Moody's Correlated Binomial Default Distributions for Inhomogeneous Portfolios

This paper generalizes Moody's correlated binomial default distribution for homogeneous (exchangeable) credit portfolio, which is introduced by Witt, to the case of inhomogeneous portfolios. As inhomogeneous portfolios, we consider two cases. In the first case, we treat a portfolio whose assets have uniform default correlation and non-uniform default probabilities. We obtain the default probability distribution and study the effect of the inhomogeneity on it. The second case corresponds to a portfolio with inhomogeneous default correlation. Assets are categorized in several different sectors and the inter-sector and intra-sector correlations are not the same. We construct the joint default probabilities and obtain the default probability distribution. We show that as the number of assets in each sector decreases, inter-sector correlation becomes more important than intra-sector correlation. We study the maximum values of the inter-sector default correlation. Our generalization method can be applied to any correlated binomial default distribution model which has explicit relations to the conditional default probabilities or conditional default correlations, e.g. Credit Risk${}^{+}$, implied default distributions. We also compare some popular CDO pricing models from the viewpoint of the range of the implied tranche correlation.Comment: 29 pages, 17 figures and 1 tabl

Sensing electric fields using single diamond spins

The ability to sensitively detect charges under ambient conditions would be a fascinating new tool benefitting a wide range of researchers across disciplines. However, most current techniques are limited to low-temperature methods like single-electron transistors (SET), single-electron electrostatic force microscopy and scanning tunnelling microscopy. Here we open up a new quantum metrology technique demonstrating precision electric field measurement using a single nitrogen-vacancy defect centre(NV) spin in diamond. An AC electric field sensitivity reaching ~ 140V/cm/\surd Hz has been achieved. This corresponds to the electric field produced by a single elementary charge located at a distance of ~ 150 nm from our spin sensor with averaging for one second. By careful analysis of the electronic structure of the defect centre, we show how an applied magnetic field influences the electric field sensing properties. By this we demonstrate that diamond defect centre spins can be switched between electric and magnetic field sensing modes and identify suitable parameter ranges for both detector schemes. By combining magnetic and electric field sensitivity, nanoscale detection and ambient operation our study opens up new frontiers in imaging and sensing applications ranging from material science to bioimaging

Drawing Trees with Perfect Angular Resolution and Polynomial Area

We study methods for drawing trees with perfect angular resolution, i.e., with angles at each node v equal to 2{\pi}/d(v). We show: 1. Any unordered tree has a crossing-free straight-line drawing with perfect angular resolution and polynomial area. 2. There are ordered trees that require exponential area for any crossing-free straight-line drawing having perfect angular resolution. 3. Any ordered tree has a crossing-free Lombardi-style drawing (where each edge is represented by a circular arc) with perfect angular resolution and polynomial area. Thus, our results explore what is achievable with straight-line drawings and what more is achievable with Lombardi-style drawings, with respect to drawings of trees with perfect angular resolution.Comment: 30 pages, 17 figure

Performance of the 2007 WHO Algorithm to diagnose Smear-negative Pulmonary Tuberculosis in a HIV prevalent setting

The 2007 WHO algorithm for diagnosis of smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) including Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) culture was evaluated in a HIV prevalent area of Kenya

Using Bars As Signposts of Galaxy Evolution at High and Low Redshifts

An analysis of the NICMOS Deep Field shows that there is no evidence of a decline in the bar fraction beyond z~0.7, as previously claimed; both bandshifting and spatial resolution must be taken into account when evaluating the evolution of the bar fraction. Two main caveats of this study were a lack of a proper comparison sample at low redshifts and a larger number of galaxies at high redshifts. We address these caveats using two new studies. For a proper local sample, we have analyzed 134 spirals in the near-infrared using 2MASS (main results presented by Menendez-Delmestre in this volume) which serves as an ideal anchor for the low-redshift Universe. In addition to measuring the mean bar properties, we find that bar size is correlated with galaxy size and brightness, but the bar ellipticity is not correlated with these galaxy properties. The bar length is not correlated with the bar ellipticity. For larger high redshift samples we analyze the bar fraction from the 2-square degree COSMOS ACS survey. We find that the bar fraction at z~0.7 is ~50%, consistent with our earlier finding of no decline in bar fraction at high redshifts.Comment: In the proceedings of "Penetrating Bars through Masks of Cosmic Dust: The Hubble Tuning Fork strikes a New Note

Integer and half-integer flux-quantum transitions in a niobium/iron-pnictide loop

The recent discovery of iron-based superconductors challenges the existing paradigm of high-temperature superconductivity. Owing to their unusual multi-orbital band structure, magnetism, and electron correlation, theories propose a unique sign reversed s-wave pairing state, with the order parameter changing sign between the electron and hole Fermi pockets. However, because of the complex Fermi surface topology and material related issues, the predicted sign reversal remains unconfirmed. Here we report a novel phase-sensitive technique for probing unconventional pairing symmetry in the polycrystalline iron-pnictides. Through the observation of both integer and half-integer flux-quantum transitions in composite niobium/iron-pnictide loops, we provide the first phase-sensitive evidence of the sign change of the order parameter in NdFeAsO0.88F0.12, lending strong support for microscopic models predicting unconventional s-wave pairing symmetry. These findings have important implications on the mechanism of pnictide superconductivity, and lay the groundwork for future studies of new physics arising from the exotic order in the FeAs-based superconductors.Comment: 23 pages, including 4 figures and supplementary informatio

Evaluation of Dynamic Cell Processes and Behavior Using Video Bioinformatics Tools

Just as body language can reveal a person’s state of well-being, dynamic changes in cell behavior and morphology can be used to monitor processes in cultured cells. This chapter discusses how CL-Quant software, a commercially available video bioinformatics tool, can be used to extract quantitative data on: (1) growth/proliferation, (2) cell and colony migration, (3) reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, and (4) neural differentiation. Protocols created using CL-Quant were used to analyze both single cells and colonies. Time-lapse experiments in which different cell types were subjected to various chemical exposures were done using Nikon BioStations. Proliferation rate was measured in human embryonic stem cell colonies by quantifying colony area (pixels) and in single cells by measuring confluency (pixels). Colony and single cell migration were studied by measuring total displacement (distance between the starting and ending points) and total distance traveled by the colonies/cells. To quantify ROS production, cells were pre-loaded with MitoSOX Red™, a mitochondrial ROS (superoxide) indicator, treated with various chemicals, then total intensity of the red fluorescence was measured in each frame. Lastly, neural stem cells were incubated in differentiation medium for 12 days, and time lapse images were collected daily. Differentiation of neural stem cells was quantified using a protocol that detects young neurons. CLQuant software can be used to evaluate biological processes in living cells, and the protocols developed in this project can be applied to basic research and toxicological studies, or to monitor quality control in culture facilities

Developing the content of two behavioural interventions : using theory-based interventions to promote GP management of upper respiratory tract infection without prescribing antibiotics #1

Background: Evidence shows that antibiotics have limited effectiveness in the management of upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) yet GPs continue to prescribe antibiotics. Implementation research does not currently provide a strong evidence base to guide the choice of interventions to promote the uptake of such evidence-based practice by health professionals. While systematic reviews demonstrate that interventions to change clinical practice can be effective, heterogeneity between studies hinders generalisation to routine practice. Psychological models of behaviour change that have been used successfully to predict variation in behaviour in the general population can also predict the clinical behaviour of healthcare professionals. The purpose of this study was to design two theoretically-based interventions to promote the management of upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) without prescribing antibiotics. Method: Interventions were developed using a systematic, empirically informed approach in which we: selected theoretical frameworks; identified modifiable behavioural antecedents that predicted GPs intended and actual management of URTI; mapped these target antecedents on to evidence-based behaviour change techniques; and operationalised intervention components in a format suitable for delivery by postal questionnaire. Results: We identified two psychological constructs that predicted GP management of URTI: "Self-efficacy," representing belief in one's capabilities, and "Anticipated consequences," representing beliefs about the consequences of one's actions. Behavioural techniques known to be effective in changing these beliefs were used in the design of two paper-based, interactive interventions. Intervention 1 targeted self-efficacy and required GPs to consider progressively more difficult situations in a "graded task" and to develop an "action plan" of what to do when next presented with one of these situations. Intervention 2 targeted anticipated consequences and required GPs to respond to a "persuasive communication" containing a series of pictures representing the consequences of managing URTI with and without antibiotics. Conclusion: It is feasible to systematically develop theoretically-based interventions to change professional practice. Two interventions were designed that differentially target generalisable constructs predictive of GP management of URTI. Our detailed and scientific rationale for the choice and design of our interventions will provide a basis for understanding any effects identified in their evaluation. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00376142This study is funded by the European Commission Research Directorate as part of a multi-partner program: Research Based Education and Quality Improvement (ReBEQI): A Framework and tools to develop effective quality improvement programs in European healthcare. (Proposal No: QLRT-2001-00657)

Elucidating the aetiology of human Campylobacter coli infections

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

An intervention modelling experiment to change GP's intentions to implement evidence-based practice : using theory-based interventions to promote GP management of upper respiratory tract infection without prescribing antibiotics #2

Background: Psychological theories of behaviour may provide a framework to guide the design of interventions to change professional behaviour. Behaviour change interventions, designed using psychological theory and targeting important motivational beliefs, were experimentally evaluated for effects on the behavioural intention and simulated behaviour of GPs in the management of uncomplicated upper respiratory tract infection (URTI). Methods: The design was a 2 × 2 factorial randomised controlled trial. A postal questionnaire was developed based on three theories of human behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour; Social Cognitive Theory and Operant Learning Theory. The beliefs and attitudes of GPs regarding the management of URTI without antibiotics and rates of prescribing on eight patient scenarios were measured at baseline and post-intervention. Two theory-based interventions, a "graded task" with "action planning" and a "persuasive communication", were incorporated into the post-intervention questionnaire. Trial groups were compared using co-variate analyses. Results: Post-intervention questionnaires were returned for 340/397 (86%) GPs who responded to the baseline survey. Each intervention had a significant effect on its targeted behavioural belief: compared to those not receiving the intervention GPs completing Intervention 1 reported stronger self-efficacy scores (Beta = 1.41, 95% CI: 0.64 to 2.25) and GPs completing Intervention 2 had more positive anticipated consequences scores (Beta = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.46 to 1.98). Intervention 2 had a significant effect on intention (Beta = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.41 to 1.38) and simulated behaviour (Beta = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.19 to 0.74). Conclusion: GPs' intended management of URTI was significantly influenced by their confidence in their ability to manage URTI without antibiotics and the consequences they anticipated as a result of doing so. Two targeted behaviour change interventions differentially affected these beliefs. One intervention also significantly enhanced GPs' intentions not to prescribe antibiotics for URTI and resulted in lower rates of prescribing on patient scenarios compared to a control group. The theoretical frameworks utilised provide a scientific rationale for understanding how and why the interventions had these effects, improving the reproducibility and generalisability of these findings and offering a sound basis for an intervention in a "real world" trial. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00376142This study is funded by the European Commission Research Directorate as part of a multi-partner program: Research Based Education and Quality Improvement (ReBEQI): A Framework and tools to develop effective quality improvement programs in European healthcare. (Proposal No: QLRT-2001-00657)