Improving supplementary feeding in species conservation

Supplementary feeding is often a knee-jerk reaction to population declines, and its application is not critically evaluated, leading to polarized views among managers on its usefulness. Here, we advocate a more strategic approach to supplementary feeding so that the choice to use it is clearly justified over, or in combination with, other management actions and the predicted consequences are then critically assessed following implementation. We propose combining methods from a set of specialist disciplines that will allow critical evaluation of the need, benefit, and risks of food supplementation. Through the use of nutritional ecology, population ecology, and structured decision making, conservation managers can make better choices about what and how to feed by estimating consequences on population recovery across a range of possible actions. This structured approach also informs targeted monitoring and more clearly allows supplementary feeding to be integrated in recovery plans and reduces the risk of inefficient decisions. In New Zealand, managers of the endangered Hihi (Notiomystis cincta) often rely on supplementary feeding to support reintroduced populations. On Kapiti island the reintroduced Hihi population has responded well to food supplementation, but the logistics of providing an increasing demand recently outstretched management capacity. To decide whether and how the feeding regime should be revised, managers used a structured decision making approach informed by population responses to alternative feeding regimes. The decision was made to reduce the spatial distribution of feeders and invest saved time in increasing volume of food delivered into a smaller core area. The approach used allowed a transparent and defendable management decision in regard to supplementary feeding, reflecting the multiple objectives of managers and their priorities

Layer Features of the Lattice Gas Model for Self-Organized Criticality

A layer-by-layer description of the asymmetric lattice gas model for 1/f-noise suggested by Jensen [Phys. Rev. Lett. 64, 3103 (1990)] is presented. The power spectra of the lattice layers in the direction perpendicular to the particle flux is studied in order to understand how the white noise at the input boundary evolves, on the average, into 1/f-noise for the system. The effects of high boundary drive and uniform driving force on the power spectrum of the total number of diffusing particles are considered. In the case of nearest-neighbor particle interactions, high statistics simulation results show that the power spectra of single lattice layers are characterized by different $\beta_x$ exponents such that $\beta_x \to 1.9$ as one approaches the outer boundary.Comment: LaTeX, figures upon reques

Stochastics theory of log-periodic patterns

We introduce an analytical model based on birth-death clustering processes to help understanding the empirical log-periodic corrections to power-law scaling and the finite-time singularity as reported in several domains including rupture, earthquakes, world population and financial systems. In our stochastics theory log-periodicities are a consequence of transient clusters induced by an entropy-like term that may reflect the amount of cooperative information carried by the state of a large system of different species. The clustering completion rates for the system are assumed to be given by a simple linear death process. The singularity at t_{o} is derived in terms of birth-death clustering coefficients.Comment: LaTeX, 1 ps figure - To appear J. Phys. A: Math & Ge

Multifractal Properties of Price Fluctuations of Stocks and Commodities

We analyze daily prices of 29 commodities and 2449 stocks, each over a period of $\approx 15$ years. We find that the price fluctuations for commodities have a significantly broader multifractal spectrum than for stocks. We also propose that multifractal properties of both stocks and commodities can be attributed mainly to the broad probability distribution of price fluctuations and secondarily to their temporal organization. Furthermore, we propose that, for commodities, stronger higher order correlations in price fluctuations result in broader multifractal spectra.Comment: Published in Euro Physics Letters (14 pages, 5 figures

Effective Interactions and Volume Energies in Charge-Stabilized Colloidal Suspensions

Charge-stabilized colloidal suspensions can be conveniently described by formally reducing the macroion-microion mixture to an equivalent one-component system of pseudo-particles. Within this scheme, the utility of a linear response approximation for deriving effective interparticle interactions has been demonstrated [M. J. Grimson and M. Silbert, Mol. Phys. 74, 397 (1991)]. Here the response approach is extended to suspensions of finite-sized macroions and used to derive explicit expressions for (1) an effective electrostatic pair interaction between pseudo-macroions and (2) an associated volume energy that contributes to the total free energy. The derivation recovers precisely the form of the DLVO screened-Coulomb effective pair interaction for spherical macroions and makes manifest the important influence of the volume energy on thermodynamic properties of deionized suspensions. Excluded volume corrections are implicitly incorporated through a natural modification of the inverse screening length. By including nonlinear response of counterions to macroions, the theory may be generalized to systematically investigate effective many-body interactions.Comment: 13 pages (J. Phys.: Condensed Matter, in press

