Assessing Tuberculosis Case Fatality Ratio: A Meta-Analysis

Background: Recently, the tuberculosis (TB) Task Force Impact Measurement acknowledged the need to review the assumptions underlying the TB mortality estimates published annually by the World Health Organization (WHO). TB mortality is indirectly measured by multiplying estimated TB incidence with estimated case fatality ratio (CFR). We conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the TB case fatality ratio in TB patients having initiated TB treatment. Methods: We searched for eligible studies in the PubMed and Embase databases through March 4(th) 2011 and by reference listing of relevant review articles. Main analyses included the estimation of the pooled percentages of: a) TB patients dying due to TB after having initiated TB treatment and b) TB patients dying during TB treatment. Pooled percentages were estimated using random effects regression models on the combined patient population from all studies. Main Results: We identified 69 relevant studies of which 22 provided data on mortality due to TB and 59 provided data on mortality during TB treatment. Among HIV infected persons the pooled percentage of TB patients dying due to TB was 9.2% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.7%-14.7%) and among HIV uninfected persons 3.0% (95% CI: 21.2%-7.4%) based on the results of eight and three studies respectively providing data for this analyses. The pooled percentage of TB patients dying during TB treatment was 18.8% (95% CI: 14.8%-22.8%) among HIV infected patients and 3.5% (95% CI: 2.0%-4.92%) among HIV uninfected patients based on the results of 27 and 19 studies respectively. Conclusion: The results of the literature review are useful in generating prior distributions of CFR in countries with vital registration systems and have contributed towards revised estimates of TB mortality This literature review did not provide us with all data needed for a valid estimation of TB CFR in TB patients initiating TB treatmen

The burden and treatment of HIV in tuberculosis patients in Papua Province, Indonesia: a prospective observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>New diagnoses of tuberculosis (TB) present important opportunities to detect and treat HIV. Rates of HIV and TB in Indonesia's easternmost Papua Province exceed national figures, but data on co-infection rates and outcomes are lacking. We aimed to measure TB-HIV co-infection rates, examine longitudinal trends, compare management with World Health Organisation (WHO) recommendations, and document progress and outcome.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Adults with newly-diagnosed smear-positive pulmonary TB managed at the Timika TB clinic, Papua Province, were offered voluntary counselling and testing for HIV in accordance with Indonesian National Guidelines, using a point-of-care antibody test. Positive tests were confirmed with 2 further rapid tests. Study participants were assessed using clinical, bacteriological, functional and radiological measures and followed up for 6 months.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 162 participants, HIV status was determined in 138 (85.2%), of whom 18 (13.0%) were HIV+. Indigenous Papuans were significantly more likely to be HIV+ than Non-Papuans (Odds Ratio [OR] 4.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-14.23). HIV prevalence among people with TB was significantly higher than during a 2003-4 survey at the same TB clinic, and substantially higher than the Indonesian national estimate of 3%. Compared with HIV- study participants, those with TB-HIV co-infection had significantly lower exercise tolerance (median difference in 6-minute walk test: 25 m, p = 0.04), haemoglobin (mean difference: 1.3 g/dL, p = 0.002), and likelihood of cavitary disease (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.12-1.01), and increased occurrence of pleural effusion (OR 3.60, 95% CI 1.70-7.58), higher rates of hospitalisation or death (OR 11.80, 95% CI 1.82-76.43), but no difference in the likelihood of successful 6-month treatment outcome. Adherence to WHO guidelines was limited by the absence of integration of TB and HIV services, specifically, with no on-site ART prescriber available. Only six people had CD4+ T-cell counts recorded, 11 were prescribed co-trimoxazole and 4 received ART before, during or after TB treatment, despite ART being indicated in 14 according to 2006 WHO guidelines.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>TB-HIV co-infection in southern Papua, Indonesia, is a serious emerging problem especially among the Indigenous population, and has risen rapidly in the last 5 years. Major efforts are required to incorporate new WHO recommendations on TB-HIV management into national guidelines, and support their implementation in community settings.</p

Natural History of Tuberculosis: Duration and Fatality of Untreated Pulmonary Tuberculosis in HIV Negative Patients: A Systematic Review

Background The prognosis, specifically the case fatality and duration, of untreated tuberculosis is important as many patients are not correctly diagnosed and therefore receive inadequate or no treatment. Furthermore, duration and case fatality of tuberculosis are key parameters in interpreting epidemiological data. Methodology and Principal Findings To estimate the duration and case fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients we reviewed studies from the pre-chemotherapy era. Untreated smear-positive tuberculosis among HIV negative individuals has a 10-year case fatality variously reported between 53% and 86%, with a weighted mean of 70%. Ten-year case fatality of culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis was nowhere reported directly but can be indirectly estimated to be approximately 20%. The duration of tuberculosis from onset to cure or death is approximately 3 years and appears to be similar for smear-positive and smear-negative tuberculosis. Conclusions Current models of untreated tuberculosis that assume a total duration of 2 years until self-cure or death underestimate the duration of disease by about one year, but their case fatality estimates of 70% for smear-positive and 20% for culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis appear to be satisfactory

Long-term outcome in patients registered with tuberculosis in Zomba, Malawi: mortality at 7 years according to initial HIV status and type of TB.

SETTING: Zomba Central Hospital, Malawi. OBJECTIVES: To determine the outcome of all adult patients who were registered for tuberculosis (TB) treatment 7 years previously according to initial human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status and type of TB. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of adult patients registered for TB treatment between July and December 1995. Follow-up at patients' homes was performed at the end of treatment, at 32 months and at 84 months (7 years) from the time of TB registration. FINDINGS: Eight hundred and twenty-seven TB patients were registered: 793 had concordant HIV test results, of whom 612 (77%) were HIV-positive. At 7 years, 136 (17%) patients were alive, 539 (65%) had died and 152 (18%) were lost to follow-up. The death rate for all TB patients was 23.7 per 100 person-years of observation. HIV-positive patients had higher death rates than HIV-negative patients (hazard ratio [HR] 2.2, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 1.7-2.8). Death rates in smear-negative pulmonary TB patients (HR 2.1, 95%CI 1.7-2.6) and in patients with extra-pulmonary TB (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.0) were higher than in patients with smear-positive PTB. CONCLUSIONS: There was a high mortality rate in TB patients during and after anti-tuberculosis treatment. Adjunctive treatments to reduce death rates are urgently needed