Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures

Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate, probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated behaviourally or mathematically to derive a final group prediction. Mathematical rules (e.g., weighted linear combinations of judgments) provide an objective approach to aggregation. The quality of this aggregation can be defined in terms of accuracy, calibration and informativeness. These measures can be used to compare different aggregation approaches and help decide on which aggregation produces the “best” final prediction. When experts’ performance can be scored on similar questions ahead of time, these scores can be translated into performance-based weights, and a performance-based weighted aggregation can then be used. When this is not possible though, several other aggregation methods, informed by measurable proxies for good performance, can be formulated and compared. Here, we develop a suite of aggregation methods, informed by previous experience and the available literature. We differentially weight our experts’ estimates by measures of reasoning, engagement, openness to changing their mind, informativeness, prior knowledge, and extremity, asymmetry or granularity of estimates. Next, we investigate the relative performance of these aggregation methods using three datasets. The main goal of this research is to explore how measures of knowledge and behaviour of individuals can be leveraged to produce a better performing combined group judgment. Although the accuracy, calibration, and informativeness of the majority of methods are very similar, a couple of the aggregation methods consistently distinguish themselves as among the best or worst. Moreover, the majority of methods outperform the usual benchmarks provided by the simple average or the median of estimates

Smoking and health-related quality of life in English general population: Implications for economic evaluations

Copyright @ 2012 Vogl et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Little is known as to how health-related quality of life (HRQoL) when measured by generic instruments such as EQ-5D differ across smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers in the general population; whether the overall pattern of this difference remain consistent in each domain of HRQoL; and what implications this variation, if any, would have for economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions. Methods: Using the 2006 round of Health Survey for England data (n = 13,241), this paper aims to examine the impact of smoking status on health-related quality of life in English population. Depending upon the nature of the EQ-5D data (i.e. tariff or domains), linear or logistic regression models were fitted to control for biology, clinical conditions, socio-economic background and lifestyle factors that an individual may have regardless of their smoking status. Age- and gender-specific predicted values according to smoking status are offered as the potential 'utility' values to be used in future economic evaluation models. Results: The observed difference of 0.1100 in EQ-5D scores between never-smokers (0.8839) and heavy-smokers (0.7739) reduced to 0.0516 after adjusting for biological, clinical, lifestyle and socioeconomic conditions. Heavy-smokers, when compared with never-smokers, were significantly more likely to report some/severe problems in all five domains - mobility (67%), self-care (70%), usual activity (42%), pain/discomfort (46%) and anxiety/depression (86%) -. 'Utility' values by age and gender for each category of smoking are provided to be used in the future economic evaluations. Conclusion: Smoking is significantly and negatively associated with health-related quality of life in English general population and the magnitude of this association is determined by the number of cigarettes smoked. The varying degree of this association, captured through instruments such as EQ-5D, may need to be fed into the design of future economic evaluations where the intervention being evaluated affects (e.g. tobacco control) or is affected (e.g. treatment for lung cancer) by individual's (or patients') smoking status

Invariant natural killer T cells act as an extravascular cytotoxic barrier for joint-invading Lyme Borrelia

SignificanceInvariant natural killer T cells (iNKT) have been found primarily patrolling inside blood vessels in the liver, where they respond to bacterial glycolipids presented by CD1d on liver macrophages. We show joint iNKT cells are localized outside of blood vessels and respond directly to the joint-homing pathogen, Borrelia burgdorferi, which causes Lyme borreliosis using multichannel spinning-disk intravital microscopy. These iNKT cells interacted with B. burgdorferi at the vessel wall and disrupted its dissemination attempts into joints. Successful penetrance of B. burgdorferi out of the vasculature and into the joint tissue was met by a lethal attack by extravascular iNKT cells through a granzyme-dependent pathway. These results suggest a critical extravascular iNKT cell immune surveillance in joints that functions as a cytotoxic barrier

Beyond Implications and Applications: the Story of ‘Safety by Design’

Using long-term anthropological observations at the Center for Biological and Environmental Nanotechnology in Houston, Texas, the article demonstrates in detail the creation of new objects, new venues and new modes of veridiction which have reoriented the disciplines of materials chemistry and nanotoxicology. Beginning with the confusion surrounding the meaning of ‘implications’ and ‘applications’ the article explores the creation of new venues (CBEN and its offshoot the International Council on Nanotechnology); it then demonstrates how the demands for a responsible, safe or ethical science were translated into new research and experiment in and through these venues. Finally it shows how ‘safety by design’ emerged as a way to go beyond implications and applications, even as it introduced a whole new array of controversies concerning its viability, validity and legitimacy

Myeloid-cell protein tyrosine phosphatase-1B deficiency in mice protects against high-fat diet and lipopolysaccharide-induced inflammation, hyperinsulinemia, and endotoxemia through an IL-10 STAT3-dependent mechanism.

