Gaussian fields and Gaussian sheets with generalized Cauchy covariance structure

Two types of Gaussian processes, namely the Gaussian field with generalized Cauchy covariance (GFGCC) and the Gaussian sheet with generalized Cauchy covariance (GSGCC) are considered. Some of the basic properties and the asymptotic properties of the spectral densities of these random fields are studied. The associated self-similar random fields obtained by applying the Lamperti transformation to GFGCC and GSGCC are studied.Comment: 32 pages, 6 figure

Modelling the volatility in short and long haul Japanese tourist arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan

This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estimates for the monthly growth in Japanese tourists to New Zealand and Taiwan are different, and indicate that the former has an asymmetric effect on risk from positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude, while the latter has no asymmetric effect. Moreover, there is a leverage effect in the monthly growth rate of Japanese tourists to New Zealand, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of similar magnitude decrease volatility. These empirical results seem to be similar to a wide range of financial stock market prices, so that the models used in financial economics, and hence the issues related to risk and leverage effects, are also applicable to international tourism flows.risk;leverage;conditional volatility;asymmetric effect;tourist arrivals

Asian Crises: Theory, Evidence, Warning-Signals

In July 1997, the economies of East Asia became embroiled in one of the worst financial crises of the postwar period. Yet, prior to the crisis, these economies were seen as models of economic growth experiencing sustained growth rates that exceeded those earlier thought unattainable. Why did the market not anticipate the crises? To this end, we review the Asian financial crisis from two related perspectives - whether the crisis was precipitated by a failure of the real exchange rate to be aligned with its fundamental determinants and/or whether the crisis was precipitated by a divergence of the foreign debt from its optimal path. The first perspective is based on a coherent theory of the equilibrium real exchange rate - the NATREX model - that shows how “misalignments” lead to currency crises. The second perspective is based on a model of optimal foreign debt ratio - derived from stochastic optimal control - which shows why “divergences” lead to debt crises. The important point here is that these models suggest important variables which may serve as warning signals to predict crises.Asian crises, optimal debt, equilibrium exchange rates, NATREX, stochastic optimal control, warning signals of crises, exchange rate misalignment

Determinations of upper critical field in continuous Ginzburg-Landau model

Novel procedures to determine the upper critical field $B_{c2}$ have been proposed within a continuous Ginzburg-Landau model. Unlike conventional methods, where $B_{c2}$ is obtained through the determination of the smallest eigenvalue of an appropriate eigen equation, the square of the magnetic field is treated as eigenvalue problems so that the upper critical field can be directly deduced. The calculated $B_{c2}$ from the two procedures are consistent with each other and in reasonably good agreement with existing theories and experiments. The profile of the order parameter associated with $B_{c2}$ is found to be Gaussian-like, further validating the methodology proposed. The convergences of the two procedures are also studied.Comment: Revtex4, 8 pages, 4 figures, references modified, figures and table embedde

THE SINGAPORE CONSTITUTION AND ITS CRITICS

The latest book about governance in Singapore takes a different tack from recent works in the area; Professor Ho Khai Leong’s The Politics of Policy-Making in Singapore and, more recently, Professor Mauzy’s and Professor Milne’s impressive Singapore Politics under the People’s Action Party. Even should the scholars themselves have rather different views, these latter scholarly works describe the workings of Government in Singapore through a keen and informed engagement with Singapore’s current policies and institutional aspirations. Despite claiming close knowledge of the inner workings of Government