Dietary saturated fat and low-grade inflammation modified by accelerometer-measured physical activity in adolescence: results from the GINIplus and LISA birth cohorts

BackgroundSaturated fatty acids (SFA) have been reported to promote inflammation. Nevertheless, evidence linking dietary SFA and low-grade inflammation in adolescents is scarce and inconsistent. The modulatory role of physical activity (PA) on fat metabolism and inflammation may provide a potential explanation. Thus, we assessed the association of dietary SFA with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), a marker of low-grade inflammation, in 15-year-olds, and evaluated possible interactions between dietary SFA and different levels of PA.MethodsChildren participating in the 15-year follow-ups of the GINIplus and LISA German birth cohort studies were included (N=824). SFA intake was estimated by means of a food frequency questionnaire and PA recorded by accelerometers. Average daily minutes of PA were classified into sedentary, light and moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA), using Freedson's cut-offs. HsCRP concentrations were measured in serum and categorized into 3 sex-specific levels (below detection limit (I), above 75th percentile (III), in between (II)). Sex-stratified cross-sectional associations between SFA and hsCRP were assessed using multinomial logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. Interaction terms were included between SFA and the different PA levels;and if significant interactions were observed, analyses stratified by tertiles of the relevant PA levels were performed. Relative risk ratios (RRR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were presented for a 1% increase in SFA.ResultsAn inverse association was observed between SFA intake and hsCRP (II vs. I) in males (RRR=0.85 [95%CI=0.76;0.96], p=0.008), whereas no significant association was observed in females. A significant interaction was observed with sedentary and light PA but not with MVPA in both sexes (p<0.05). Stratified analyses indicated a significant inverse association between SFA and medium hsCRP levels in males in the highest light PA tertile (hsCRP II vs. I: 0.67 [0.517;0.858], p=0.002).ConclusionOur findings do not support a detrimental role of dietary SFA in low-grade inflammation among adolescents. In males, higher dietary SFA was associated with lower hsCRP, although this should be interpreted in the context of possibly correlated nutrients. Children spending the most time in light PA drove the observed inverse association, suggesting a synergistic effect of SFA and lifestyle PA in the resultant inflammatory response

FADS1 FADS2 Gene Cluster, PUFA Intake and Blood Lipids in Children: Results from the GINIplus and LISAplus Studies

BACKGROUND: Elevated cholesterol levels in children can be a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases in later life. In adults, it has been shown that blood lipid levels are strongly influenced by polymorphisms in the fatty acid desaturase (FADS) gene cluster in addition to nutritional and other exogenous and endogenous determinants. Our aim was to investigate whether lipid levels are determined by the FADS genotype already in children and whether this association interacts with dietary intake of n-3 fatty acids. METHODS: The analysis was based on data of 2006 children from two German prospective birth cohort studies. Total cholesterol, HDL, LDL and triglycerides were measured at 10 years of age. Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the FADS gene cluster were genotyped. Dietary n-3 fatty acid intake was assessed by food frequency questionnaire. Linear regression modeling was used to assess the association between lipid levels, n-3 fatty acid intake and FADS genotype. RESULTS: Individuals carrying the homozygous minor allele had lower levels of total cholesterol [means ratio (MR) ranging from 0.96 (p = 0.0093) to 0.98 (p = 0.2949), depending on SNPs] and LDL [MR between 0.94 (p = 0.0179) and 0.97 (p = 0.2963)] compared to homozygous major allele carriers. Carriers of the heterozygous allele showed lower HDL levels [β between -0.04 (p = 0.0074) to -0.01 (p = 0.3318)] and higher triglyceride levels [MR ranging from 1.06 (p = 0.0065) to 1.07 (p = 0.0028)] compared to homozygous major allele carriers. A higher n-3 PUFA intake was associated with higher concentrations of total cholesterol, LDL, HDL and lower triglyceride levels, but these associations did not interact with the FADS1 FADS2 genotype. CONCLUSION: Total cholesterol, HDL, LDL and triglyceride concentrations may be influenced by the FADS1 FADS2 genotype already in 10 year old children. Genetically determined blood lipid levels during childhood might differentially predispose individuals to the development of cardiovascular diseases later in life

