major targeted programs involving small rations (Food For Education, Vulnerable Group Development, and Vulnerable Group Feeding) by about one-third.Transfer payments. ,Incomes. ,Wheat. ,Wheat Economic aspects Bangladesh. ,Food consumption. ,Cereal crops. ,Education. ,Labor. ,Access to education. ,

How to make public works work : a review of the experiences

This paper reviews the experience with public works programs (PWPs) in several countries over the past 20 years to delineate use patterns and to determine the factors contributing to its use as a successful safety net program. The analysis shows that PWP have been used extensively in response to either a one-time large covariate shock, or repeated shocks. In low income countries, PWPs also have an antipoverty or poverty reduction objective. Our review shows that well designed and implemented PWPs can help mitigating income shocks; the program can also be used as an effective anti-poverty instrument. The paper examines the factors behind the observed wide variation in the effectiveness of the program in accomplishing its goals and identifies prerequisites for making PWPs successful safety net interventions capable of protecting the poor from income shocks, thus reducing both temporal and seasonal poverty, while creating useful public goods or services for the communities. For public works programs to be successful, it is important firstly to: a) have clear objectives; b) select projects that can create valuable public goods; and c) ensure predictable funding. Secondly, the success of the program depends critically on careful design and incorporation of all the key design features. Finally, a credible monitoring and evaluation system designed right upfront, prior to launching of theprogram can allow for mid course corrections and to respond to sudden changes which can inhibit effective implementation. The potential of the PWP program is enormous both in countries that have experiences with these programs and especially in countries that never used them. However, more research is needed investigation is needed to better understand the impact of PWPs, such as second round effects from the created assets, the impacts on the labor market, and their cost-effectiveness after factoring in both the immediate and second round benefits from its program.Safety Nets and Transfers,Rural Poverty Reduction,Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Public Sector Economics

Technical Efficiency in Bangladesh Rice Production: Are There Threshold Effects in Farm Size?

Replaced with revised version of poster 07/21/10.Data Envelopment Analysis, Threshold Estimation, technical efficiency, total factor productivity, rice, farm size, Bangladesh, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Productivity Analysis,

Commune Shocks, Household Assets, and Economic Well-Being in Madagascar

Rural households in developing countries are buffeted by environmental, social, health and economic shocks. This paper provides an empirical vignette of the frequency and spatial distribution of such shocks in Madagascar. The association between shocks, community and household assets, and levels of economic well-being (as measured by per-capita expenditures) is then explored, along with the implications for reducing levels of chronic poverty.International Development,

MINNESOTA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH IN RECESSION AND RECOVERY: PART I

This report presents statistical reference series for the study and projection of Minnesota's economic outlook in the 1980's. The reference series serve as baseline forecasts for the assessment on Minnesota's job and income prospects in its basic industries, including agriculture, forestry, mining, manufacturing and services for nonresidents in work and leisure activities. In Part I, two sets of baseline forecasts are presented, namely, short-term quarter-year and long-term five-year forecasts of industry employment and personal earnings and income.Community/Rural/Urban Development,

The 1998 floods in Bangladesh: disaster impacts, household coping strategies, and responses

This report combines a careful analysis of government policy and private foodgrain markets with a detailed survey of 757 households in rural Bangladesh in November and December 1998, about two months after the floodwaters receded. The report describes short- and medium-term government policy measures taken to encourage private trade, including an earlier trade liberalization that permitted private-sector imports of rice from India that stabilized private markets and largely offset the decline in production. The impact of the floods on household assets, employment, consumption, and nutritional outcomes is analyzed using the micro-level survey data. The study finds that flood-exposed households were, in general, able to avoid severe declines in food consumption and nutritional status through a combination of private-sector borrowing... and targeted government and NGO transfers.Food relief Bangladesh., Food supply Bangladesh., Disasters Asia., Households Bangladesh.,

Public policy, food markets, and household coping strategies in Bangladesh

"Flooding is a normal part of the ecology of Bangladesh. The 1998 flood was especially serious because of its depth and duration. At its peak, the flood covered two-thirds of the country, causing severe damage to the rice crop and threatening the food security of millions of households. Total rice production losses exceeded 2 million tons—about 10 percent of annual consumption. In sharp contrast to earlier flood disasters, particularly that of 1974, no major food crisis occurred. Instead, large-scale, private-sector imports, made possible by trade liberalization in the early 1990s, stabilized rice markets. Government food transfers to poor households also limited the impact of the flood on household access to food. This paper sheds light on the contribution of price stabilization to household food security following a major natural shock through estimates of the impact of rice prices and other factors on calorie consumption in 1998 and 1999. More broadly, the paper examines the components of the public and private response that prevented a major food crisis." from Abstract"Safety nets ,households ,