Challenges of socio-economically evaluating wildfire management in and adjacent to non-industrial private forestland in the Western United States

Non-industrial private forests (NIPFs) in the United States generate many unpriced benefits for both the landholder and society generally. These values can be enhanced or diminished by wildfire management in situ and on adjacent public land. This paper considers the problem of accommodating non-marketed NIPF values affected by wildfire in social benefit-cost analysis to evaluate the efficiency of fire suppression activities. There are substantial gaps in scientific understanding about how the spatial and temporal provision of non-market values are affected by wildfire, and considerable challenges in evaluating social welfare change arising from specific wildfire events. This presents serious impediments to adapting price-based decision-support tools to incorporate non-market values. Departure from the historic range and variability of ecological conditions is proposed as an alternative framework to support wildfire management decisions in and adjacent to NIPF when non-market values are important

Land management with ecological and economic objectives : developing a production possibility set of wildlife species persistence and timber harvest value using simulated annealing

An integrated model combining a wildlife population simulation model, and timber harvest and growth models was developed to explore the tradeoffs between the likelihood of persistence of a wildlife species and timber harvest values on a landscape in the Central Oregon Cascades. Simulated annealing, a heuristic optimization technique, was used to identify harvest schedules that maximized the net present value of timber harvest relative to a given wildlife habitat constraint over a 100 year planning period. This habitat constraint was identified by a logit regression model that estimated the likelihood of species persistence from a series of weighted habitat scores developed from extensive simulation work within the wildlife population model. By solving this problem for a range of different species persistence constraints a production possibility frontier is developed that shows the relative tradeoffs between timber harvest value and likelihood of species persistence on this landscape. Although the results are specific to the wildlife species and the landscapes analyzed, the approach is general and may provide a structure for future models that will allow land managers and forest planners to become more informed about the tradeoffs among competing resources

Examining heterogeneity and wildfire management expenditures using spatially and temporally descriptive data

Increasing costs of wildfire management have highlighted the need to better understand suppression expenditures and potential tradeoffs of land management activities that may affect fire risks. Spatially and temporally descriptive data is used to develop a model of wildfire suppression expenditures, providing new insights into the role of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in determining expenditures. Incorporating heterogeneity improves model fit and predictive ability over a model with data based on the point and time of fire ignition. The model is potentially useful for providing expenditure information for simulated fire applications and post-season evaluation of suppression activities

Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure

The occurrence of wildfires within municipal watersheds can result in significant impacts to water quality and ultimately human health and safety. In this paper, we illustrate the application of geospatial analysis and burn probability modeling to assess the exposure of municipal watersheds to wildfire. Our assessment of wildfire exposure consists of two primary components: (1) wildfire hazard, which we characterize with burn probability, fireline intensity, and a composite index, and (2) geospatial intersection of watershed polygons with spatially resolved wildfire hazard metrics. This effort enhances investigation into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior and enables quantitative comparisons of exposure across watersheds on the basis of a novel, integrated measure of wildfire hazard. As a case study, we consider the municipal watersheds located on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest (BDNF) in Montana, United States. We present simulation results to highlight exposure across watersheds and generally demonstrate vast differences in fire likelihood, fire behavior, and expected area burned among the analyzed municipal watersheds. We describe how this information can be incorporated into risk-based strategic fuels management planning and across the broader wildfire management spectrum. To conclude, we discuss strengths and limitations of our approach and offer potential future expansions.Keywords: Hazard analysis, Wildfire, Municipal watersheds, Exposure analysis, Fire modelin

Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs

Where a legacy of aggressive wildland fire suppression has left forests in need of fuel reduction, allowing wildland fire to burn may provide fuel treatment benefits, thereby reducing suppression costs from subsequent fires. The least-cost-plus-net-value-change model of wildland fire economics includes benefits of wildfire in a framework for evaluating suppression options. In this study, we estimated one component of that benefit – the expected present value of the reduction in suppression costs for subsequent fires arising from the fuel treatment effect of a current fire. To that end, we employed Monte Carlo methods to generate a set of scenarios for subsequent fire ignition and weather events, which are referred to as sample paths, for a study area in central Oregon. We simulated fire on the landscape over a 100-year time horizon using existing models of fire behaviour, vegetation and fuels development, and suppression effectiveness, and we estimated suppression costs using an existing suppression cost model. Our estimates suggest that the potential cost savings may be substantial. Further research is needed to estimate the full least-cost-plus-net-value-change model. This line of research will extend the set of tools available for developing wildfire management plans for forested landscapes.Keywords: bio-economic modelling, wildland fire management, forest economics, forest fire polic

Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests

Substantial investments in fuel management activities on national forests in the western US are part of a national strategy to reduce human and ecological losses from catastrophic wildfire and create fire resilient landscapes. Prioritizing these investments within and among national forests remains a challenge, partly because a comprehensive assessment that establishes the current wildfire risk and exposure does not exist, making it difficult to identify national priorities and target specific areas for fuel management. To gain a broader understanding of wildfire exposure in the national forest system, we analyzed an array of simulated and empirical data on wildfire activity and fuel treatment investments on the 82 western US national forests. We first summarized recent fire data to examine variation among the Forests in ignition frequency and burned area in relation to investments in fuel reduction treatments. We then used simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale spatial variation in burn probability and intensity. We also estimated the probability of a mega-fire event on each of the Forests, and the transmission of fires ignited on national forests to the surrounding urban interface. The analysis showed a good correspondence between recent area burned and predictions from the simulation models. The modeling also illustrated the magnitude of the variation in both burn probability and intensity among and within Forests. Simulated burn probabilities in most instances were lower than historical, reflecting fire exclusion on many national forests. Simulated wildfire transmission from national forests to the urban interface was highly variable among the Forests. We discuss how the results of the study can be used to prioritize investments in hazardous fuel reduction within a comprehensive multi-scale risk management framework.Keywords: Risk assessment, Wildfire exposure, Wildfire risk, Burn probability, National fores

THE ANALYSIS OF PUNCTUATION USE IN UNPUNCTUATED PASSAGES: A DISCOURSE-GRAPHOLOGY PERSPECTIVE

Diski Eginda Rismianti. 14111310149. The Analysis of Punctuation Use in Unpunctuated Passages: A Discourse-Graphology Perspective. Punctuation is the basic element in writing which is important to clarify meaning. Without punctuation or ignoring the rule of punctuation in a passage, the writing will be ambiguous. The writing course in IAIN Syekh Nurjati Cirebon is studied by English Student in 5 levels. Based the phenomenon, this research aims to find out the students’ error in the use of punctuation and how does the use relate to the meaning of restrictive and nonrestrictive elements. The analyses process in this research is constructed based on the theory from Marcella Frank. This research used qualitative method in analyzing data where the data contains the two original passages which is taken from the book of academic writing and the three participants’ work which are got by examining the passages as a main data source to be analyzed in this research. Those passages are changed be unpunctuated passages then examined to the 3 EFL learner which comes from the high score, medium score, and low score of writing. The result of this analysis shows that there are fifteen punctuation marks which are used in the two passages; they are capitalization, periods, commas, semicolons, colons, quotation marks, parentheses, apostrophes, hyphen, en dashes, ellipses, percent, underscore, at sign, and citation. FP has highest number of error in Capitalization with 100%. SP has big problem in commas exactly in the nineteenth rule with 90% and TP are wrong in parentheses. For restrictive and nonrestrictive elements, restrictive elements has higher number than nonrestrictive elements, except is in appositive. The numbers of the elements are same with the three participants. The differences come from the number of appositive which passages has higher number of nonrestrictive appositive than restrictive appositives. The results show that punctuation in unpunctuated passages used the rule from APA (American Psychological Association). The effects of the use of punctuation are in the number of sentences and clauses, types of phrases, and restrictive and nonrestrictive elements. For the students’ error, there are some sentences in FP and TP which only contain phrase. Key words: Punctuation Marks, Restrictive and Nonrestrictive Clause, Restrictive and Nonrestrictive Phrase, Restrictive and Nonrestrictive Appositives

The Pharmacogenomics of Bipolar Disorder study (PGBD): Identification of genes for lithium response in a prospective sample

