Measuring Policy Content on the U.S. Supreme Court

Political scientists have developed increasingly sophisticated understandings of the influences on Supreme Court decision making. Yet, much less attention has been paid to empirical measures of the Court’s ideological output. We develop a theory of the interactions between rational litigants, lower court judges, and Supreme Court justices. We argue that the most common measure of the Supreme Court’s ideological output—whether the Court’s decision is liberal or conservative—suffers from systematic bias. We trace this bias empirically and explain the undesirable consequences it has for empirical analyses of judicial behavior. Specifically, we show that, although the Court’s preferences are positively correlated with the ideological direction of the justices’ decision to reverse a lower court, the attitudes of the justices are negatively related—and significantly so—to the ideological direction of outcomes that affirm lower court decisions. We also offer a solution that allows scholars to work around this ‘‘affirmance bias.’

Holographic flows to IR Lifshitz spacetimes

Recently we studied `vanishing' horizon limits of `boosted' black D3-brane geometry \cite{hsnr}. The type IIB solutions obtained by taking these special double limits were found to describe nonrelativistic Lifshitz spacetimes at zero temperature. In the present work we study these limits for TsT black-hole solutions which include $B$-field. The new Galilean solutions describe a holographic RG flow from Schr\"odinger ($a=2$) spacetime in UV to a Lifshitz universe ($a=3$) in the IR.Comment: 10 pages; v2: A bad typo in eq.8 corrected; v3: Discussion and reference on Kaigorodov spaces included, correction in sec-3, to be published in JHE

Constructing Lifshitz solutions from AdS

Under general assumptions, we show that a gravitational theory in d+1 dimensions admitting an AdS solution can be reduced to a d-dimensional theory containing a Lifshitz solution with dynamical exponent z=2. Working in a d=4, N=2 supergravity setup, we prove that if the AdS background is N=2 supersymmetric, then the Lifshitz geometry preserves 1/4 of the supercharges, and we construct the corresponding Killing spinors. We illustrate these results in examples from supersymmetric consistent truncations of type IIB supergravity, enhancing the class of known 4-dimensional Lifshitz solutions of string theory. As a byproduct, we find a new AdS4 x S1 x T(1,1) solution of type IIB.Comment: 29 pages, no figures; v2 minor corrections, a reference adde

Lifshitz black holes in string theory

We provide the first black hole solutions with Lifshitz asymptotics found in string theory. These are expected to be dual to models enjoying anisotropic scale invariance with dynamical exponent z=2 at finite temperature. We employ a consistent truncation of type IIB supergravity to four dimensions with an arbitrary 5-dimensional Einstein manifold times a circle as internal geometry. New interesting features are found that significantly differ from previous results in phenomenological models. In particular, small black holes are shown to be thermodynamically unstable, analogously to the usual AdS-Schwarzschild black holes, and extremality is never reached. This signals a possible Hawking-Page like phase transition at low temperatures.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures. v2 references adde

Trends in prevalence, mortality, and morbidity associated with high systolic blood pressure in Brazil from 1990 to 2017 : estimates from the “Global Burden of Disease 2017” (GBD 2017) study

Background: Hypertension remains the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) worldwide, and its impact in Brazil should be assessed in order to better address the issue. We aimed to describe trends in prevalence and burden of disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) among Brazilians ≥ 25 years old according to sex and federal units (FU) using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment developed for the GBD study to estimate trends in attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), by sex, and FU for HSBP from 1990 to 2017. This study included 14 HSBP-outcome pairs. HSBP was defined as ≥ 140 mmHg for prevalence estimates, and a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) of 110–115 mmHg was considered for disease burden. We estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs attributed to HSBP. We also explored the drivers of trends in HSBP burden, as well as the correlation between disease burden and sociodemographic development index (SDI). Results: In Brazil, the prevalence of HSBP is 18.9% (95% uncertainty intervals [UI] 18.5–19.3%), with an annual 0.4% increase rate, while age-standardized death rates attributable to HSBP decreased from 189.2 (95%UI 168.5–209.2) deaths to 104.8 (95%UI 94.9–114.4) deaths per 100,000 from 1990 to 2017. In spite of that, the total number of deaths attributable to HSBP increased 53.4% and HSBP raised from 3rd to 1st position, as the leading risk factor for deaths during the period. Regarding total DALYs, HSBP raised from 4th in 1990 to 2nd cause in 2017. The main driver of change of HSBP burden is population aging. Across FUs, the reduction in the age-standardized death rates attributable to HSBP correlated with higher SDI. Conclusions: While HSBP prevalence shows an increasing trend, age-standardized death and DALY rates are decreasing in Brazil, probably as results of successful public policies for CVD secondary prevention and control, but suboptimal control of its determinants. Reduction was more significant in FUs with higher SDI, suggesting that the effect of health policies was heterogeneous. Moreover, HSBP has become the main risk factor for death in Brazil, mainly due to population aging

