Local Ugandan Production of Stable 0.2% Chlorhexidine Eye Drops

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a protocol to prepare buffered chlorhexidine (CHX) eye drops (0.2% w/v) in the United Kingdom that can be reproduced at a production facility in Uganda. Buffered CHX eye drops can prevent CHX degradation and improve ocular tolerability during the treatment of fungal keratitis. Methods: Buffered CHX eye drops in amber glass containers were prepared using sodium acetate buffer at pH 5.90 to 6.75. Two commercial CHX solutions and CHX in water were used as controls. Eye drops were stored at 40°C (70% humidity, 21 months) in the United Kingdom and at ambient temperature in Uganda (30 months). High-performance liquid chromatography was used to determine CHX stability over time, and pH was monitored. Sterility was achieved using an autoclave (121°C, 15 minutes) and water bath (100°C, 30 minutes). Results: The pH of acetate-buffered CHX eye drops did not change over 21 months a40°C or at ambient temperature (30 months), whereas the pH of the unbuffered aqueouCHX displayed significant fluctuations, with an increase in acidity. The CHX concentration remained the same in both buffered and unbuffered eye-drop solutions. Eye dropsterilization was successful using an autoclave and a water bath. Conclusions: Stable, sterile, buffered CHX eye drops (pH 6.75) were successfully prepared first in the United Kingdom and then reproducibly in Uganda. This eye drops can be prepared in a hospital or pharmacy setting with limited resources, thus providing a cost-effective treatment for fungal keratitis. Translational Relevance: A protocol has been developed to prepare buffered CHX eydrops in low-and middle-income countries to treat fungal keratitis

Natural radionuclide of Po210 in the edible seafood affected by coal-fired power plant industry in Kapar coastal area of Malaysia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Po²¹⁰can be accumulated in various environmental materials, including marine organisms, and contributes to the dose of natural radiation in seafood. The concentration of this radionuclide in the marine environment can be influenced by the operation of a coal burning power plant but existing studies regarding this issue are not well documented. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the Po²¹⁰concentration level in marine organisms from the coastal area of Kapar, Malaysia which is very near to a coal burning power plant station and to assess its impact on seafood consumers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Concentration of Po²¹⁰was determined in the edible muscle of seafood and water from the coastal area of Kapar, Malaysia using radiochemical separation and the Alpha Spectrometry technique.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The activities of Po²¹⁰in the dissolved phase of water samples ranged between 0.51 ± 0.21 and 0.71 ± 0.24 mBql^-1whereas the particulate phase registered a range of 50.34 ± 11.40 to 72.07 ± 21.20 Bqkg^-1. The ranges of Po²¹⁰activities in the organism samples were 4.4 ± 0.12 to 6.4 ± 0.95 Bqkg^-1dry wt in fish (<it>Arius maculatus</it>), 45.7 ± 0.86 to 54.4 ± 1.58 Bqkg^-1dry wt in shrimp (<it>Penaeus merguiensis</it>) and 104.3 ± 3.44 to 293.8 ± 10.04 Bqkg^-1dry wt in cockle (<it>Anadara granosa</it>). The variation of Po²¹⁰in organisms is dependent on the mode of their life style, ambient water concentration and seasonal changes. The concentration factors calculated for fish and molluscs were higher than the recommended values by the IAEA. An assessment of daily intake and received dose due to the consumption of seafood was also carried out and found to be 2083.85 mBqday^-1person^-1and 249.30 μSvyr^-1respectively. These values are comparatively higher than reported values in other countries. Moreover, the transformation of Po²¹⁰in the human body was calculated and revealed that a considerable amount of Po²¹⁰can be absorbed in the internal organs. The calculated values of life time mortality and morbidity cancer risks were 24.8 × 10^-4and 34 × 10^-4respectively which also exceeded the recommended limits set by the ICRP.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The findings of this present study can be used to evaluate the safety dose uptake level of seafood as well as to monitor environmental health. However, as the calculated dose and cancer risks were found to cross the limit of safety, finding a realistic way to moderate the risk is imperative.</p

Design, development and validation of a model of problem solving for Egyptian Science classes

Educators and policymakers envision the future of education in Egypt as enabling learners to acquire scientific inquiry and problem-solving skills. In this article, we describe the validation of a model for problem solving and the design of instruments for evaluating new teaching methods in Egyptian science classes. The instruments were based on an established model for problem solving and were designed to assess seventh grade students’ problem solving, experimental strategy knowledge, achievement and motivation towards science. The test for assessing students’ knowledge has been developed based on the topic, density and buoyancy which will be taught in seventh grade in a later intervention study. The instruments were partly self-developed and partly adapted from newly performed studies on strategy knowledge and problem solving in Germany. All instruments were translated into Arabic; the translation process and quality control are described. In order to determine the quality of the instruments, 44 students in Egypt completed the questionnaires and tests. The study’s aim to develop and validate the instruments did require an ad hoc and typical sample which was drawn from an accessible population. Accordingly, the characteristics of the sample are described. Data were analysed according to the classical test theory, but to underpin the results, the instruments were additionally analysed using the even stronger Rasch model. The findings demonstrated the reliability of the items and aspects of validity. In addition, this study showed how test items can be successfully developed and adapted in an international study and applied in a different language

P-Type Transparent Cu-Alloyed ZnS Deposited at Room Temperature

All transparent conducting materials (TCMs) of technological practicality are n-type; the inferior conductivity of p-type TCMs has limited their adoption. In addition, many relatively high-performing p-type TCMs require synthesis temperatures &gt;400 °C. Here, room-temperature pulsed laser deposition of copper-alloyed zinc sulfide (CuxZn1-xS) thin films (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.75) is reported. For 0.09 ≤ x ≤ 0.35, CuxZn1-xS has high p-type conductivity, up to 42 S cm−1 at x = 0.30, with an optical band gap tunable from ≈3.0–3.3 eV and transparency, averaged over the visible, of 50%–71% for 200–250 nm thick films. In this range, synchrotron X-ray and electron diffraction reveal a nanocrystalline ZnS structure. Secondary crystalline CuyS phases are not observed, and at higher Cu concentrations, x &gt; 0.45, films are amorphous and poorly conducting. Within the TCM regime, the conductivity is temperature independent, indicating degenerate hole conduction. A decrease in lattice parameter with Cu content suggests that the hole conduction is due to substitutional incorporation of Cu onto Zn sites. This hole-conducting phase is embedded in a less conducting amorphous CuyS, which dominates at higher Cu concentrations. The combination of high hole conductivity and optical transparency for the peak conductivity CuxZn1-xS films is among the best reported to date for a room temperature deposited p-type TCM

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years : an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoea! disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. Findings Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78.4 deaths (70.1-87.1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69.6% (63.1-74.6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13.3% decrease, 11.2-15.5), childhood wasting (9.9% decrease, 9.6-10.2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6.9% decrease, 4-8-8-4). Interpretation Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness

Report on the sixth blind test of organic crystal structure prediction methods.