Background: Bipolar disorder is a serious and common psychiatric disorder characterized by manic and depressive mood switches and a relapsing and remitting course. The cornerstone of clinical management is stabilization and prophylaxis using mood-stabilizing medications to reduce both manic and depressive symptoms. Lithium remains the gold standard of treatment with the strongest data for both efficacy and suicide prevention. However, many patients do not respond to this medication, and clinically there is a great need for tools to aid the clinician in selecting the correct treatment. Large genome wide association studies (GWAS) investigating retrospectively the effect of lithium response are in the pipeline; however, few large prospective studies on genetic predictors to of lithium response have yet been conducted. The purpose of this project is to identify genes that are associated with lithium response in a large prospective cohort of bipolar patients and to better understand the mechanism of action of lithium and the variation in the genome that influences clinical response. Methods/Design: This study is an 11-site prospective non-randomized open trial of lithium designed to ascertain a cohort of 700 subjects with bipolar I disorder who experience protocol-defined relapse prevention as a result of treatment with lithium monotherapy. All patients will be diagnosed using the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies (DIGS) and will then enter a 2-year follow-up period on lithium monotherapy if and when they exhibit a score of 1 (normal, not ill), 2 (minimally ill) or 3 (mildly ill) on the Clinical Global Impressions of Severity Scale for Bipolar Disorder (CGI-S-BP Overall Bipolar Illness) for 4 of the 5 preceding weeks. Lithium will be titrated as clinically appropriate, not to exceed serum levels of 1.2 mEq/L. The sample will be evaluated longitudinally using a wide range of clinical scales, cognitive assessments and laboratory tests. On relapse, patients will be discontinued or crossed-over to treatment with valproic acid (VPA) or treatment as usual (TAU). Relapse is defined as a DSM-IV manic, major depressive or mixed episode or if the treating physician decides a change in medication is clinically necessary. The sample will be genotyped for GWAS. The outcome for lithium response will be analyzed as a time to event, where the event is defined as clinical relapse, using a Cox Proportional Hazards model. Positive single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from past genetic retrospective studies of lithium response, the Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen), will be tested in this prospective study sample; a meta-analysis of these samples will then be performed. Finally, neurons will be derived from pluripotent stem cells from lithium responders and non-responders and tested in vivo for response to lithium by gene expression studies. SNPs in genes identified in these cellular studies will also be tested for association to response. Discussion: Lithium is an extraordinarily important therapeutic drug in the clinical management of patients suffering from bipolar disorder. However, a significant proportion of patients, 30–40 %, fail to respond, and there is currently no method to identify the good lithium responders before initiation of treatment. Converging evidence suggests that genetic factors play a strong role in the variation of response to lithium, but only a few genes have been tested and the samples have largely been retrospective or quite small. The current study will collect an entirely unique sample of 700 patients with bipolar disorder to be stabilized on lithium monotherapy and followed for up to 2 years. This study will produce useful information to improve the understanding of the mechanism of action of lithium and will add to the development of a method to predict individual response to lithium, thereby accelerating recovery and reducing suffering and cost.publishedVersio

Focal adhesion is associated with lithium response in bipolar disorder: evidence from a network-based multi-omics analysis

Lithium (Li) is one of the most effective drugs for treating bipolar disorder (BD), however, there is presently no way to predict response to guide treatment. The aim of this study is to identify functional genes and pathways that distinguish BD Li responders (LR) from BD Li non-responders (NR). An initial Pharmacogenomics of Bipolar Disorder study (PGBD) GWAS of lithium response did not provide any significant results. As a result, we then employed network-based integrative analysis of transcriptomic and genomic data. In transcriptomic study of iPSC-derived neurons, 41 significantly differentially expressed (DE) genes were identified in LR vs NR regardless of lithium exposure. In the PGBD, post-GWAS gene prioritization using the GWA-boosting (GWAB) approach identified 1119 candidate genes. Following DE-derived network propagation, there was a highly significant overlap of genes between the top 500- and top 2000-proximal gene networks and the GWAB gene list (Phypergeometric = 1.28E–09 and 4.10E–18, respectively). Functional enrichment analyses of the top 500 proximal network genes identified focal adhesion and the extracellular matrix (ECM) as the most significant functions. Our findings suggest that the difference between LR and NR was a much greater effect than that of lithium. The direct impact of dysregulation of focal adhesion on axon guidance and neuronal circuits could underpin mechanisms of response to lithium, as well as underlying BD. It also highlights the power of integrative multi-omics analysis of transcriptomic and genomic profiling to gain molecular insights into lithium response in BD.publishedVersio