The Detection, Characterization and Tracking of Recent Aleutian Island Volcanic Ash Plumes and the Assessment of Their Impact on Aviation

The Aleutian Islands of Alaska are home to a number of major volcanoes which periodically present a significant hazard to aviation. During summer of 2008, the Okmok and Kasatochi volcanoes experienced moderate eruptive events. These were followed a dramatic, major eruption of Mount Redoubt in late March 2009. The Redoubt case is extensively covered in this paper. Volcanic ash and SO2 from each of these eruptions dispersed throughout the atmosphere. This created the potential for major problems for air traffic near the ash dispersions and at significant distances downwind. The NASA Applied Sciences Weather Program implements a wide variety of research projects to develop volcanic ash detection, characterization and tracking applications for NASA Earth Observing System and NOAA GOES and POES satellites. Chemistry applications using NASA AURA satellite Ozone Monitoring System (OMI) retrievals produced SO2 measurements to trace the dispersion of volcanic aerosol. This work was complimented by advanced multi-channel imager applications for the discrimination and height assignment of volcanic ash using NASA MODIS and NOAA GOES and POES imager data. Instruments similar to MODIS and OMI are scheduled for operational deployment on NPOESS. In addition, the NASA Calipso satellite provided highly accurate measurements of aerosol height and dispersion for the calibration and validation of these algorithms and for corroborative research studies. All of this work shortens the lead time for transition to operations and ensures that research satellite data and applications are operationally relevant and utilized quickly after the deployment of operational satellite systems. Introductio

Swelling of Transported Smoke from Savanna Fires over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean

We use the recently released Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) Version 4.1 (V4) lidar data to study the smoke plumes transported from Southern African biomass burning areas. Significant improvements in the CALIPSO V4 Level 1 calibration and V4 Level 2 algorithms lead to a better representation of their optical properties, with the aerosol subtype improvements being particularly relevant to smoke over this area. For the first time, we show evidence of smoke particles increasing in size, evidenced in their particulate color ratios, as they are transported over the South Atlantic Ocean from the source regions over Southern Africa. We hypothesize that this is due to hygroscopic swelling of the smoke particles and is reflected in the higher relative humidity in the middle troposphere for profiles with smoke. This finding may have implications for radiative forcing estimates over this area and is also relevant to the ORACLES field mission

Swelling of Transported Smoke from Savanna fires over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean

We use the recently released Version 4 (V4) lidar data products from CALIPSO to study the smoke plumes transported from Southern African biomass burning areas. The significant improvements in CALIPSO V4 Level 1 calibration and the V4 Level 2 aerosol subtyping algorithms, the latter being particularly relevant to biomass burning smoke over this area, lead to a better representation of their optical properties. For the first time, we show evidence of smoke particles increasing in size, evidenced in their particulate color ratios, as they are transported over the South Atlantic Ocean from the source regions over Southern Africa. This is likely due to hygroscopic swelling of the smoke particles and is reflected in the higher relative humidity in the middle troposphere for profiles with smoke. This finding may have implications for radiative forcing estimates over this area and is relevant to the ORACLES field mission that is currently underway

Global statistics of liquid water content and effective number concentration of water clouds over ocean derived from combined CALIPSO and MODIS measurements

This study presents an empirical relation that links the volume extinction coefficients of water clouds, the layer integrated depolarization ratios measured by lidar, and the effective radii of water clouds derived from collocated passive sensor observations. Based on Monte Carlo simulations of CALIPSO lidar observations, this method combines the cloud effective radius reported by MODIS with the lidar depolarization ratios measured by CALIPSO to estimate both the liquid water content and the effective number concentration of water clouds. The method is applied to collocated CALIPSO and MODIS measurements obtained during July and October of 2006, and January 2007. Global statistics of the cloud liquid water content and effective number concentration are presented

NOGAPS-ALPHA model simulations of stratospheric ozone during the SOLVE2 campaign

This paper presents three-dimensional prognostic O₃ simulations with parameterized gas-phase photochemistry from the new NOGAPS-ALPHA middle atmosphere forecast model. We compare 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of stratospheric O₃ with satellite and DC-8 aircraft measurements for two cases during the SOLVE II campaign: (1) the cold, isolated vortex during 11-16 January 2003; and (2) the rapidly developing stratospheric warming of 17-22 January 2003. In the first case we test three different photochemistry parameterizations. NOGAPS-ALPHA O₃ simulations using the NRL-CHEM2D parameterization give the best agreement with SAGE III and POAM III profile measurements. 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of polar O₃ initialized with the NASA GEOS4 analyses produce better agreement with observations than do the operational ECMWF O₃ forecasts of case 1. For case 2, both NOGAPS-ALPHA and ECMWF 114-h forecasts of the split vortex structure in lower stratospheric O₃ on 21 January 2003 show comparable skill. Updated ECMWF O₃ forecasts of this event at hour 42 display marked improvement from the 114-h forecast; corresponding updated 42-hour NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic O₃ fields initialized with the GEOS4 analyses do not improve significantly. When NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic O₃ is initialized with the higher resolution ECMWF O₃ analyses, the NOGAPS-ALPHA 42-hour lower stratospheric O₃ fields closely match the operational 42-hour ECMWF O₃ forecast of the 21 January event. We find that stratospheric O₃ forecasts at high latitudes in winter can depend on both model initial conditions and the treatment of photochemistry over periods of 1-5 days. Overall, these results show that the new O₃ initialization, photochemistry parameterization, and spectral transport in the NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP model can provide reliable short-range stratospheric O₃ forecasts during Arctic winter

Nearly a Decade of CALIPSO Observations of Asian and Saharan Dust Properties Near Source and Transport Regions

The lidar on the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission, makes robust measurements of dust and has generated a length of record that is significant both seasonally and inter-annually. We exploit this record to determine a multi-year climatology of the properties of Asian and Saharan dust, in particular seasonal optical depths, layer frequencies, and layer heights of dust gridded in accordance with the Level 3 data products protocol, between 2006-2015. The data are screened using standard CALIPSO quality assurance flags, cloud aerosol discrimination (CAD) scores, overlying features and layer properties. To evaluate the effects of transport on the morphology, vertical extent and size of the dust layers, we compare probability distribution functions of the layer integrated volume depolarization ratios, geometric depths and integrated attenuated color ratios near the source to the same distributions in the far field or transport region. CALIPSO is collaboration between NASA and Centre National D'tudes Spatiales (CNES), was launched in April 2006 to provide vertically resolved measurements of cloud and aerosol distributions. The primary instrument on the CALIPSO satellite is the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), a near-nadir viewing two-wavelength polarization-sensitive instrument. The unique nature of CALIOP measurements make it quite challenging to validate backscatter profiles, aerosol type, and cloud phase, all of which are used to retrieve extinction and optical depth. To evaluate the uncertainty in the lidar ratios, we compare the values computed from dust layers overlying opaque water clouds, considered nominal, with the constant lidar ratio value used in the CALIOP algorithms for dust. We also explore the effects of noise on the CALIOP retrievals at daytime by comparing the distributions of the properties at daytime to the nighttime distributions

Application of high-dimensional fuzzy <i>k</i>-means cluster analysis to CALIOP/CALIPSO version 4.1 cloud–aerosol discrimination

This study applies fuzzy k-means (FKM) cluster analyses to a subset of the parameters reported in the CALIPSO lidar level 2 data products in order to classify the layers detected as either clouds or aerosols. The results obtained are used to assess the reliability of the cloud–aerosol discrimination (CAD) scores reported in the version 4.1 release of the CALIPSO data products. FKM is an unsupervised learning algorithm, whereas the CALIPSO operational CAD algorithm (COCA) takes a highly supervised approach. Despite these substantial computational and architectural differences, our statistical analyses show that the FKM classifications agree with the COCA classifications for more than 94&thinsp;% of the cases in the troposphere. This high degree of similarity is achieved because the lidar-measured signatures of the majority of the clouds and the aerosols are naturally distinct, and hence objective methods can independently and effectively separate the two classes in most cases. Classification differences most often occur in complex scenes (e.g., evaporating water cloud filaments embedded in dense aerosol) or when observing diffuse features that occur only intermittently (e.g., volcanic ash in the tropical tropopause layer). The two methods examined in this study establish overall classification correctness boundaries due to their differing algorithm uncertainties. In addition to comparing the outputs from the two algorithms, analysis of sampling, data training, performance measurements, fuzzy linear discriminants, defuzzification, error propagation, and key parameters in feature type discrimination with the FKM method are further discussed in order to better understand the utility and limits of the application of clustering algorithms to space lidar measurements. In general, we find that both FKM and COCA classification uncertainties are only minimally affected by noise in the CALIPSO measurements, though both algorithms can be challenged by especially complex scenes containing mixtures of discrete layer types. Our analysis results show that attenuated backscatter and color ratio are the driving factors that separate water clouds from aerosols; backscatter intensity, depolarization, and mid-layer altitude are most useful in discriminating between aerosols and ice clouds; and the joint distribution of backscatter intensity and depolarization ratio is critically important for distinguishing ice clouds from water clouds.</p

