Predictors of mortality in HIV-associated hospitalizations in Portugal: a hierarchical survival model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The beneficial effects of highly active antiretroviral therapy, increasing survival and the prevention of AIDS defining illness development are well established. However, the annual Portuguese hospital mortality is still higher than expected. It is crucial to understand the hospitalization behaviour to better allocate resources. This study investigates the predictors of mortality in HIV associated hospitalizations in Portugal through a hierarchical survival model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study population consists of 12,078 adult discharges from patients with HIV infection diagnosis attended at Portuguese hospitals from 2005–2007 that were registered on the diagnosis-related groups' database.</p> <p>We used discharge and hospital level variables to develop a hierarchical model. The discharge level variables were: age, gender, type of admission, type of diagnoses-related group, related HIV complication, the region of the patient's residence, the number of diagnoses and procedures, the Euclidean distance from hospital to the centroid of the patient's ward, and if patient lived in the hospital's catchment area. The hospital characteristics include size and hospital classification according to the National Health System. Kaplan-Meier plots were used to examine differences in survival curves. Cox proportional hazard models with frailty were applied to identify independent predictors of hospital mortality and to calculate hazard ratios (HR).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Cox proportional model with frailty showed that male gender, older patient, great number of diagnoses and pneumonia increased the hazard of HIV related hospital mortality. On the other hand tuberculosis was associated with a reduced risk of death. Central hospital discharge also presents less risk of mortality.</p> <p>The frailty variance was small but statistically significant, indicating hazard ratio heterogeneity among hospitals that varied between 0.67 and 1.34, and resulted in two hospitals with HR different from the average risk.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The frailty model suggests that there are unmeasured factors affecting mortality in HIV associated hospitalizations. Consequently, for healthcare policy purposes, hospitals should not all be treated in an equal manner.</p

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Abstract P1-01-03: The Impact of Comorbid HIV infection on Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Chemotherapy Relative Dose Intensity in South African Breast Cancer Patients

Abstract Introduction In the South African Breast Cancer and HIV Outcomes (SABCHO) study, early-stage breast cancer patients living with HIV, compared to their HIV-negative counterparts, demonstrated higher overall mortality and lower rates of pathologic complete response if treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. We aimed to determine if comorbid HIV also impacted receipt of timely and complete neoadjuvant and adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods We retrospectively identified Black, stage I-III SABCHO participants diagnosed with breast cancer from June 2015 to July 2019 and who received at least 2 doses of neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy at either Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital (Gauteng) or Grey’s Hospital (KwaZulu-Natal). Data on the originally prescribed chemotherapy regimen and the dose and timing of all received chemotherapy was extracted from patients’ medical records, as well as values from all complete blood counts and metabolic panels performed during treatment. Relative dose intensity (RDI) was calculated for each agent in the prescribed regimen with the mean RDI of all agents representing the RDI of the full regimen. We assessed for associations between full regimen RDI and HIV status using a multivariable linear regression model that included demographic and clinical covariates also shown to impact RDI. We also compared rates of myelosuppression, alkaline phosphatase elevation, and creatinine elevation using linear regression. Using previously collected survival data, we compared overall mortality based on overall RDI above or below 0.85. Results We analyzed data from 325 eligible subjects, 166 of whom were living with HIV. No differences based on HIV status were appreciated in the prescribed chemotherapy regimens. For women without HIV median RDI was 0.87 (interquartile range (IQR) 0.77-0.94) and, in those living with HIV, it was 0.89 (IQR 0.77-0.95). HIV status showed no significant association with RDI on multivariable analysis, and the only patient characteristics associated with RDI were estrogen/progesterone receptor (ER/PR) and HER2 status. Patients living with HIV experienced more CTCAE v5.0 grade 3+ anemia and leukopenia than those without HIV (anemia: 10.8% vs 1.9%, p=0.001; leukopenia: 8.4% vs 1.9%, p=0.008) and were more likely to receive at least one dose of filgrastim (24.7% vs 10.7%, p=0.001). Receipt of RDI greater or less than 0.85 did not predict overall mortality in the full cohort or HIV status subgroups. A trend towards improved survival with RDI greater than 0.85 was seen among the 69 participants with ER/PR negative disease (hazard ratio: 0.60, 95% confidence interval: 0.30-1.21, p = 0.15). Conclusions Neoadjuvant and adjuvant chemotherapy RDI did not differ by HIV status among women in the SABCHO study, although women living with HIV experienced more myelotoxicity during treatment. Efforts to reduce chemotherapy dose reduction and delays should target all South African breast cancer patients. Citation Format: Daniel S. O’Neil, Oluwatosin A Ayeni, Hayley A. Farrow Woolridge, Wenlong Carl Chen, Georgia Demetriou, Ines Buccimazza, Sharon Cacala, Maureen Joffe, Michael Antoni, Gilberto Lopes, Yoanna Pumpalova, Witness Mapanga, Judith S. Jacobson, Katherine D. Crew, Alfred I. Neugut, Paul Ruff, Herbert Cubasch. The Impact of Comorbid HIV infection on Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Chemotherapy Relative Dose Intensity in South African Breast Cancer Patients [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr P1-01-03

