Eighteen-year follow-up of the Göteborg Randomized Population-based Prostate Cancer Screening Trial : effect of sociodemographic variables on participation, prostate cancer incidence and mortality

Objective: This study examined whether previously reported results, indicating that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening can reduce prostate cancer (PC) mortality regardless of sociodemographic inequality, could be corroborated in an 18 year follow-up. Materials and methods: In 1994, 20,000 men aged 50–64 years were randomized from the Göteborg population register to PSA screening or control (1:1) (study ID: ISRCTN54449243). Men in the screening group (n = 9950) were invited for biennial PSA testing up to the median age of 69 years. Prostate biopsy was recommended for men with PSA ≥2.5 ng/ml. Last follow-up was on 31 December 2012. Results: In the screening group, 77% (7647/9950) attended at least once. After 18 years, 1396 men in the screening group and 962 controls had been diagnosed with PC [hazard ratio 1.51, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.39–1.64]. Cumulative PC mortality was 0.98% (95% CI 0.78–1.22%) in the screening group versus 1.50% (95% CI 1.26–1.79%) in controls, an absolute reduction of 0.52% (95% CI 0.17–0.87%). The rate ratio (RR) for PC death was 0.65 (95% CI 0.49–0.87). To prevent one death from PC, the number needed to invite was 231 and the number needed to diagnose was 10. Systematic PSA screening demonstrated greater benefit in PC mortality for men who started screening at age 55–59 years (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.29–0.78) and men with low education (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.31–0.78). Conclusions: These data corroborate previous findings that systematic PSA screening reduces PC mortality and suggest that systematic screening may reduce sociodemographic inequality in PC mortality

Results from 22 years of Followup in the Göteborg Randomized Population-Based Prostate Cancer Screening Trial

Purpose:Our goal was to analyze results from 22 years of followup in the Göteborg randomized prostate cancer (PC) screening trial.Materials and Methods:In December 1994, 20,000 men born 1930-1944 were randomly extracted from the Swedish population register and were randomized (1:1) into either a screening group (SG) or to a control group (CG). Men in the SG were repeatedly invited for biennial prostate specific antigen testing up to an average age of 69 years. Main endpoints were PC incidence and mortality (intention-to-screen principle).Results:After 22 years, 1,528 men in the SG and 1,124 men in the CG had been diagnosed with PC. In total, 112 PC deaths occurred in the SG and 158 in the CG. Compared with the CG, the SG showed a PC incidence rate ratio (RR) of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.31-1.53) and a PC mortality RR of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.55-0.91). The 22-year cumulative PC mortality rate was 1.55% (95% CI, 1.29-1.86) in the SG and 2.13% (95% CI, 1.83-2.49) in the CG. Correction for nonattendance (Cuzick method) yielded a RR of PC mortality of 0.59 (95% CI, 0.43-0.80). Number needed to invite and number needed to diagnose was estimated to 221 and 9, respectively. PC death risk was increased in the following groups: nontesting men, men entering the program after age 60 and men with >10 years of followup after screening termination.Conclusions:Prostate specific antigen-based screening substantially decreases PC mortality. However, not attending, starting after age 60 and stopping at age 70 seem to be major pitfalls regarding PC death risk