Agricultural Water Conservation and Efficiency in California - A Commentary

This is a Commentary on some of the key points that are presented in “More with Less: Agricultural Water Conservation and Efficiency in California” by Cooley, ChristianSmith, and Gleick of the Pacific Institute, September 2008 (referred to as the “PacInst Paper” in the remainder of this discussion). The authors of this Commentary have over 120 years combined of experience in agricultural and landscape irrigation. They have worked world-wide in design and installation of all types of irrigation systems (including automated drip systems from 1975 on), design and implementation of irrigation scheduling programs since 1977; design and implementation of water conservation programs at state, water district, and farm levels; teaching programs regarding water-related energy efficiency in both university and extension environments; and basic and applied research. Summary biographies are attached at the end of this discussio

Assessing the risks of changing ongoing management of endangered species

Recovery programmes for endangered species can become increasingly demanding over time, but managers may be reluctant to change ongoing actions that are believed to be assisting recovery. We used a quantitative risk assessment to choose support strategies for a reintroduced population of Mauritius olive white‐eyes Zosterops chloronothos. Facing increasing costs, managers considered changing the ongoing supplementary feeding strategy, but at the same time worried this could jeopardize the observed positive population trend. We used a feeding experiment to compare the current feeding regime and a cheaper alternative (a simple sugar/water mix). Results suggested the cheaper alternative would only marginally reduce population vital rates. We assessed the influence of these results and the associated uncertainty on population recovery and management costs using two decision‐analytic criteria, incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio and stochastic dominance. The new feeding regime was expected to be, on average, more cost‐effective than the status quo. Moreover, even negative outcomes would only likely mean a slower growing population, not a declining one, whereas not changing feeding regime actually entailed greater risk. Because shifting from the current regime to a cheaper sugar/water mixture was both a risk‐averse and a cost‐effective choice, we decided to implement this change. Four years after the experiment, the population continues to grow and costs have been contained, matching predictions almost exactly. In this case, the field experiment provided useful empirical information about prospective actions; the risk analysis then helped us understand the real implications of changing the feeding regime. We encourage managers of recovery plans facing a similar situation to explicitly recognize trade‐offs and risk aversion, and address them by combining targeted research and formal decision analysis

Multifractality in Time Series

We apply the concepts of multifractal physics to financial time series in order to characterize the onset of crash for the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index x(t). It is found that within the framework of multifractality, the "analogous" specific heat of the S&P500 discrete price index displays a shoulder to the right of the main peak for low values of time lags. On decreasing T, the presence of the shoulder is a consequence of the peaked, temporal x(t+T)-x(t) fluctuations in this regime. For large time lags (T>80), we have found that C_{q} displays typical features of a classical phase transition at a critical point. An example of such dynamic phase transition in a simple economic model system, based on a mapping with multifractality phenomena in random multiplicative processes, is also presented by applying former results obtained with a continuous probability theory for describing scaling measures.Comment: 22 pages, Revtex, 4 ps figures - To appear J. Phys. A (2000

Finite-Size Scaling in Two-dimensional Continuum Percolation Models

We test the universal finite-size scaling of the cluster mass order parameter in two-dimensional (2D) isotropic and directed continuum percolation models below the percolation threshold by computer simulations. We found that the simulation data in the 2D continuum models obey the same scaling expression of mass M to sample size L as generally accepted for isotropic lattice problems, but with a positive sign of the slope in the ln-ln plot of M versus L. Another interesting aspect of the finite-size 2D models is also suggested by plotting the normalized mass in 2D continuum and lattice bond percolation models, versus an effective percolation parameter, independently of the system structure (i.e. lattice or continuum) and of the possible directions allowed for percolation (i.e. isotropic or directed) in regions close to the percolation thresholds. Our study is the first attempt to map the scaling behaviour of the mass for both lattice and continuum model systems into one curve.Comment: 9 pages, Revtex, 2 PostScript figure

Model for Anisotropic Directed Percolation

We propose a simulation model to study the properties of directed percolation in two-dimensional (2D) anisotropic random media. The degree of anisotropy in the model is given by the ratio $\mu$ between the axes of a semi-ellipse enclosing the bonds that promote percolation in one direction. At percolation, this simple model shows that the average number of bonds per site in 2D is an invariant equal to 2.8 independently of $\mu$. This result suggests that Sinai's theorem proposed originally for isotropic percolation is also valid for anisotropic directed percolation problems. The new invariant also yields a constant fractal dimension $D_{f} \sim 1.71$ for all $\mu$, which is the same value found in isotropic directed percolation (i.e., $\mu = 1$).Comment: RevTeX, 9 pages, 3 figures. To appear in Phys.Rev.