Seasonal variations and other changes in the geographical distributions of different cytospecies of the Simulium damnosum complex (Diptera: Simuliidae) in Togo and Benin

Simulium damnosum s.l., the most important vector of onchocerciasis in Africa, is a complex of sibling species described on the basis of differences in their larval polytene chromosomes. These (cyto) species differ in their geographical distributions, ecologies and epidemiological roles. In Togo and Benin, distributional changes have been recorded as a consequence of vector control and environmental changes (e.g. creation of dams, deforestation), with potential epidemiological consequences. We review the distribution of cytospecies in Togo and Benin and report changes observed from 1975 to 2018. The elimination of the Djodji form of S. sanctipauli in south-western Togo in 1988 seems to have had no long-term effects on the distribution of the other cytospecies, despite an initial surge by S. yahense. Although we report a general tendency for long-term stability in most cytospecies’ distributions, we also assess how the cytospecies’ geographical distributions have fluctuated and how they vary with the seasons. In addition to seasonal expansions of geographical ranges by all species except S. yahense, there are seasonal variations in the relative abundances of cytospecies within a year. In the lower Mono river, the Beffa form of S. soubrense predominates in the dry season but is replaced as the dominant taxon in the rainy season by S. damnosum s.str. Deforestation was previously implicated in an increase of savanna cytospecies in southern Togo (1975–1997), but our data had little power to support (or refute) suggestions of a continuing increase, partly because of a lack of recent sampling. In contrast, the construction of dams and other environmental changes including climate change seem to be leading to decreases in the populations of S. damnosum s.l. in Togo and Benin. If so, combined with the disappearance of the Djodji form of S. sanctipauli, a potent vector, plus historic vector control actions and community directed treatments with ivermectin, onchocerciasis transmission in Togo and Benin is much reduced compared with the situation in 1975

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: biting and parous rates of host-seeking sibling species of the Simulium damnosum complex

Background: Ghana is renowned for its sibling species diversity of the Simulium damnosum complex, vectors of Onchocerca volvulus. Detailed entomological knowledge becomes a priority as onchocerciasis control policy has shifted from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. To date, understanding of transmission dynamics of O. volvulus has been mainly based on S. damnosum sensu stricto (s.s.) data. We aim to elucidate bionomic features of vector species of importance for onchocerciasis elimination efforts. Methods: We collected S. damnosum sensu lato from seven villages in four Ghanaian regions between 2009 and 2011, using standard vector collection, and human- and cattle-baited tents. Taxa were identified using morphological and molecular techniques. Monthly biting rates (MBR), parous rates and monthly parous biting rates (MPBR) are reported by locality, season, trapping method and hour of collection for each species. Results: S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum were collected at Asubende and Agborlekame, both savannah villages. A range of species was caught in the Volta region (forest-savannah mosaic) and Gyankobaa (forest), with S. squamosum or S. sanctipauli being the predominant species, respectively. In Bosomase (southern forest region) only S. sanctipauli was collected in the 2009 wet season, but in the 2010 dry season S. yahense was also caught. MBRs ranged from 714 bites/person/month at Agborlekame (100% S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum) to 8,586 bites/person/month at Pillar 83/Djodji (98.5% S. squamosum). MBRs were higher in the wet season. In contrast, parous rates were higher in the dry season (41.8% vs. 18.4%), resulting in higher MPBRs in the dry season. Daily host-seeking activity of S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum was bimodal, whilst S. squamosum and S. sanctipauli had unimodal afternoon peaks. Conclusions: The bionomic differences between sibling species of the S. damnosum complex need to be taken into account when designing entomological monitoring protocols for interventions and parameterising mathematical models for onchocerciasis control and elimination

Threshold conditions for curbing COVID-19 with a dynamic zero-case policy derived from 101 outbreaks in China

By 31 May 2022, original/Alpha, Delta and Omicron strains induced 101 outbreaks of COVID-19 in mainland China. Most outbreaks were cleared by combining non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) with vaccines, but continuous virus variations challenged the dynamic zero-case policy (DZCP), posing questions of what are the prerequisites and threshold levels for success? And what are the independent effects of vaccination in each outbreak? Using a modified classic infectious disease dynamic model and an iterative relationship for new infections per day, the effectiveness of vaccines and NPIs was deduced, from which the independent effectiveness of vaccines was derived. There was a negative correlation between vaccination coverage rates and virus transmission. For the Delta strain, a 61.8% increase in the vaccination rate (VR) reduced the control reproduction number (CRN) by about 27%. For the Omicron strain, a 20.43% increase in VR, including booster shots, reduced the CRN by 42.16%. The implementation speed of NPIs against the original/Alpha strain was faster than the virus's transmission speed, and vaccines significantly accelerated the DZCP against the Delta strain. The CRN ([Formula: see text]) during the exponential growth phase and the peak time and intensity of NPIs were key factors affecting a comprehensive theoretical threshold condition for DZCP success, illustrated by contour diagrams for the CRN under different conditions. The DZCP maintained the [Formula: see text] of 101 outbreaks below the safe threshold level, but the strength of NPIs was close to saturation especially for Omicron, and there was little room for improvement. Only by curbing the rise in the early stage and shortening the exponential growth period could clearing be achieved quickly. Strengthening China's vaccine immune barrier can improve China's ability to prevent and control epidemics and provide greater scope for the selection and adjustment of NPIs. Otherwise, there will be rapid rises in infection rates and an extremely high peak and huge pressure on the healthcare system, and a potential increase in excess mortality

Capture of high numbers of Simulium vectors can be achieved with Host Decoy Traps to support data acquisition in the onchocerciasis elimination endgame

Onchocerciasis elimination is within reach in many countries but requires enhanced surveillance of the Simulium vectors of Onchocerca volvulus. Collection of sufficient numbers of adult Simulium to detect infective O. volvulus larvae is hindered by limited sampling tools for these flies. Here, we tested for the first time the Host Decoy Trap (HDT), an exposure free method previously developed for Anopheles vectors of malaria parasites, as a potential sampling tool for adult Simulium. In three replicates of a randomized Latin square experimental design, the HDT was compared to Human Landing Catches (HLC) and the Esperanza Window Trap (EWT). A total of 8,531 adult S. damnosum sensu lato blackflies (S. squamosum group) were found in catches from the three different trapping methods. The HDT (mean catch 533 ± 111) caught significantly more S. squamosum than the EWT (mean catch 9.1 ± 2.2), a nearly 60-fold difference. There was no significant difference between the HLC (mean catch 385.6 ± 80.9) and the HDT. Larvae indistinguishable from those of O. volvulus were dissected from 2.86% of HDT samples (n = 70) and 0.35% of HLC samples (n = 285); a single infective third-stage larvae (L3) was found during dissection of a sample from the HDT. Owing to its very high capture rate, which was comparable to the HLC and significantly greater than EWT, alongside the presence of infected flies in its catch, the HDT represents a potentially valuable new tool for blackfly collection in elimination settings, where thousands of flies are needed for parasite screening

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: Persistence under different control strategies and the role of the simuliid vectors