Genome-Wide Screen for Mycobacterium tuberculosis Genes That Regulate Host Immunity

In spite of its highly immunogenic properties, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) establishes persistent infection in otherwise healthy individuals, making it one of the most widespread and deadly human pathogens. Mtb's prolonged survival may reflect production of microbial factors that prevent even more vigorous immunity (quantitative effect) or that divert the immune response to a non-sterilizing mode (qualitative effect). Disruption of Mtb genes has produced a list of several dozen candidate immunomodulatory factors. Here we used robotic fluorescence microscopy to screen 10,100 loss-of-function transposon mutants of Mtb for their impact on the expression of promoter-reporter constructs for 12 host immune response genes in a mouse macrophage cell line. The screen identified 364 candidate immunoregulatory genes. To illustrate the utility of the candidate list, we confirmed the impact of 35 Mtb mutant strains on expression of endogenous immune response genes in primary macrophages. Detailed analysis focused on a strain of Mtb in which a transposon disrupts Rv0431, a gene encoding a conserved protein of unknown function. This mutant elicited much more macrophage TNFα, IL-12p40 and IL-6 in vitro than wild type Mtb, and was attenuated in the mouse. The mutant list provides a platform for exploring the immunobiology of tuberculosis, for example, by combining immunoregulatory mutations in a candidate vaccine strain

The Dark Energy Survey : more than dark energy – an overview

This overview paper describes the legacy prospect and discovery potential of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) beyond cosmological studies, illustrating it with examples from the DES early data. DES is using a wide-field camera (DECam) on the 4 m Blanco Telescope in Chile to image 5000 sq deg of the sky in five filters (grizY). By its completion, the survey is expected to have generated a catalogue of 300 million galaxies with photometric redshifts and 100 million stars. In addition, a time-domain survey search over 27 sq deg is expected to yield a sample of thousands of Type Ia supernovae and other transients. The main goals of DES are to characterize dark energy and dark matter, and to test alternative models of gravity; these goals will be pursued by studying large-scale structure, cluster counts, weak gravitational lensing and Type Ia supernovae. However, DES also provides a rich data set which allows us to study many other aspects of astrophysics. In this paper, we focus on additional science with DES, emphasizing areas where the survey makes a difference with respect to other current surveys. The paper illustrates, using early data (from ‘Science Verification’, and from the first, second and third seasons of observations), what DES can tell us about the Solar system, the Milky Way, galaxy evolution, quasars and other topics. In addition, we show that if the cosmological model is assumed to be +cold dark matter, then important astrophysics can be deduced from the primary DES probes. Highlights from DES early data include the discovery of 34 trans-Neptunian objects, 17 dwarf satellites of the Milky Way, one published z > 6 quasar (and more confirmed) and two published superluminous supernovae (and more confirmed)

Global and national Burden of diseases and injuries among children and adolescents between 1990 and 2013

Importance The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. Objective To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. Evidence Review Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. Findings Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world’s deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world’s diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Conclusions and Relevance Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed

Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

IMPORTANCE ‐ Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease  could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health  conditions.  OBJECTIVE – To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of chronic kidney  disease, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).  DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS – Individual level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from  the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5,222,711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected  from April, 1970 through January, 2017. A two‐stage analysis was performed, with each study first  analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Since clinical variables were  often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately within participants  with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external  cohorts (N=2,253,540). EXPOSURE Demographic and clinical factors.  MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES – Incident eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2.  RESULTS – In 4,441,084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% female), there were  660,856 incident cases of reduced eGFR during a mean follow‐up of 4.2 years. In 781,627 participants  with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% female), there were 313,646 incident cases during a mean follow‐up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5‐year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, BMI, and albuminuria. For participants  with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction  between the two. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5‐year predicted probability of  0.845 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.789‐0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.750‐0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 out of 13 (69%) study populations had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was  similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 out of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE – Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed in over 5 million people from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and  variable calibration in diverse populations

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years : an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoea! disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. Findings Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78.4 deaths (70.1-87.1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69.6% (63.1-74.6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13.3% decrease, 11.2-15.5), childhood wasting (9.9% decrease, 9.6-10.2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6.9% decrease, 4-8-8-4). Interpretation Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning