A note on the use of sensitivity analysis to explore the potential impact of declining institutional care utilisation on disability prevalence

Many health and disability surveys are conducted using the non-institutionalised population as a sampling frame. Consequently, it is possible that changes in the utilisation of institutional care could account for all or part of any change in the observed prevalence of functional limitation, disability or other health state, based on samples from the non-institutionalised population. Using conditional probability arguments, I present an adjustment formula for computing health state prevalences for the non-institutionalised population under a scenario in which health state prevalences are held constant except for movement into the non-institutionalised population of individuals who would formerly have been in institutional care. By comparing the adjusted prevalence with observed non-institutionalised health state prevalences the contribution of changes in institutionalisation to observed changes in the non-institutionalised health state prevalence can be assessed

Calculation of health expectancies with administrative data for North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany, 1999–2005

Pinheiro JP, Krämer A. Calculation of health expectancies with administrative data for North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany, 1999-2005. Population Health Metrics. 2009;7(1):4.OBJECTIVES: The main objectives of this study were to prove the feasibility of health expectancy analyses with regional administrative health statistics and to explore the utility of the calculated health expectancies in describing the health state of the population living in North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Administrative population and mortality data as well as health data on disability and long-term care provided by public services were used to calculate: a) the life expectancy and b) the health expectancies Severe-Disability-Free Life Expectancy (SDFLE) and Long-Term-Care-Free Life Expectancy (LTCFLE) from 1999 to 2005. Calculations were done using the Sullivan method. RESULTS: SDFLE at birth was 69.9 years (males 66.2 and females 73.2 years) in 1999 and it increased to 71.7 years (males 68.6 and females 74.7 years) in 2005. The proportion of the SDFLE on the total life expectancy at birth was 89.8% (males 88.6 and females 90.8%) in 1999 and 90.7% (males 89.8 and females 91.4%) in 2005.LTCFLE at birth was 75.3 years (males 73.1 and females 77.5 years) in 1999 and it increased to 76.6 years (males 74.7 and females 78.6 years) in 2005. The proportion of the LTCFLE on the total life expectancy at birth was 96.8% (males 97.8 and females 96.1%) in 1999 and 96.8% (males 97.8 and females 96.2%) in 2005. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Both health expectancies indicate an improvement in the quantity as well as in the quality of healthy life for the population living in North Rhine Westphalia and therefore suggest a compression of morbidity from 1999 to 2005. The findings however have several limitations in their sensitivity, since we applied dichotomous valuations to the health states. In addition, the results are restricted to comparisons over time because the morbidity concepts do not allow for comparisons with populations other than the German one. Refined calculations with other summary measures of population health and with health data on other morbidity concepts are therefore reasonable

Adjusting for dependent comorbidity in the calculation of healthy life expectancy

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy – sometimes called health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) – is a form of health expectancy indicator that extends measures of life expectancy to account for the distribution of health states in the population. The World Health Organization has estimated healthy life expectancy for 192 WHO Member States using information from health interview surveys and from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The latter estimates loss of health by cause, age and sex for populations. Summation of prevalent years lived with disability (PYLD) across all causes would result in overestimation of the severity of the population average health state because of comorbidity between conditions. Earlier HALE calculations made adjustments for independent comorbidity in adding PYLD across causes. This paper presents a method for adjusting for dependent comorbidity using available empirical data. METHODS: Data from five large national health surveys were analysed by age and sex to estimate "dependent comorbidity" factors for pairs of conditions. These factors were defined as the ratio of the prevalence of people with both conditions to the product of the two total prevalences for each of the conditions. The resulting dependent comorbidity factors were used for all Member States to adjust for dependent comorbidity in summation of PYLD across all causes and in the calculation of HALE. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out for order effects in the proposed calculation method. RESULTS: There was surprising consistency in the dependent comorbidity factors across the five surveys. The improved estimation of dependent comorbidity resulted in reductions in total PYLD per capita ranging from a few per cent in younger adult ages to around 8% in the oldest age group (80 years and over) in developed countries and up to 15% in the oldest age group in the least developed countries. The effect of the dependent comorbidity adjustment on estimated healthy life expectancies is small for some regions (high income countries, Eastern Europe, Western Pacific) and ranges from an increase of 0.5 to 1.5 years for countries in Latin America, South East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSION: The available evidence suggests that dependent comorbidity is important, and that adjustment for it makes a significant difference to resulting HALE estimates for some regions of the world. Given the data limitations, we recommend a normative adjustment based on the available evidence, and applied consistently across all countries

Global patterns of healthy life expectancy in the year 2002

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy – sometimes called health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) – is a form of health expectancy indicator that extends measures of life expectancy to account for the distribution of health states in the population. The World Health Organization reports on healthy life expectancy for 192 WHO Member States. This paper describes variation in average levels of population health across these countries and by sex for the year 2002. METHODS: Mortality was analysed for 192 countries and disability from 135 causes assessed for 17 regions of the world. Health surveys in 61 countries were analyzed using new methods to improve the comparability of self-report data. RESULTS: Healthy life expectancy at birth ranged from 40 years for males in Africa to over 70 years for females in developed countries in 2002. The equivalent "lost" healthy years ranged from 15% of total life expectancy at birth in Africa to 8–9% in developed countries. CONCLUSION: People living in poor countries not only face lower life expectancies than those in richer countries but also live a higher proportion of their lives in poor health

Increased ventral striatal volume in college-aged binge drinkers

BACKGROUND Binge drinking is a serious public health issue associated with cognitive, physiological, and anatomical differences from healthy individuals. No studies, however, have reported subcortical grey matter differences in this population. To address this, we compared the grey matter volumes of college-age binge drinkers and healthy controls, focusing on the ventral striatum, hippocampus and amygdala. METHOD T1-weighted images of 19 binge drinkers and 19 healthy volunteers were analyzed using voxel-based morphometry. Structural data were also covaried with Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) scores. Cluster-extent threshold and small volume corrections were both used to analyze imaging data. RESULTS Binge drinkers had significantly larger ventral striatal grey matter volumes compared to controls. There were no between group differences in hippocampal or amygdalar volume. Ventral striatal, amygdalar, and hippocampal volumes were also negatively related to AUDIT scores across groups. CONCLUSIONS Our findings stand in contrast to the lower ventral striatal volume previously observed in more severe forms of alcohol use disorders, suggesting that college-age binge drinkers may represent a distinct population from those groups. These findings may instead represent early sequelae, compensatory effects of repeated binge and withdrawal, or an endophenotypic risk factor

Literature search on risk factors for sarcoma: PubMed and Google Scholar may be complementary sources

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Within the context of a European network dedicated to the study of sarcoma the relevant literature on sarcoma risk factors was collected by searching PubMed and Google Scholar, the two information storage and retrieval databases which can be accessed without charge. The present study aims to appraise the relative proficiency of PubMed and Google Scholar.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Unlike PubMed, Google Scholar does not allow a choice between "Human" and "Animal" studies, nor between "Classical" and other types of studies. As a result, searches with Google Scholar produced high numbers of citations that have to be filtered. Google Scholar resulted in a higher sensitivity (proportion of relevant articles, meeting the search criteria), while PubMed in a higher specificity (proportion of lower quality articles not meeting the criteria, that are not retrieved). Concordance between Google Scholar and PubMed was as low as 8%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study focused just on one topic. Although further studies are warranted, PM and GS appear to be complementary and their integration could greatly improve the search of references in medical research.</p

Acute kidney injury in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK Study: a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study investigated adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and hypothesized that risk factors for AKI would include comorbidities and non-White race. METHODS: A prospective multicentre cohort study was performed using patients admitted to 254 UK hospitals with COVID-19 between 17 January 2020 and 5 December 2020. RESULTS: Of 85 687 patients, 2198 (2.6%) received acute kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Of 41 294 patients with biochemistry data, 13 000 (31.5%) had biochemical AKI: 8562 stage 1 (65.9%), 2609 stage 2 (20.1%) and 1829 stage 3 (14.1%). The main risk factors for KRT were chronic kidney disease (CKD) [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.41: 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.81], male sex (aOR 2.43: 2.18-2.71) and Black race (aOR 2.17: 1.79-2.63). The main risk factors for biochemical AKI were admission respiratory rate >30 breaths per minute (aOR 1.68: 1.56-1.81), CKD (aOR 1.66: 1.57-1.76) and Black race (aOR 1.44: 1.28-1.61). There was a gradated rise in the risk of 28-day mortality by increasing severity of AKI: stage 1 aOR 1.58 (1.49-1.67), stage 2 aOR 2.41 (2.20-2.64), stage 3 aOR 3.50 (3.14-3.91) and KRT aOR 3.06 (2.75-3.39). AKI rates peaked in April 2020 and the subsequent fall in rates could not be explained by the use of dexamethasone or remdesivir. CONCLUSIONS: AKI is common in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and it is associated with a heightened risk of mortality. Although the rates of AKI have fallen from the early months of the pandemic, high-risk patients should have their kidney function and fluid status monitored closely

Internet Gaming Disorder in children and adolescents

The American Psychiatric Association recently included Internet gaming disorder (IGD) as a potential diagnosis, recommending that further study be conducted to help illuminate it more clearly. This paper is a summary of the review undertaken by the IGD Working Group as part of the 2015 National Academy of Sciences Sackler Colloquium on Digital Media and Developing Minds. By using measures based on or similar to the IGD definition, we found that prevalence rates range between ∼1% and 9%, depending on age, country, and other sample characteristics. The etiology of IGD is not well-understood at this time, although it appears that impulsiveness and high amounts of time gaming may be risk factors. Estimates for the length of time the disorder can last vary widely, but it is unclear why. Although the authors of several studies have demonstrated that IGD can be treated, no randomized controlled trials have yet been published, making any definitive statements about treatment impossible. IGD does, therefore, appear to be an area in which additional research is clearly needed. We discuss several of the critical questions that future research should address and provide recommendations for clinicians, policy makers, and educators on the basis of what we know at this time

What Will Happen If We Do Nothing To Control Trachoma: Health Expectancies for Blinding Trachoma in Southern Sudan

Summary measures of population health attempt to express disease burden in terms of a common “currency” and are useful in establishing public health priorities. Disability adjusted life years (DALYs), a health gap measure, have previously been used to estimate burden due to trachoma; however, their methods and results have limitations. This study demonstrates the application of the health expectancies to estimate burden due to trachoma. The study illustrates the future burden associated with doing nothing to control trachoma in Southern Sudan: a substantial proportion of remaining life expectancy spent with trichiasis and low vision or blindness for both men and women, with a disproportionate burden falling on women. The results presented are intuitively meaningful for policy makers and a non-technical audience and compare favourably with other indicators such as mortality and incidence rates or DALYs, which are not generally easily understood. Unless action is taken by further delivery of trachoma control interventions, then populations in Southern Sudan can expect to spend a substantial proportion of their life with low vision or blindness due to trachoma

Failure of A Novel, Rapid Antigen and Antibody Combination Test to Detect Antigen-Positive HIV Infection in African Adults with Early HIV Infection

BACKGROUND: Acute HIV infection (prior to antibody seroconversion) represents a high-risk window for HIV transmission. Development of a test to detect acute infection at the point-of-care is urgent. METHODS: Volunteers enrolled in a prospective study of HIV incidence in four African cities, Kigali in Rwanda and Ndola, Kitwe and Lusaka in Zambia, were tested regularly for HIV by rapid antibody test and p24 antigen ELISA. Five subgroups of samples were also tested by the Determine Ag/Ab Combo test 1) Antigen positive, antibody negative (acute infection); 2) Antigen positive, antibody positive; 3) Antigen negative, antibody positive; 4) Antigen negative, antibody negative; and 5) Antigen false positive, antibody negative (HIV uninfected). A sixth group included serial dilutions from a p24 antigen-positive control sample. Combo test results were reported as antigen positive, antibody positive, or both. RESULTS: Of 34 group 1 samples with VL between 5x105 and >1.5x107 copies/mL (median 3.5x106), 1 (2.9%) was detected by the Combo antigen component, 7 (20.6%) others were positive by the Combo antibody component. No group 2 samples were antigen positive by the Combo test (0/18). Sensitivity of the Combo antigen test was therefore 1.9% (1/52, 95% CI 0.0, 9.9). One false positive Combo antibody result (1/30, 3.3%) was observed in group 4. No false-positive Combo antigen results were observed. The Combo antigen test was positive in group 6 at concentrations of 80 pg/mL, faintly positive at 40 and 20 pg/mL, and negative thereafter. The p24 ELISA antigen test remained positive at 5 pg/mL. CONCLUSIONS: Although the antibody component of the Combo test detected antibodies to HIV earlier than the comparison antibody tests used, less than 2% of the cases of antigen-positive HIV infection were detected by the Combo antigen component. The development of a rapid point-of-care test to diagnose acute HIV infection remains an urgent goal