Treatment of refractory ascites with an automated low-flow ascites pump in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND Refractory ascites (RA) is a frequent complication of cirrhosis, requiring large volume paracentesis or placement of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPSS). The automated low-flow ascites pump (alfapump, Sequana Medical AG, Zurich, Switzerland) is an innovative treatment option for patients with RA. AIM To assess safety and efficacy of this treatment in patients with a contraindication to TIPSS. METHODS Fifty-six patients (43 males; mean age 62 years) from centres in Germany, Switzerland, UK and Spain were included and followed for up to 24 months. Complications, device deficiencies, paracentesis frequency and patient survival were recorded. RESULTS At the time of this analysis, 3 patients completed the 24-month observation period, monitoring of 3 was ongoing, 9 underwent liver transplantation, 17 patients were withdrawn due to serious adverse events and 23 patients died. Most frequently observed technical complication was blocking of the peritoneal catheter. Twenty-three pump-related reinterventions (17 patients) and 12 pump exchanges (11 patients) were required during follow-up. The pump system was explanted in 48% of patients (in 17 patients due to serious adverse events, in 9 at the time of liver transplantation and in 1 due to recovery from RA). Median frequency of paracentesis dropped from 2.17 to 0.17 per month. CONCLUSIONS The alfapump can expand therapeutic options for cirrhotic patients with RA. Continuous drainage of ascites in a closed loop automated system led to significant reduction in paracentesis frequency. Technical and procedural improvements are required to reduce the rate of adverse events and reinterventions. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01532427

Repeat placental growth factor-based testing in women with suspected preterm pre-eclampsia (PARROT-2): a multicentre, parallel-group, superiority, randomised controlled trial

Background: Placental growth factor (PlGF)-based testing has high diagnostic accuracy for predicting pre-eclampsia needing delivery, significantly reducing time to diagnosis and severe maternal adverse outcomes. The clinical benefit of repeat PlGF-based testing is unclear. We aimed to determine whether repeat PlGF-based testing (using a clinical management algorithm and nationally recommended thresholds) reduces adverse perinatal outcomes in pregnant individuals with suspected preterm pre-eclampsia. // Methods: In this multicentre, parallel-group, superiority, randomised controlled trial, done in 22 maternity units across England, Scotland, and Wales, we recruited women aged 18 years or older with suspected pre-eclampsia between 22 weeks and 0 days of gestation and 35 weeks and 6 days of gestation. Women were randomly assigned (1:1) to revealed repeat PlGF-based testing or concealed repeat testing with usual care. The intervention was not masked to women or partners, or clinicians or data collectors, due to the nature of the trial. The trial statistician was masked to intervention allocation. The primary outcome was a perinatal composite of stillbirth, early neonatal death, or neonatal unit admission. The primary analysis was by the intention-to-treat principle, with a per-protocol analysis restricted to women managed according to their allocation group. The trial was prospectively registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN 85912420. // Findings: Between Dec 17, 2019, and Sept 30, 2022, 1253 pregnant women were recruited and randomly assigned treatment; one patient was excluded due to randomisation error. 625 women were allocated to revealed repeat PlGF-based testing and 627 women were allocated to usual care with concealed repeat PlGF-based testing (mean age 32·3 [SD 5·7] years; 879 [70%] white). One woman in the concealed repeat PlGF-based testing group was lost to follow-up. There was no significant difference in the primary perinatal composite outcome between the revealed repeat PlGF-based testing group (195 [31·2%]) of 625 women) compared with the concealed repeat PlGF-based testing group (174 [27·8%] of 626 women; relative risk 1·21 [95% CI 0·95–1·33]; p=0·18). The results from the per-protocol analysis were similar. There were four serious adverse events in the revealed repeat PlGF-based testing group and six in the concealed repeat PlGF-based testing group; all serious adverse events were deemed unrelated to the intervention by the site principal investigators and chief investigator. // Interpretation: Repeat PlGF-based testing in pregnant women with suspected pre-eclampsia was not associated with improved perinatal outcomes. In a high-income setting with a low prevalence of adverse outcomes, universal, routine repeat PlGF-based testing of all individuals with suspected pre-eclampsia is not recommended. // Funding: Tommy's Charity, Jon Moulton Charitable Trust, and National Institute for Health and Care Research Guy's and St Thomas' Biomedical Research Centre