Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Traveller screening is being used to limit further spread of COVID-19 following its recent emergence, and symptom screening has become a ubiquitous tool in the global response. Previously, we developed a mathematical model to understand factors governing the effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent spread of emerging pathogens (Gostic et al., 2015). Here, we estimate the impact of different screening programs given current knowledge of key COVID-19 life history and epidemiological parameters. Even under best-case assumptions, we estimate that screening will miss more than half of infected people. Breaking down the factors leading to screening successes and failures, we find that most cases missed by screening are fundamentally undetectable, because they have not yet developed symptoms and are unaware they were exposed. Our work underscores the need for measures to limit transmission by individuals who become ill after being missed by a screening program. These findings can support evidence-based policy to combat the spread of COVID-19, and prospective planning to mitigate future emerging pathogens

Social preference weights for treatments in Fabry disease in the UK : a discrete choice experiment

Abstract Objective: Fabry disease is a rare inherited lysosomal storage disorder caused by deficiency of α-galactosidase A. Effective enzyme replacement therapies are available that are administered intravenously. However, a new oral treatment is being developed as an alternative option for patients with amenable mutations. This study was designed to understand the value that people place on the different features of treatments for Fabry disease. Research design and methods: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was designed to assess the importance of different aspects of treatments for Fabry disease. The attributes included overall survival, mode of administration, treatment related reactions, treatment related headaches and risk of antibody formation. Attributes were combined using a published orthogonal array into choice sets. A research panel was used to survey the UK general public. The mixed logit model was used to estimate strength of preference for the attributes and marginal rates of substitution (MRSs). Disutilities were estimated from the DCE data for changes in each attribute. Results: The sample (n = 506) was broadly representative of UK demographics. The logit model revealed that all attributes were significant predictors of choice. Participants were significantly more likely to choose a treatment which meant an increase in their life expectancy by 1 year (odds ratio = 1.574; 95% CI = 1.504–1.647) and significantly less likely to choose self-administered intravenous (IV) treatment compared to an every other day tablet (OR = 0.426 95% CI = 0.384–0.474). Estimated disutilities were −0.0543 (self-administered infusion), treatment related headaches 12 times a year (−0.0361) and infusion reactions six times a year (−0.0202). Conclusions: The survey revealed a significant preference for oral treatment compared with IV even in the context of a treatment that can extend overall survival. MRSs were used as a basis for estimating disutilities associated with changes in attribute levels which could be used to weight QALYs. It is possible that other important treatment attributes are missing from this research which may have provided further insights. It would also be useful to extend this research to include Fabry disease patients so their preferences can be assessed against the societal perspective

A Copine family member, Cpne8, is a candidate quantitative trait gene for prion disease incubation time in mouse

Prion disease incubation time in mice is determined by many factors including genetic background. The prion gene itself plays a major role in incubation time; however, other genes are also known to be important. Whilst quantitative trait loci (QTL) studies have identified multiple loci across the genome, these regions are often large, and with the exception of Hectd2 on Mmu19, no quantitative trait genes or nucleotides for prion disease incubation time have been demonstrated. In this study, we use the Northport heterogeneous stock of mice to reduce the size of a previously identified QTL on Mmu15 from approximately 25 to 1.2 cM. We further characterised the genes in this region and identify Cpne8, a member of the copine family, as the most promising candidate gene. We also show that Cpne8 mRNA is upregulated at the terminal stage of disease, supporting a role in prion disease. Applying these techniques to other loci will facilitate the identification of key pathways in prion disease pathogenesis

Shadoo (Sprn) and prion disease incubation time in mice

Prion diseases are transmissible neurodegenerative disorders of mammalian species and include scrapie, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). The prion protein (PrP) plays a key role in the disease, with coding polymorphism in both human and mouse influencing disease susceptibility and incubation time, respectively. Other genes are also thought to be important and a plausible candidate is Sprn, which encodes the PrP-like protein Shadoo (Sho). Sho is expressed in the adult central nervous system and exhibits neuroprotective activity reminiscent of PrP in an in vitro assay. To investigate the role of Sprn in prion disease incubation time we sequenced the open reading frame (ORF) in a diverse panel of mice and saw little variation except in strains derived from wild-trapped mice. Sequencing the untranslated regions revealed polymorphisms that allowed us to carry out an association study of incubation period in the Northport heterogeneous stock of mice inoculated with Chandler/RML prions. We also examined the expression level of Sprn mRNA in the brains of normal and prion-infected mice and saw no correlation with either genotype or incubation time. We therefore conclude that Sprn does not play a major role in prion disease incubation time in these strains of mice

Acid treatment biasing to C/N, δ13C and δ15N of organic matter: A Molecular insight