The impact of HIV infection on overall survival among women with stage IV breast cancer in South Africa

6559 Background: Advanced stage at breast cancer (BC) diagnosis is common in sub-Saharan Africa. In public hospitals across South Africa (SA), 10-15% of women present with metastatic BC, compared to 20 overall). Receipt of systemic anti-cancer therapy did not differ by HIV status (80.9% treated overall) and most women were treated with anthracycline (55.5%). HIV status was not associated with OS (Hazard Ratio (HR)=1.13, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.89-1.44) (Table). In an exploratory subgroup analysis, WLWH and hormone receptor-negative BC had shorter OS compared to HIV-negative women (1-year OS: 27.1% vs. 48.8%, p=0.003; HR=1.94, 95% CI=1.27-2.94), which was not observed for hormone receptor-positive BC. Results were unchanged when analysis was restricted to black women only. Conclusions: HIV status was not associated with worse OS in women with stage IV BC in SA and cannot account for the poor survival in our cohort. Subgroup analysis revealed that WLWH with hormone receptor-negative BC had worse OS; this differential effect of HIV on BC survival by hormone receptor status is a novel finding that warrants further investigation.[Table: see text

Impact of HIV infection on survival among women with stage I-III breast cancer: Results from the South African breast cancer and HIV outcomes study

In some countries of sub-Saharan Africa, the prevalence of HIV exceeds 20%; in South Africa, 20.4% of people are living with HIV. We examined the impact of HIV infection on the overall survival (OS) of women with nonmetastatic breast cancer (BC) enrolled in the South African Breast Cancer and HIV Outcomes (SABCHO) study. We recruited women with newly diagnosed BC at six public hospitals from 1 July 2015 to 30 June 2019. Among women with stages I-III BC, we compared those with and without HIV infection on sociodemographic, clinical, and treatment factors. We analyzed the impact of HIV on OS using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Of 2367 women with stages I-III BC, 499 (21.1%) had HIV and 1868 (78.9%) did not. With a median follow-up of 29 months, 2-year OS was poorer among women living with HIV (WLWH) than among HIV-uninfected women (72.4% vs 80.1%, P = 45 years and = 50 viral load copies/mL had poorer survival than HIV-uninfected BC patients [aHR: 1.35 (1.09-1.66) and 1.54 (1.20-2.00), respectively], as did WLWH who had >= 200 CD4+ cells/mL at diagnosis [aHR: 1.39 (1.15-1.67)]. Because receipt of antiretroviral therapy has become widespread, WLWH is surviving long enough to develop BC; more research is needed on the causes of their poor survival

Multimorbidity and overall survival among women with breast cancer: results from the South African Breast Cancer and HIV Outcomes Study (vol 25, 7, 2023)