Protein tyrosine phosphatase-1B (PTP1B) negatively regulates insulin and leptin signaling, rendering it an attractive drug target for treatment of obesity-induced insulin resistance. However, some studies suggest caution when targeting macrophage PTP1B, due to its potential anti-inflammatory role. We assessed the role of macrophage PTP1B in inflammation and whole-body metabolism using myeloid-cell (LysM) PTP1B knockout mice (LysM PTP1B). LysM PTP1B mice were protected against lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced endotoxemia and hepatic damage associated with decreased proinflammatory cytokine secretion in vivo. In vitro, LPS-treated LysM PTP1B bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMDMs) displayed increased interleukin (IL)-10 mRNA expression, with a concomitant decrease in TNF-α mRNA levels. These anti-inflammatory effects were associated with increased LPS- and IL-10-induced STAT3 phosphorylation in LysM PTP1B BMDMs. Chronic inflammation induced by high-fat (HF) feeding led to equally beneficial effects of macrophage PTP1B deficiency; LysM PTP1B mice exhibited improved glucose and insulin tolerance, protection against LPS-induced hyperinsulinemia, decreased macrophage infiltration into adipose tissue, and decreased liver damage. HF-fed LysM PTP1B mice had increased basal and LPS-induced IL-10 levels, associated with elevated STAT3 phosphorylation in splenic cells, IL-10 mRNA expression, and expansion of cells expressing myeloid markers. These increased IL-10 levels negatively correlated with circulating insulin and alanine transferase levels. Our studies implicate myeloid PTP1B in negative regulation of STAT3/IL-10-mediated signaling, highlighting its inhibition as a potential anti-inflammatory and antidiabetic target in obesity

Hyperexcitability of the local cortical circuit in mouse models of tuberous sclerosis complex

Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a neurogenetic disorder associated with epilepsy, intellectual disabilities, and autistic behaviors. These neurological symptoms result from synaptic dysregulations, which shift a balance between excitation and inhibition. To decipher the synaptic substrate of hyperexcitability, we examined pan-neuronal Tsc1 knockout mouse and found a reduction in surface expression of a GABA receptor (GABAR) subunit but not AMPA receptor (AMPAR) subunit. Using electrophysiological recordings, we found a significant reduction in the frequency of GABAR-mediated miniature inhibitory postsynaptic currents (GABAR-mIPSCs) but not AMPAR-mediated miniature excitatory postsynaptic currents (AMPAR-mEPSCs) in layer 2/3 pyramidal neurons. To determine a subpopulation of interneurons that are especially vulnerable to the absence of TSC1 function, we also analyzed two strains of conditional knockout mice targeting two of the prominent interneuron subtypes that express parvalbumin (PV) or somatostatin (SST). Unlike pan-neuronal knockout mice, both interneuron-specific Tsc-1 knockout mice did not develop spontaneous seizures and grew into adults. Further, the properties of AMPAR-mEPSCs and GABAR-mIPSCs were normal in both Pv-Cre and Sst-Cre x Tsc1fl/fl knockout mice. These results indicate that removal of TSC1 from all neurons in a local cortical circuit results in hyperexcitability while connections between pyramidal neurons and interneurons expressing PV and SST are preserved in the layer 2/3 visual cortex. Our study suggests that another inhibitory cell type or a combination of multiple subtypes may be accountable for hyperexcitability in TSC. Keywords: Tuberous sclerosis complex; E/I balance; AMPA receptor; GABA receptor; Autism; Epilepsy; mTOR pathwa

N+3 Aircraft Concept Designs and Trade Studies

Appendices A to F present the theory behind the TASOPT methodology and code. Appendix A describes the bulk of the formulation, while Appendices B to F develop the major sub-models for the engine, fuselage drag, BLI accounting, etc