(DIPPI-C) - Development of Isotopic Proxies for Palaeoenvironmental Interpretation: a Carbon PerspectiveIt is known that acid treatment methods employed to remove inorganic carbon (IC) from sample material prior to analysis for C/N, δ13C and δ15N cause non-linear, unpredictable biasing to the organic matter (OM) fraction. Consequently, measured C/N, δ13C and δ15N have an uncertainty much greater than instrument precision: uncertainties for C/N are reported in the range of 1 – 100, for δ13C in the range of 0.2 – 6.8 ‰ and for δ15N in the range of 0.2 – 1.5 ‰, in both modern and palaeo environmental materials. Brodie et al (2011) extended this investigation to a down-core lake sedimentary archive (Lake Tianyang, South China) and noted the potential for uncertainties to preclude “common” interpretations of the data (e.g., C/N values a s a n OM p rovenance tool; δ 13C as a proxy for changes in C3 and C4 vegetation). It is evident that the size of uncertainty between sample horizons varies considerably implying a differential relative reaction to acid treatment down-core (i.e., as the type, relative amount and physical state of organic and inorganic components change). We are now investigating this biasing at the molecular level by employing 13C-NMR and GCIRMS techniques on a suite of modern and palaeo environmental materials and on a lake sedimentary archive. This will provide an important insight into the effect of acid treatment on organic compounds (i.e. removal from the sample, breakdown of compounds and partial removal) and associated isotopic fractionation. From an improved understanding of the type of compounds most susceptible to alteration/removal during the acid treatment processes it will be possible to consider refinements to the acid pre-treatment process and provide information on the relative down-core changes in those compounds susceptible to change (which we may be able to glean environmental information from).postprintThe 1st DIPPI-C Workshop, Durham, UK., 8-10 May 2012. In Abstract Bok of the 1st DIPPI-C Workshop, 2012, p. 1

HECTD2 Is Associated with Susceptibility to Mouse and Human Prion Disease

Prion diseases are fatal transmissible neurodegenerative disorders, which include Scrapie, Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD), and kuru. They are characterised by a prolonged clinically silent incubation period, variation in which is determined by many factors, including genetic background. We have used a heterogeneous stock of mice to identify Hectd2, an E3 ubiquitin ligase, as a quantitative trait gene for prion disease incubation time in mice. Further, we report an association between HECTD2 haplotypes and susceptibility to the acquired human prion diseases, vCJD and kuru. We report a genotype-associated differential expression of Hectd2 mRNA in mouse brains and human lymphocytes and a significant up-regulation of transcript in mice at the terminal stage of prion disease. Although the substrate of HECTD2 is unknown, these data highlight the importance of proteosome-directed protein degradation in neurodegeneration. This is the first demonstration of a mouse quantitative trait gene that also influences susceptibility to human prion diseases. Characterisation of such genes is key to understanding human risk and the molecular basis of incubation periods

The epidemiology of injuries across the weight-training sports

Background: Weight-training sports, including weightlifting, powerlifting, bodybuilding, strongman, Highland Games, and CrossFit, are weight-training sports that have separate divisions for males and females of a variety of ages, competitive standards, and bodyweight classes. These sports may be considered dangerous because of the heavy loads commonly used in training and competition. Objectives: Our objective was to systematically review the injury epidemiology of these weight-training sports, and, where possible, gain some insight into whether this may be affected by age, sex, competitive standard, and bodyweight class. Methods: We performed an electronic search using PubMed, SPORTDiscus, CINAHL, and Embase for injury epidemiology studies involving competitive athletes in these weight-training sports. Eligible studies included peer-reviewed journal articles only, with no limit placed on date or language of publication. We assessed the risk of bias in all studies using an adaption of the musculoskeletal injury review method. Results: Only five of the 20 eligible studies had a risk of bias score ≥75 %, meaning the risk of bias in these five studies was considered low. While 14 of the studies had sample sizes >100 participants, only four studies utilized a prospective design. Bodybuilding had the lowest injury rates (0.12–0.7 injuries per lifter per year; 0.24–1 injury per 1000 h), with strongman (4.5–6.1 injuries per 1000 h) and Highland Games (7.5 injuries per 1000 h) reporting the highest rates. The shoulder, lower back, knee, elbow, and wrist/hand were generally the most commonly injured anatomical locations; strains, tendinitis, and sprains were the most common injury type. Very few significant differences in any of the injury outcomes were observed as a function of age, sex, competitive standard, or bodyweight class. Conclusion: While the majority of the research we reviewed utilized retrospective designs, the weight-training sports appear to have relatively low rates of injury compared with common team sports. Future weight-training sport injury epidemiology research needs to be improved, particularly in terms of the use of prospective designs, diagnosis of injury, and changes in risk exposure