Likelihood inference for exponential-trawl processes

Integer-valued trawl processes are a class of serially correlated, stationary and infinitely divisible processes that Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen has been working on in recent years. In this Chapter, we provide the first analysis of likelihood inference for trawl processes by focusing on the so-called exponential-trawl process, which is also a continuous time hidden Markov process with countable state space. The core ideas include prediction decomposition, filtering and smoothing, complete-data analysis and EM algorithm. These can be easily scaled up to adapt to more general trawl processes but with increasing computation efforts.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figures, forthcoming in: "A Fascinating Journey through Probability, Statistics and Applications: In Honour of Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen's 80th Birthday", Springer, New Yor

Numerical solutions of random mean square Fisher-KPP models with advection

[EN] This paper deals with the construction of numerical stable solutions of random mean square Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrosky-Piskunov (Fisher-KPP) models with advection. The construction of the numerical scheme is performed in two stages. Firstly, a semidiscretization technique transforms the original continuous problem into a nonlinear inhomogeneous system of random differential equations. Then, by extending to the random framework, the ideas of the exponential time differencing method, a full vector discretization of the problem addresses to a random vector difference scheme. A sample approach of the random vector difference scheme, the use of properties of Metzler matrices and the logarithmic norm allow the proof of stability of the numerical solutions in the mean square sense. In spite of the computational complexity, the results are illustrated by comparing the results with a test problem where the exact solution is known.Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad, Grant/Award Number: MTM2017-89664-PCasabán Bartual, MC.; Company Rossi, R.; Jódar Sánchez, LA. (2020). Numerical solutions of random mean square Fisher-KPP models with advection. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences. 43(14):8015-8031. https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.5942S801580314314FISHER, R. A. (1937). THE WAVE OF ADVANCE OF ADVANTAGEOUS GENES. Annals of Eugenics, 7(4), 355-369. doi:10.1111/j.1469-1809.1937.tb02153.xBengfort, M., Malchow, H., & Hilker, F. M. (2016). The Fokker–Planck law of diffusion and pattern formation in heterogeneous environments. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 73(3), 683-704. doi:10.1007/s00285-016-0966-8Okubo, A., & Levin, S. A. (2001). Diffusion and Ecological Problems: Modern Perspectives. 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(2006). Asymptotic speeds of spread and traveling waves for monotone semiflows with applications. Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics, 60(1), 1-40. doi:10.1002/cpa.20154E. Fitzgibbon, W., Parrott, M. E., & Webb, G. (1995). Diffusive epidemic models with spatial and age dependent heterogeneity. Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - A, 1(1), 35-57. doi:10.3934/dcds.1995.1.35Kinezaki, N., Kawasaki, K., & Shigesada, N. (2006). Spatial dynamics of invasion in sinusoidally varying environments. Population Ecology, 48(4), 263-270. doi:10.1007/s10144-006-0263-2Jin, Y., Hilker, F. M., Steffler, P. M., & Lewis, M. A. (2014). Seasonal Invasion Dynamics in a Spatially Heterogeneous River with Fluctuating Flows. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 76(7), 1522-1565. doi:10.1007/s11538-014-9957-3Faou, E. (2009). Analysis of splitting methods for reaction-diffusion problems using stochastic calculus. Mathematics of Computation, 78(267), 1467-1483. doi:10.1090/s0025-5718-08-02185-6Doering, C. R., Mueller, C., & Smereka, P. (2003). Interacting particles, the stochastic Fisher–Kolmogorov–Petrovsky–Piscounov equation, and duality. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 325(1-2), 243-259. doi:10.1016/s0378-4371(03)00203-6Siekmann, I., Bengfort, M., & Malchow, H. (2017). Coexistence of competitors mediated by nonlinear noise. The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 226(9), 2157-2170. doi:10.1140/epjst/e2017-70038-6McKean, H. P. (1975). Application of brownian motion to the equation of kolmogorov-petrovskii-piskunov. Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics, 28(3), 323-331. doi:10.1002/cpa.3160280302Berestycki, H., & Nadin, G. (2012). Spreading speeds for one-dimensional monostable reaction-diffusion equations. Journal of Mathematical Physics, 53(11), 115619. doi:10.1063/1.4764932Cortés, J. C., Jódar, L., Villafuerte, L., & Villanueva, R. J. (2007). Computing mean square approximations of random diffusion models with source term. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 76(1-3), 44-48. doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2007.01.020Villafuerte, L., Braumann, C. A., Cortés, J.-C., & Jódar, L. (2010). Random differential operational calculus: Theory and applications. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 59(1), 115-125. doi:10.1016/j.camwa.2009.08.061Casabán, M.-C., Cortés, J.-C., & Jódar, L. (2016). Solving linear and quadratic random matrix differential equations: A mean square approach. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 40(21-22), 9362-9377. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2016.06.017Sarmin, E. N., & Chudov, L. A. (1963). On the stability of the numerical integration of systems of ordinary differential equations arising in the use of the straight line method. USSR Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics, 3(6), 1537-1543. doi:10.1016/0041-5553(63)90256-8Sanz-Serna, J. M., & Verwer, J. G. (1989). Convergence analysis of one-step schemes in the method of lines. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 31, 183-196. doi:10.1016/0096-3003(89)90118-5Calvo, M. P., de Frutos, J., & Novo, J. (2001). Linearly implicit Runge–Kutta methods for advection–reaction–diffusion equations. Applied Numerical Mathematics, 37(4), 535-549. doi:10.1016/s0168-9274(00)00061-1Cox, S. M., & Matthews, P. C. (2002). Exponential Time Differencing for Stiff Systems. Journal of Computational Physics, 176(2), 430-455. doi:10.1006/jcph.2002.6995De la Hoz, F., & Vadillo, F. (2016). Numerical simulations of time-dependent partial differential equations. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 295, 175-184. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2014.10.006Company, R., Egorova, V. N., & Jódar, L. (2018). Conditional full stability of positivity-preserving finite difference scheme for diffusion–advection-reaction models. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 341, 157-168. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2018.02.031Kaczorek, T. 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What we talk about when we talk about "global mindset": managerial cognition in multinational corporations

Recent developments in the global economy and in multinational corporations have placed significant emphasis on the cognitive orientations of managers, giving rise to a number of concepts such as “global mindset” that are presumed to be associated with the effective management of multinational corporations (MNCs). This paper reviews the literature on global mindset and clarifies some of the conceptual confusion surrounding the construct. We identify common themes across writers, suggesting that the majority of studies fall into one of three research perspectives: cultural, strategic, and multidimensional. We also identify two constructs from the social sciences that underlie the perspectives found in the literature: cosmopolitanism and cognitive complexity and use these two constructs to develop an integrative theoretical framework of global mindset. We then provide a critical assessment of the field of global mindset and suggest directions for future theoretical and empirical research

Genetic aberrations of c-myc and CCND1 in the development of invasive bladder cancer

Detrusor muscle invasive transitional cell carcinoma is associated with poor prognosis and is responsible for the majority of bladder cancer related deaths. Amplifications of c-myc and CCND1 are associated with detrusor-muscle-invasive transitional cell carcinoma, however, their precise role in driving disease progression is unclear. Fluorescence in situ hybridisation on archival tissue from 16 patients with primary diagnosis of ⩾pT2 transitional cell carcinoma and 15 cases with primary pTa/pT1 disease subsequently progressing to detrusor-muscle-invasion was performed, in the latter group both pre and post muscle invasive events were studied. No patients presenting with ⩾pT2 had amplification of c-myc, two out of 16 (12.5%) had CCND1 amplification. Of patients who developed ⩾pT2, two out of 15 (13.3%) had amplification of c-myc, both in ⩾pT2, five out of 15 (33.3%) had CCND1 amplification, two in pTa/pT1 tumours, three in ⩾pT2 transitional cell carcinomas. In total, two out of 31 (6.5%) of patients' ⩾pT2 TCCs were amplified for c-myc and six out of 31 (19%) were amplified for CCND1. Eighty-seven per cent (40 out of 46) of tumours were polysomic for chromosome 8 and 80% (37 out of 46) were polysomic for chromosome 11 and this reflected the high copy numbers of c-myc and CCND1 observed. In almost all cases an increase in c-myc/CCND1 copy number occurred prior to invasion and persisted in advanced disease. Amplification of CCND1 or alterations in c-myc/CCND1 early in bladder cancer may have clinical relevance in promoting and predicting progression to detrusor-muscle-invasive transitional cell carcinoma

A prospective cohort study comparing the reactogenicity of trivalent influenza vaccine in pregnant and non-pregnant women