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer survival in South Africa is low, but when diagnosed with breast cancer, many women in South Africa also have other chronic conditions. We investigated the impact of multimorbidity (≥ 2 other chronic conditions) on overall survival among women with breast cancer in South Africa. METHODS: Between 1 July 2015 and 31 December 2019, we enrolled women newly diagnosed with breast cancer at six public hospitals participating in the South African Breast Cancer and HIV Outcomes (SABCHO) Study. We examined seven chronic conditions (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, HIV, cerebrovascular diseases (CVD), asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis), and we compared socio-demographic, clinical, and treatment factors between patients with and without each condition, and with and without multimorbidity. We investigated the association of multimorbidity with overall survival using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Of 3,261 women included in the analysis, 45% had multimorbidity; obesity (53%), hypertension (41%), HIV (22%), and diabetes (13%) were the most common individual conditions. Women with multimorbidity had poorer overall survival at 3 years than women without multimorbidity in both the full cohort (60.8% vs. 64.3%, p = 0.036) and stage groups: stages I–II, 80.7% vs. 86.3% (p = 0.005), and stage III, 53.0% vs. 59.4% (p = 0.024). In an adjusted model, women with diabetes (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.20, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03–1.41), CVD (HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.17–1.76), HIV (HR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.06–1.38), obesity + HIV (HR = 1.24 95% CI = 1.04–1.48), and multimorbidity (HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.13–1.40) had poorer overall survival than women without these conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Irrespective of the stage, multimorbidity at breast cancer diagnosis was an important prognostic factor for survival in our SABCHO cohort. The high prevalence of multimorbidity in our cohort calls for more comprehensive care to improve outcomes for South African women with breast cancer. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13058-023-01603-w

HIV Testing and Epidemiology in a Hospital-Based Surgical Cohort in Malawi

BACKGROUND: Despite the high prevalence of HIV in adults (11 %) in Malawi, testing among surgical patients is not routine. We examined the feasibility of universal opt-out HIV testing and counseling (HTC) on the surgical wards of Kamuzu Central Hospital in Lilongwe, Malawi, and sought to further delineate the role of HIV in surgical presentation and outcome. METHODS: We reviewed HTC and surgical admission records from May to October 2011 and compared these data to data collected prospectively on patients admitted from November 2011 through April 2012, after universal HTC implementation. RESULTS: Prior to universal HTC, 270 of the 2,606 (10.4 %) surgical admissions were tested; 13 % were HIV-infected. After universal HTC implementation, HTC counselors reviewed 1,961 of the 2,488 admissions (79 %): 310 (16 %) had known status (157 seropositive, 153 seronegative) and 1,651 had unknown status (81 %). Among those with unknown status, 97 % (1,598, of 64 % of all admissions) accepted testing, of whom 9 % were found to be HIV-infected. Patients with longer lengths of stay (LOS) (mean = 11 vs. 5 days, p <0.01) and those who underwent surgical intervention (odds ratio [OR] 2.5; confidence interval [CI] 2.0–3.1) were more likely to have a known status on discharge. HIV was more prevalence in patients with infection and genital/anal warts or ulcers and lower in trauma patients. HIV-positive patients received less surgical intervention (OR 0.69; CI 0.52–0.90), but there was no association between HIV status and length of stay or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Universal opt-out HTC on the surgical wards was well accepted and increased the proportion of patients tested. High HIV prevalence in this setting merits implementation of universal HTC

Use of failure-to-rescue to identify international variation in postoperative care in low-, middle- and high-income countries: A 7-day cohort study of elective surgery

The incidence and impact of postoperative complications are poorly described. Failure-to-rescue, the rate of death following complications, is an important quality measure for perioperative care but has not been investigated across multiple health care systems. Methods. We analysed data collected during the International Surgical Outcomes Study, an international 7-day cohort study of adults undergoing elective inpatient surgery. Hospitals were ranked by quintiles according to surgical procedural volume (Q1 lowest to Q5 highest). For each quintile we assessed in-hospital complications rates, mortality, and failure-to-rescue. We repeated this analysis ranking hospitals by risk-adjusted complication rates (Q1 lowest to Q5 highest). Results. A total of 44 814 patients from 474 hospitals in 27 low-, middle-, and high-income countries were available for analysis. Of these, 7508 (17%) developed one or more postoperative complication, with 207 deaths in hospital (0.5%), giving an overall failure-to-rescue rate of 2.8%. When hospitals were ranked in quintiles by procedural volume, we identified a threefold variation in mortality (Q1: 0.6% vs Q5: 0.2%) and a two-fold variation in failure-to-rescue (Q1: 3.6% vs Q5: 1.7%). Ranking hospitals in quintiles by risk-adjusted complication rate further confirmed the presence of important variations in failureto- rescue, indicating differences between hospitals in the risk of death among patients after they develop complications. Conclusions. Comparison of failure-to-rescue rates across health care systems suggests the presence of preventable postoperative deaths. Using such metrics, developing nations could benefit from a data-driven approach to quality improvement, which has proved effective in high-income countries