The sixth blind test of organic crystal structure prediction (CSP) methods has been held, with five target systems: a small nearly rigid molecule, a polymorphic former drug candidate, a chloride salt hydrate, a co-crystal and a bulky flexible molecule. This blind test has seen substantial growth in the number of participants, with the broad range of prediction methods giving a unique insight into the state of the art in the field. Significant progress has been seen in treating flexible molecules, usage of hierarchical approaches to ranking structures, the application of density-functional approximations, and the establishment of new workflows and `best practices' for performing CSP calculations. All of the targets, apart from a single potentially disordered Z' = 2 polymorph of the drug candidate, were predicted by at least one submission. Despite many remaining challenges, it is clear that CSP methods are becoming more applicable to a wider range of real systems, including salts, hydrates and larger flexible molecules. The results also highlight the potential for CSP calculations to complement and augment experimental studies of organic solid forms.The organisers and participants are very grateful to the crystallographers who supplied the candidate structures: Dr. Peter Horton (XXII), Dr. Brian Samas (XXIII), Prof. Bruce Foxman (XXIV), and Prof. Kraig Wheeler (XXV and XXVI). We are also grateful to Dr. Emma Sharp and colleagues at Johnson Matthey (Pharmorphix) for the polymorph screening of XXVI, as well as numerous colleagues at the CCDC for assistance in organising the blind test. Submission 2: We acknowledge Dr. Oliver Korb for numerous useful discussions. Submission 3: The Day group acknowledge the use of the IRIDIS High Performance Computing Facility, and associated support services at the University of Southampton, in the completion of this work. We acknowledge funding from the EPSRC (grants EP/J01110X/1 and EP/K018132/1) and the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013)/ERC through grant agreements n. 307358 (ERC-stG- 2012-ANGLE) and n. 321156 (ERC-AG-PE5-ROBOT). Submission 4: I am grateful to Mikhail Kuzminskii for calculations of molecular structures on Gaussian 98 program in the Institute of Organic Chemistry RAS. The Russian Foundation for Basic Research is acknowledged for financial support (14-03-01091). Submission 5: Toine Schreurs provided computer facilities and assistance. I am grateful to Matthew Habgood at AWE company for providing a travel grant. Submission 6: We would like to acknowledge support of this work by GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, and Vertex. Submission 7: The research was financially supported by the VIDI Research Program 700.10.427, which is financed by The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), and the European Research Council (ERC-2010-StG, grant agreement n. 259510-KISMOL). We acknowledge the support of the Foundation for Fundamental Research on Matter (FOM). Supercomputer facilities were provided by the National Computing Facilities Foundation (NCF). Submission 8: Computer resources were provided by the Center for High Performance Computing at the University of Utah and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), supported by NSF grant number ACI-1053575. MBF and GIP acknowledge the support from the University of Buenos Aires and the Argentinian Research Council. Submission 9: We thank Dr. Bouke van Eijck for his valuable advice on our predicted structure of XXV. We thank the promotion office for TUT programs on advanced simulation engineering (ADSIM), the leading program for training brain information architects (BRAIN), and the information and media center (IMC) at Toyohashi University of Technology for the use of the TUT supercomputer systems and application software. We also thank the ACCMS at Kyoto University for the use of their supercomputer. In addition, we wish to thank financial supports from Conflex Corp. and Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. Submission 12: We thank Leslie Leiserowitz from the Weizmann Institute of Science and Geoffrey Hutchinson from the University of Pittsburgh for helpful discussions. We thank Adam Scovel at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) for technical support. Work at Tulane University was funded by the Louisiana Board of Regents Award # LEQSF(2014-17)-RD-A-10 “Toward Crystal Engineering from First Principles”, by the NSF award # EPS-1003897 “The Louisiana Alliance for Simulation-Guided Materials Applications (LA-SiGMA)”, and by the Tulane Committee on Research Summer Fellowship. Work at the Technical University of Munich was supported by the Solar Technologies Go Hybrid initiative of the State of Bavaria, Germany. Computer time was provided by the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF), which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. Submission 13: This work would not have been possible without funding from Khalifa University’s College of Engineering. I would like to acknowledge Prof. Robert Bennell and Prof. Bayan Sharif for supporting me in acquiring the resources needed to carry out this research. Dr. Louise Price is thanked for her guidance on the use of DMACRYS and NEIGHCRYS during the course of this research. She is also thanked for useful discussions and numerous e-mail exchanges concerning the blind test. Prof. Sarah Price is acknowledged for her support and guidance over many years and for providing access to DMACRYS and NEIGHCRYS. Submission 15: The work was supported by the United Kingdom’s Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) (EP/J003840/1, EP/J014958/1) and was made possible through access to computational resources and support from the High Performance Computing Cluster at Imperial College London. We are grateful to Professor Sarah L. Price for supplying the DMACRYS code for use within CrystalOptimizer, and to her and her research group for support with DMACRYS and feedback on CrystalPredictor and CrystalOptimizer. Submission 16: R. J. N. acknowledges financial support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) of the U.K. [EP/J017639/1]. R. J. N. and C. J. P. acknowledge use of the Archer facilities of the U.K.’s national high-performance computing service (for which access was obtained via the UKCP consortium [EP/K014560/1]). C. J. P. also acknowledges a Leadership Fellowship Grant [EP/K013688/1]. B. M. acknowledges Robinson College, Cambridge, and the Cambridge Philosophical Society for a Henslow Research Fellowship. Submission 17: The work at the University of Delaware was supported by the Army Research Office under Grant W911NF-13-1- 0387 and by the National Science Foundation Grant CHE-1152899. The work at the University of Silesia was supported by the Polish National Science Centre Grant No. DEC-2012/05/B/ST4/00086. Submission 18: We would like to thank Constantinos Pantelides, Claire Adjiman and Isaac Sugden of Imperial College for their support of our use of CrystalPredictor and CrystalOptimizer in this and Submission 19. The CSP work of the group is supported by EPSRC, though grant ESPRC EP/K039229/1, and Eli Lilly. The PhD students support: RKH by a joint UCL Max-Planck Society Magdeburg Impact studentship, REW by a UCL Impact studentship; LI by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre and the M3S Centre for Doctoral Training (EPSRC EP/G036675/1). Submission 19: The potential generation work at the University of Delaware was supported by the Army Research Office under Grant W911NF-13-1-0387 and by the National Science Foundation Grant CHE-1152899. Submission 20: The work at New York University was supported, in part, by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory and the U.S. Army Research Office under contract/grant number W911NF-13-1-0387 (MET and LV) and, in part, by the Materials Research Science and Engineering Center (MRSEC) program of the National Science Foundation under Award Number DMR-1420073 (MET and ES). The work at the University of Delaware was supported by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory and the U.S. Army Research Office under contract/grant number W911NF-13-1- 0387 and by the National Science Foundation Grant CHE-1152899. Submission 21: We thank the National Science Foundation (DMR-1231586), the Government of Russian Federation (Grant No. 14.A12.31.0003), the Foreign Talents Introduction and Academic Exchange Program (No. B08040) and the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 14-43-00052, base organization Photochemistry Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Calculations were performed on the Rurik supercomputer at Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. Submission 22: The computational results presented have been achieved in part using the Vienna Scientific Cluster (VSC). Submission 24: The potential generation work at the University of Delaware was supported by the Army Research Office under Grant W911NF-13-1-0387 and by the National Science Foundation Grant CHE-1152899. Submission 25: J.H. and A.T. acknowledge the support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under the program DFG-SPP 1807. H-Y.K., R.A.D., and R.C. acknowledge support from the Department of Energy (DOE) under Grant Nos. DE-SC0008626. This research used resources of the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility at Argonne National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-06CH11357. This research used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DEAC02-05CH11231. Additional computational resources were provided by the Terascale Infrastructure for Groundbreaking Research in Science and Engineering (TIGRESS) High Performance Computing Center and Visualization Laboratory at Princeton University.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1107/S2052520616007447