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) aims at eliminating onchocerciasis by 2020 in selected African countries. Current control focuses on community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI). In Ghana, persistent transmission has been reported despite long-term control. We present spatial and temporal patterns of onchocerciasis transmission in relation to ivermectin treatment history. Methodology/Principal Findings: Host-seeking and ovipositing blackflies were collected from seven villages in four regions of Ghana with 3–24 years of CDTI at the time of sampling. A total of 16,443 flies was analysed for infection; 5,812 (35.3%) were dissected for parity (26.9% parous). Heads and thoraces of 12,196 flies were dissected for Onchocerca spp. and DNA from 11,122 abdomens was amplified using Onchocerca primers. A total of 463 larvae (0.03 larvae/fly) from 97 (0.6%) infected and 62 (0.4%) infective flies was recorded; 258 abdomens (2.3%) were positive for Onchocerca DNA. Infections (all were O. volvulus) were more likely to be detected in ovipositing flies. Transmission occurred, mostly in the wet season, at Gyankobaa and Bosomase, with transmission potentials of, respectively, 86 and 422 L3/person/month after 3 and 6 years of CDTI. The numbers of L3/1,000 parous flies at these villages were over 100times the WHO threshold of one L3/1,000 for transmission control. Vector species influenced transmission parameters. At Asubende, the number of L3/1,000 ovipositing flies (1.4, 95% CI = 0–4) also just exceeded the threshold despite extensive vector control and 24 years of ivermectin distribution, but there were no infective larvae in host-seeking flies. Conclusions/Significance: Despite repeated ivermectin treatment, evidence of O. volvulus transmission was documented in all seven villages and above the WHO threshold in two. Vector species influences transmission through biting and parous rates and vector competence, and should be included in transmission models. Oviposition traps could augment vector collector methods for monitoring and surveillance

Defining the key wintering habitats in the Sahel for declining African-Eurasian migrants using expert assessment

SummaryThe Sahel in West Africa is a major wintering area for many western Palearctic migrants. The breeding populations of many of these have declined over the past 50 years. However, there have been few intensive field studies on migrant ecology in the Sahel and these were generally within a very restricted area. Consequently our knowledge of the distribution of species within this extensive area and the habitat associations of these species is limited. Understanding these habitat associations is essential for the effective conservation management of populations. We brought together a group of experts and consulted a wider group by email to assess the main Sahelian habitat types used by 68 African-Eurasian migrant bird species. Those species that showed strongest declines during 1970–1990 were associated with more open habitats than those newly declining during 1990–2000, when declining species were associated with habitats with more shrubs and trees. Populations of species that winter in the Sahel are generally stable or increasing now as rainfall has increased and is now near the long-term average for the Sahel. Those which use the Sahel only as a staging area are, in many cases, in rapid decline at present.We would like to thank Andy Clements, Paul Donald, Lincoln Fishpool and Mike Mortimore for contributing to the workshop and Peter Jones, Ian Newton, Volker Salewski, Tim Wacher, Eddy Wymenga and Leo Zwarts for useful comments by email on draft habitat importance scores. This study was funded by the Newton Trust and the Cambridge Conservation Initiative Collaborative Fund, supported by Arcadia. WJS is funded by Arcadia.This is the accepted manuscript of a paper published in Bird Conservation International, Volume 24, Issue 04, December 2014, pp 477-491, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0959270913000531, Published online: 24 February 201

Modelling the impact of larviciding on the population dynamics and biting rates of Simulium damnosum (s.l.): implications for vector control as a complementary strategy for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa

Background: In 2012, the World Health Organization set goals for the elimination of onchocerciasis transmission by 2020 in selected African countries. Epidemiological data and mathematical modelling have indicated that elimination may not be achieved with annual ivermectin distribution in all endemic foci. Complementary and alternative treatment strategies (ATS), including vector control, will be necessary. Implementation of vector control will require that the ecology and population dynamics of Simulium damnosum sensu lato be carefully considered. Methods: We adapted our previous SIMuliid POPulation dynamics (SIMPOP) model to explore the impact of larvicidal insecticides on S. damnosum (s.l.) biting rates in different ecological contexts and to identify how frequently and for how long vector control should be continued to sustain substantive reductions in vector biting. SIMPOP was fitted to data from large-scale aerial larviciding trials in savannah sites (Ghana) and small-scale ground larviciding trials in forest areas (Cameroon). The model was validated against independent data from Burkina Faso/Côte d’Ivoire (savannah) and Bioko (forest). Scenario analysis explored the effects of ecological and programmatic factors such as pre-control daily biting rate (DBR) and larviciding scheme design on reductions and resurgences in biting rates. Results: The estimated efficacy of large-scale aerial larviciding in the savannah was greater than that of ground-based larviciding in the forest. Small changes in larvicidal efficacy can have large impacts on intervention success. At 93% larvicidal efficacy (a realistic value based on field trials), 10 consecutive weekly larvicidal treatments would reduce DBRs by 96% (e.g. from 400 to 16 bites/person/day). At 70% efficacy, and for 10 weekly applications, the DBR would decrease by 67% (e.g. from 400 to 132 bites/person/day). Larviciding is more likely to succeed in areas with lower water temperatures and where blackfly species have longer gonotrophic cycles. Conclusions: Focal vector control can reduce vector biting rates in settings where a high larvicidal efficacy can be achieved and an appropriate duration and frequency of larviciding can be ensured. Future work linking SIMPOP with onchocerciasis transmission models will permit evaluation of the impact of combined anti-vectorial and anti-parasitic interventions on accelerating elimination of the disease

Board Ethics and Auditor Choice – International Evidence

2 Board Ethics and Auditor Choice – International Evidence ABSTRACT This study examines whether firms‟ auditor choice relates reflects the strength of board ethics. Using a large sample of firms 132,853 firm year observations from forty-six countries around the globe. and controlling for a number of firm- and country-level factors, we find that firms in countries where “high board ethical values” prevail are more likely to hire a Big 4 auditor. We also find that the relation between board ethical values and auditor choice is mitigated by the firm‟s board size. These results establish an indirect link between board ethics and financial reporting quality through the firm‟s choice of auditor

Potential effects of warmer worms and vectors on onchocerciasis transmission in West Africa

Development times of eggs, larvae and pupae of vectors of onchocerciasis (Simulium spp.) and of Onchocerca volvulus larvae within the adult females of the vectors decrease with increasing temperature. At and above 25C,the parasite could reach its infective stage in less than 7 days when vectors could transmit after only two gonotrophic cycles. After incorporating exponential functions for vector development into a novel blackfly population model, it was predicted that fly numbers in Liberia and Ghana would peak at air temperatures of 29C and 34C, about 3C and 7C above current monthly averages, respectively; parous rates of forest flies (Liberia) would peak at 298C and of savannah flies (Ghana) at 308C. Small temperature increases (less than 28C) might lead to changes in geographical distributions of different vector taxa. When the new model was linked to an existing framework for the population dynamics of onchocerciasis in humans and vectors, transmission rates and worm loads were projected to increase with temperature to at least 338C. By contrast, analyses of field data on forest flies in Liberia and savannah flies in Ghana, in relation to regional climate change predictions, suggested, on the basis of simple regressions, that 13–41% decreases in fly numbers would be expected between the present and before 2040. Further research is needed to reconcile these conflicting conclusions

Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is complex and is developing in different ways according to the country involved. Methods: To identify the key parameters or processes that have the greatest effects on the pandemic and reveal the different progressions of epidemics in different countries, we quantified enhanced control measures and the dynamics of the production and provision of medical resources. We then nested these within a COVID-19 epidemic transmission model, which is parameterized by multi-source data. We obtained rate functions related to the intensity of mitigation measures, the effective reproduction numbers and the timings and durations of runs on medical resources, given differing control measures implemented in various countries. Results: Increased detection rates may induce runs on medical resources and prolong their durations, depending on resource availability. Nevertheless, improving the detection rate can effectively and rapidly reduce the mortality rate, even after runs on medical resources. Combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies and timely improvement of abilities to supplement medical resources are key to effective control of the COVID-19 epidemic. A 50% reduction in comprehensive control measures would have led to the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths exceeding 590,000 and 60,000, respectively, by 27 March 2020 in mainland China. Conclusions: Multiple data sources and cross validation of a COVID-19 epidemic model, coupled with a medical resource logistic model, revealed the key factors that affect epidemic progressions and their outbreak patterns in different countries. These key factors are the type of emergency medical response to avoid runs on medical resources, especially improved detection rates, the ability to promote public health measures, and the synergistic effects of combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies. The proposed model can assist health authorities to predict when they will be most in need of hospital beds and equipment such as ventilators, personal protection equipment, drugs, and staff