Variations and particularities in cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil and Brazilian states in 1990 and 2015 : estimates from the Global Burden of Disease

Objetivo: Analisar as variações e os diferenciais da mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares (DCV) no Brasil e em seus estados, em 1990 e 2015. Métodos: Foram utilizados os dados de mortalidade compilados pelo Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015, obtidos da base de dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde. Foram realizadas a correção do sub-registro de óbitos e a reclassificação dos códigos garbage por meio de algoritmos específicos. As causas cardiovasculares foram subdivididas em 10 causas específicas. As taxas de mortalidade — dos anos 1990 e 2015 — foram padronizadas pela idade, de acordo com o sexo e o estado brasileiro. Resultados: A taxa de mortalidade por DCV padronizada por idade caiu de 429,5 (1990) para 256,0 (2015) a cada 100 mil habitantes (40,4%). A redução proporcional foi semelhante em ambos os sexos, mas as taxas em homens são substancialmente mais altas do que nas mulheres. A redução da taxa padronizada por idade foi mais acentuada para a doença cardíaca reumática (44,5%), cardiopatia isquêmica (43,9%) e doença cerebrovascular (46,0%). A queda na mortalidade diferiu marcadamente entre os estados, sendo mais acentuada nos estados das regiões Sudeste e Sul do país e no Distrito Federal, e atenuada nos estados do Norte e Nordeste. Conclusão: A mortalidade por DCV padronizada por idade reduziu no Brasil nas últimas décadas, porém de forma heterogênea entre os estados e para diferentes causas específicas. Considerando a magnitude da carga de doença e o envelhecimento da população brasileira, as políticas de enfrentamento das DCV devem ser priorizadas.Objective: To analyze variations and particularities in mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Brazil and in Brazilian states, in 1990 and 2015. Methods: We used data compiled from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015, obtained from the database of the Mortality Information System (SIM) of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Correction of the sub-registry of deaths and reclassification of the garbage codes were performed using specific algorithms. The cardiovascular causes were subdivided into 10 specific causes. Age-standardized CVD mortality rates — in 1990 and 2015 — were analyzed according to sex and Brazilian state. Results: Age-standardized CVD mortality rate decreased from 429.5 (1990) to 256.0 (2015) per 100,000 inhabitants (40.4%). The proportional decrease was similar in both sexes, but death rates in males were substantially higher. The reduction of age-standardized mortality rate was more significant for rheumatic heart disease (44.5%), ischemic cardiopathy (43.9%), and cerebrovascular disease (46.0%). The decline in mortality was markedly different across states, being more pronounced in those of the southeastern and southern regions and the Federal District, and more modest in most states in the north and northeast regions. Conclusion: Agestandardized CVD mortality has declined in Brazil in recent decades, but in a heterogeneous way across states and for different specific causes. Considering the burden magnitude and the Brazilian population aging, policies to prevent and manage CVD should continue to be prioritized

The Rule of Law is Dead! Long Live the Rule of Law!

Polls show that a significant proportion of the public considers judges to be political. This result holds whether Americans are asked about Supreme Court justices, federal judges, state judges, or judges in general. At the same time, a large majority of the public also believes that judges are fair and impartial arbiters, and this belief also applies across the board. In this paper, I consider what this half-law-half-politics understanding of the courts means for judicial legitimacy and the public confidence on which that legitimacy rests. Drawing on the Legal Realists, and particularly on the work of Thurman Arnold, I argue against the notion that the contradictory views must be resolved in order for judicial legitimacy to remain intact. A rule of law built on contending legal and political beliefs is not necessarily fair or just. But it can be stable. At least in the context of law and courts, a house divided may stand