Estimation of the basic reproduction number of measles during an outbreak in a partially vaccinated population

From March to July 1996 a measles outbreak occurred in northern Luxembourg with 110 reported cases centered around two primary schools (85 cases) and the surrounding community (25 cases). Eighty four suspected cases were confirmed serologically. Vaccine coverage was estimated from questionnaire-based surveys at the two primary schools to be 70 and 76%, respectively. Vaccine efficacy during the outbreak was estimated to be 94.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 90·4–97·0]. Using the information from the school surveys, we obtained estimates of the basic reproduction number of measles of 7·7 (95% CI 4·4–11·0) and 6·2 (95% CI 3·5–8·9), respectively. Assuming a 95% vaccine efficacy, these estimates correspond to minimal vaccine coverages of 91·6% (95% CI 81·4–95·7) and 88·3% (95% CI 75·5–93·4) which would have been necessary to minimize the chances of a major outbreak occurring. We can confirm that major outbreaks in similar school settings can only be prevented if vaccination coverage exceeds 90%

Fracture strain of LPCVD polysilicon

A polysilicon bridge-slider structure in which one end of the bridge is fixed and the other is connected to a plate sliding in two flanged guideways, is designed and fabricated to study the strain at fracture of LPCVD polysilicon. In the experiments, a mechanical probe is used to push against the plate end, compressing and forcing the bridge to buckle until it breaks. The distance that the plate needs to be pushed to break the bridge is recorded. Nonlinear beam theory is then used to interpret the results of these axially-loaded-bridge experiments. The measured average fracture strain of as-deposited LPCVD polysilicon is 1.72%. High-temperature annealing of the bridge-sliders at 1000°C for 1 h decreases the average fracture strain to 0.93%

Coarse grained force field for the molecular simulation of natural gases and condensates

AbstractThe atomistically-detailed molecular modelling of petroleum fluids is challenging, amongst other aspects, due to the very diverse multicomponent and asymmetric nature of the mixtures in question. Complicating matters further, the time scales for many important processes can be much larger than the current and foreseeable capacity of modern computers running fully-atomistic models. To overcome these limitations, a coarse grained (CG) model is proposed where some of the less-important degrees of freedom are safely integrated out, leaving as key parameters the average energy levels, the molecular conformations and the range of the Mie intermolecular potentials employed as the basis of the model. The parametrization is performed by using an analytical equation of state of the statistical associating fluid theory (SAFT) family to link the potential parameters to macroscopically observed thermophysical properties. The parameters found through this top-down approach are used directly in molecular dynamics simulations of multi-component multi-phase systems. The procedure is exemplified by calculating the phase envelope of the methane–decane binary and of two synthetic light condensate mixtures. A methodology based on the discrete expansion of a mixture is used to determine the bubble points of these latter mixtures, with an excellent agreement to experimental data. The model presented is entirely predictive and an abridged table of parameters for some fluids of interest is provided