Background: Influenza vaccination during pregnancy can prevent serious illness in expectant mothers and provide protection to newborns; however, historically uptake has been limited due to a number of factors, including safety concerns. Symptomatic complaints are common during pregnancy and may be mistakenly associated with reactions to trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV). To investigate this, we compared post-vaccination events self-reported by pregnant women to events reported by non-pregnant women receiving TIV. Methods: A prospective cohort of 1,086 pregnant women and 314 non-pregnant female healthcare workers (HCWs) who received TIV between March-May 2014 were followed-up seven days post-vaccination to assess local and systemic adverse events following immunisation (AEFIs). Women were surveyed by text message regarding perceived reactions to TIV. Those reporting an AEFI completed an interview by telephone or mobile phone to ascertain details. Logistic regression models adjusting for age and residence were used to compare reactions reported by pregnant women and non-pregnant HCWs. Results: Similar proportions of pregnant women and non-pregnant, female HCWs reported ≥1 reaction following vaccination with TIV (13.0% and 17.3%, respectively; OR = 1.2 [95% CI: 0.8-1.8]). Non-pregnant, female HCWs were more likely to report fever or headache compared to pregnant women (OR: 4.6 [95% CI 2.1-10.3] and OR: 2.2 [95% CI 1.0-4.6], respectively). No other significant differences in reported symptoms were observed. No serious vaccine-associated adverse events were reported, and less than 2% of each group sought medical advice for a reaction. Conclusions: We found no evidence suggesting pregnant women are more likely to report adverse events following influenza vaccination when compared to non-pregnant female HCWs of similar age, and in some cases, pregnant women reported significantly fewer adverse events. These results further support the safety of TIV administered in pregnant women

HER2/neu overexpression in the development of muscle-invasive transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder

The mortality from transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the urinary bladder increases significantly with the progression of superficial or locally invasive disease (pTa/pT1) to detrusor muscle-invasive disease (pT2+). The most common prognostic markers in clinical use are tumour stage and grade, which are subject to considerable intra- and interobserver variation. Polysomy 17 and HER2/neu gene amplification and protein overexpression have been associated with more advanced disease. Standardised techniques of fluorescence in situ hybridisation and immunohistochemistry, which are currently applied to other cancers with a view to offering anti-HER2/neu therapies, were applied to tumour pairs comprising pre- and postinvasive disease from 25 patients undergoing treatment for bladder cancer. In the preinvasive tumours, increased HER2/neu copy number was observed in 76% of cases and increased chromosome 17 copy number in 88% of cases, and in the postinvasive group these values were 92 and 96%, respectively (not significantly different P=0.09 and 0.07, respectively). HER2 gene amplification rates were 8% in both groups. Protein overexpression rates were 76 and 52%, respectively, in the pre- and postinvasive groups (P=0.06). These results suggest that HER2/neu abnormalities occur prior to and persist with the onset of muscle-invasive disease. Gene amplification is uncommon and other molecular mechanisms must account for the high rates of protein overexpression. Anti-HER2/neu therapy might be of use in the treatment of TCC

Optimization of Naked DNA Delivery for Interferon Subtype Immunotherapy in Cytomegalovirus Infection

Type I interferon (IFN) gene therapy modulates the immune response leading to inflammatory heart disease following cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in a murine model of post-viral myocarditis. Efficacy of different immunisation protocols for the IFN constructs was influenced by the dose of DNA, subtype choice, combination use, pre-medication, and timing of DNA administration. Optimal efficacy was found with bupivacaine treatment prior to DNA inoculation of 200mg IFN DNA 14 days prior to virus challenge. Maximal antiviral and antimyocarditic effects were achieved with this vaccination schedule. Furthermore, inoculation of synergistic IFN subtypes demonstrated enhanced efficacy when delivered either alone or with CMV gB DNA vaccination in the CMV model. Thus naked DNA delivery of IFN provides an avenue of immunotherapy for regulating herpesvirus-induced diseases

Etiology of Severe Non-malaria Febrile Illness in Northern Tanzania: A Prospective Cohort Study.

The syndrome of fever is a commonly presenting complaint among persons seeking healthcare in low-resource areas, yet the public health community has not approached fever in a comprehensive manner. In many areas, malaria is over-diagnosed, and patients without malaria have poor outcomes. We prospectively studied a cohort of 870 pediatric and adult febrile admissions to two hospitals in northern Tanzania over the period of one year using conventional standard diagnostic tests to establish fever etiology. Malaria was the clinical diagnosis for 528 (60.7%), but was the actual cause of fever in only 14 (1.6%). By contrast, bacterial, mycobacterial, and fungal bloodstream infections accounted for 85 (9.8%), 14 (1.6%), and 25 (2.9%) febrile admissions, respectively. Acute bacterial zoonoses were identified among 118 (26.2%) of febrile admissions; 16 (13.6%) had brucellosis, 40 (33.9%) leptospirosis, 24 (20.3%) had Q fever, 36 (30.5%) had spotted fever group rickettsioses, and 2 (1.8%) had typhus group rickettsioses. In addition, 55 (7.9%) participants had a confirmed acute arbovirus infection, all due to chikungunya. No patient had a bacterial zoonosis or an arbovirus infection included in the admission differential diagnosis. Malaria was uncommon and over-diagnosed, whereas invasive infections were underappreciated. Bacterial zoonoses and arbovirus infections were highly prevalent yet overlooked. An integrated approach to the syndrome of fever in resource-limited areas is needed to improve patient outcomes and to rationally target disease control efforts