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years : an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Despite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates. Methods We used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the health loss associated with LRIs among children younger than 5 years. Findings In 2017, LRIs caused 808 920 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 747 286-873 591) in children younger than 5 years. Since 1990, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths (from 2 337 538 to 808 920 deaths; 65.4% decrease, 61.5-68.5) and in mortality rate (from 362.7 deaths [3304-392.0] per 100 000 children to 118.9 deaths [109.8-128.3] per 100 000 children; 67.2% decrease, 63.5-70.1). LRI incidence dedined globally (32.4% decrease, 27.2-37.5). The percent change in under-5 mortality rate and incidence has varied across locations. Among the risk factors assessed in this study, those responsible for the greatest decrease in under-5 LRI mortality between 1990 and 2017 were increased coverage of vaccination against Haemophilus influenza type b (11.4% decrease, 0.0-24.5), increased pneumococcal vaccine coverage (6.3% decrease, 6.1-6.3), and reductions in household air pollution (8.4%, 6 8-9.2). Interpretation Our findings show that there have been substantial but uneven declines in LRI mortality among countries between 1990 and 2017. Although improvements in indicators of sociodemographic development could explain some of these trends, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors are related to the rates of decline in LRI mortality. No single intervention would universally accelerate reductions in health loss associated with LRIs in all settings, but emphasising the most dominant risk factors, particularly in countries with high case fatality, can contribute to the reduction of preventable deaths

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: Results from the global burden of disease study 2017

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Methods: We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. Findings: In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15–19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: –1·21% [–1·26 to –1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (−0·94% [–1·72 to –0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. Interpretation: Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods: We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings: Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13–1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11–7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5–28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4–39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98–1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16–8·20) deaths and 200 million (185–214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3–21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation: In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation