6,768 research outputs found

    Current and potential distributions of three non-native invasive plants in the contiguous USA

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    Biological invasions pose a serious threat to biodiversity, but monitoring for invasive species is time consuming and costly. Understanding where species have the potential to invade enables land managers to focus monitoring efforts. In this paper, we compared two simple types of models to predict the potential distributions of three non-native invasive plants (Geranium robertianum, Hedera spp., and Ilex aquifolium) in the contiguous USA. We developed models based on the climatic requirements of the species as reported in the literature (literature-based) and simple climate envelope models based on the climate where the species already occur (observation-based). We then compared the results of these models with the current species distributions. Most models accurately predicted occurrences, but overall accuracy was often low because these species have not yet spread throughout their potential ranges. However, literature-based models for Geranium and observation-based models for Ilex illustrated potential problems with the methodology. Although neither model type produced accurate predictions in all cases, comparing the two methods with each other and with the current species distributions provided rough estimates of the potential habitat for each species. More importantly, this methodology raised specific questions for further research to increase our understanding of invasion patterns of these species. Although these types of models do not replace more rigorous modeling techniques, we suggest that this methodology can be an important early step in understanding the potential distributions of non-native species and can allow managers of natural areas to be aware of potential invaders and implement early detection

    Dispersal and establishment both limit colonization during primary succession on a glacier foreland

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    Plant colonization can be limited by lack of seeds or by factors that reduce establishment. The role of seed limitation in community assembly is being increasingly recognized, but in early primary succession, establishment failure is still considered more important. We studied the factors limiting colonization on the foreland of Coleman Glacier, Washington, USA to determine the importance of seed and establishment limitation during primary succession. We also evaluated the effects of seed predation, drought and existing vegetation on establishment. We planted seeds of seven species into plots of four different ages and found evidence that both seed and establishment limitation are strong in early succession. We also found that seed and establishment limitation both remained high in later stages of succession. Seed predation reduced establishment for most species and some evidence suggested that drought and existing vegetation also limit establishment. Because both dispersal and establishment failure restrict colonization in recently exposed habitat, late-seral forest species may have a difficult time migrating upward in response to global climate change

    The District economic outlook : responding to labor shortages and overseas problems

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    The Tenth District economy slowed down in 1998, with employment growing marginally below the national average. Despite very tight labor markets, employment growth remained healthy in many sectors. Construction; trade; transportation, communications, and public utilities; and finance, insurance, and real estate---all posted healthy gains. The manufacturing and service sectors, however, turned in weak growth, a result of the Asian financial turmoil and a shortage of skilled workers throughout the district. District agriculture had a difficult year, as commodity prices plunged in the face of rising supplies and weakening demand. A large aid package from Congress late in the year prevented farm incomes from being considerably less than in 1997.> Gazel and Wilkerson discuss why the district economy is likely to slow further in 1999, growing only modestly compared with the recent past. The expected slowdown of the national economy, continued economic weakness in the rest of the world, and very tight labor markets throughout the district are all likely to play major roles in the district economic slowdown. Some sectors of the district economy, such as manufacturing and mining, are likely to be hurt more than others in the near future. The service sector is likely to repeat its weak 1998 performance, while a reduction in consumer spending will slow growth in retail and wholesale trade in 1999. Construction activity may weaken a bit in 1999, and the district farm economy is likely to face a difficult year unless the government acts to further boost subsidies.Federal Reserve District, 10th ; Economic conditions - United States ; Employment (Economic theory) ; Labor supply

    What's hampering job growth in the District's services sector?

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    Employment growth in the Tenth District has fallen behind the national rate in 1999 for the first time in ten years. Although all economic sectors have been experiencing slower job growth, the services sector, due to its size, has played perhaps the most important role in the slowdown of overall employment growth in the district. While services employment elsewhere in the nation continues to grow rapidly, the district has witnessed very little job expansion in services so far in 1999 (Chart 1). In fact, the district services sector has added jobs during the first seven months of this year at less than a third of the rate enjoyed by the nation as a whole.Employment (Economic theory) ; Service industries ; Federal Reserve District, 10th

    Response of Bird Populations to Long-term Changes in Local Vegetation and Regional Forest Cover

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    We analyzed data from a woodland site for a 59-year period to determine whether changes in bird populations are related to changes in the diversity and relative abundance of woody plant species even when vegetation structure, degree of forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape, and regional changes in bird populations are taken into account. Principal component analyses generated vegetation factors encompassing variables such as total basal area, shrub density, basal area of common tree species, and measures of tree and shrub species diversity. We also calculated a forest edge/ forest area index based on GIS analysis of the landscape within 2 km of the study site. Poisson regression models revealed relationships between these covariates and population changes for 19 bird species and for seven groups of species characterized by similar migration strategies or habitat requirements. All groups of habitat specialists showed a positive relationship with the first vegetation factor, which indicates that they declined as total basal area and dominance of oaks and maples increased and as tree and shrub diversity decreased. This suggests that floristic diversity may be important for determining habitat quality. Bird species associated with the shrub layer and with hemlock stands showed positive relationships with the second vegetation factor, suggesting that the recent decline in eastern hemlocks (Tsuga canadensis) because of hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) had an adverse impact on these species. Forest migrants, shrub-layer specialists, long-distance migrants and permanent residents showed negative relationships with the forest edge/forest interior index, indicating that conservation efforts to protect bird communities should take the wider landscape into account. The strongest relationship for most species and species groups was with the first vegetation factor, which suggests that species composition and diversity of trees and shrubs may be especially important in determining abundance of many forest bird species

    Will tightness in Tenth District labor markets result in economic slowdown?

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    Labor markets in the Tenth District are tighter now than at any time in recent memory. The steady fall of unemployment rates in recent years has led many analysts to wonder if future economic growth in the region could be restricted by labor shortages. The district's labor market is actually even tighter than suggested by its unemployment rate of less than 4 percent in 1998 due to the presence of two other significant, but often overlooked, factors: high labor force participation rates and slowing domestic migration flows.> The labor force participation rate, meaning roughly the percentage of the working-age population that is actively taking part in the labor force, has been increasing rapidly in the district this decade and is now well above the national rate. This means the district is likely to have a more difficult time drawing new workers from its own population in the future. Likewise, the district has suffered in recent years from smaller net migration flows from the rest of the country after several years of strong gains following the 1990-91 recession. Thus, at a time when district labor markets need to be drawing more workers from other parts of the country, the flow of new workers is actually drying up.> Gazel and Wilkerson explore whether the growth of jobs in the district is likely to be hampered by slower growth in the labor supply in the presence of tight labor markets. They find that the district's extremely low unemployment rate, combined with a record level of labor force participation and diminishing migration inflows, does indeed reflect an economy that is likely to suffer from slow labor supply growth in the near future.Federal Reserve District, 10th ; Labor market ; Employment (Economic theory)
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