Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990–2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future

Socio-economic status, cultural diversity and the aspirations of secondary students in the Western Suburbs of Melbourne, Australia

Using data from a recent survey of Australian secondary students, we find that those from higher socio-economic backgrounds are more likely to aspire to attend university. The same can be said for students who do not speak English at home. We find that students with an ethnic minority background are more likely to perceive higher levels of support from parents. However, we find that all students believe they receive encouragement from their parents to do well at school (rather than discouragement or disinterest), and that there is little difference in the level of importance placed on the views of parents between students from English and non-English speaking background. While interest in university education is strong across all socio-economic groups, particularly for students who do not speak English at home, there is a considerable gap between aspirations and enrolment levels. We suggest that this ‘aspirations gap’ is larger for students from low socio-economic backgrounds. This analysis also supports growing evidence that the postcode methodology for allocating socio-economic status to individuals is unreliable

The impact of two Los Angeles County Teen Courts on youth recidivism: comparing two informal probation programs

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to examine the impact of two Teen Courts operating in Los Angeles County, a juvenile justice system diversion program in which youth are judged by their peers and given restorative sentences to complete during a period of supervision. METHODS: A quasi-experimental design was used to compare youth who participated in Teen Court (n=112) to youth who participated in another diversion program administered by the Probation Department (the 654 Contract program) (n=194). Administrative data were abstracted from Probation records for all youth who participated in these programs between January 1, 2012 and June 20, 2014. Logistic and survival models were used to examine differences in recidivism - measured as whether the minor had any subsequent arrest or arrests for which the charge was filed. RESULTS: Comparison group participants had higher rates of recidivism than Teen Court participants, after controlling for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and risk level. While the magnitude of the program effects were fairly consistent across model specifications (odd ratios comparing Teen Court [referent] to school-based 654 Contract ranging from 1.95 to 3.07, hazard ratios ranging from 1.62 to 2.27), differences were not statistically significant in all scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: While this study provides modest support for the positive impact of Teen Court, additional research is needed to better understand how juvenile diversion programs can improve youth outcomes