Selecting the best performing fire weather indices for Austrian ecoregions

The interpretation and communication of fire danger warning levels based on fire weather index values are critical for fire management activities. A number of different indices have been developed for various environmental conditions, and many of them are currently applied in operational warning systems. To select an appropriate combination of such indices to work in different ecoregions in mountainous, hilly and flat terrain is challenging. This study analyses the performance of a total of 22 fire weather indices and two raw meteorological variables to predict wildfire occurrence for different ecological regions of Austria with respect to the different characteristics in climate and fire regimes. A median-based linear model was built based on percentile results on fire days and non-fire days to get quantifiable measures of index performance using slope and intercept of an index on fire days. We highlight the finding that one single index is not optimal for all Austrian regions in both summer and winter fire seasons. The summer season (May-November) shows that the Canadian build-up index, the Keetch Byram Drought Index and the mean daily temperature have the best performance; in the winter season (December-April), the M68dwd is the best performing index. It is shown that the index performance on fire days where larger fires appeared is better and that the uncertainties related to the location of the meteorological station can influence the overall results. A proposal for the selection of the best performing fire weather indices for each Austrian ecoregion is made

Comparative Study of Different Data Mining Techniques in Predicting Forest Fire in Lebanon and Mediterranean

International audienceForest fire is one of the most complex phenomena which can cause great economic losses and make eco-environment seriously disordered. Forest fire has caused the loss of many green acres in Lebanon due to the lack of governmental policies in order to mange forest fires. This paper presents an overview of the exciting applications of data mining techniques in different fields. This study aims to predict forest fires in North Lebanon in order to reduce fire occurrence based on 4 meteorological parameters (Temperature, Humidity, Precipitation and Wind speed) using different data mining techniques: Neural networks, decision tree (J48), fuzzy logic, support vector machine (SVM) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). A comparative study is then made to find the best performing technique tending to manage such a natural crisis. Decision tree (J48) recorded the best accuracy in forest fire prediction (97.8%)