The fate of Earth’s ocean

Questions of how water arrived on the Earth’s surface, how much water is contained in the Earth system as a whole, and how much water will be available in the future in the surface reservoirs are of central importance to our understanding of the Earth. To answer the question about the fate of the Earth’s ocean, one has to study the global water cycle under conditions of internal and external forcing processes. Modern estimates suggest that the transport of water to the surface is five times smaller than water movement to the mantle, so that the Earth will lose all its sea-water in one billion years from now. This straightforward extrapolation of subduction-zone fluxes into the future seems doubtful. Using a geophysical modelling approach it was found that only 27% of the modern ocean will be subducted in one billion years. Internal feedbacks will not be the cause of the ocean drying out. Instead, the drying up of surface reservoirs in the future will be due to the increase in temperature caused by a maturing Sun connected to hydrogen escape to outer space.</p> <p style='line-height: 20px;'><b>Keywords: </b>Surface water reservoir, water fluxes, regassing, degassing, global water cycl

Habitability of Super-Earths: Gliese 581c and 581d

The unexpected diversity of exoplanets includes a growing number of super-Earth planets, i.e., exoplanets with masses smaller than 10 Earth masses. Unlike the larger exoplanets previously found, these smaller planets are more likely to have a similar chemical and mineralogical composition to the Earth. We present a thermal evolution model for super-Earth planets to identify the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The photosynthesis-sustaining habitable zone (pHZ) is determined by the limits of biological productivity on the planetary surface. We apply our model to calculate the habitability of the two super-Earths in the Gliese 581 system. The super-Earth Gl 581c is clearly outside the pHZ, while Gl 581d is at the outer edge of the pHZ. Therefore it could at least harbor some primitive forms of life.Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure; submitted to: Exoplanets: Detection, Formation and Dynamics, IAU Symposium 249, eds. Y.-S. Sun, S. Ferraz-Mello, and J.-L. Zhou (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Causes and timing of future biosphere extinctions

We present a minimal model for the global carbon cycle of the Earth containing the reservoirs mantle, ocean floor, continental crust, biosphere, and the kerogen, as well as the combined ocean and atmosphere reservoir. The model is specified by introducing three different types of biosphere: procaryotes, eucaryotes, and complex multicellular life. During the entire existence of the biosphere procaryotes are always present. 2 Gyr ago eucaryotic life first appears. The emergence of complex multicellular life is connected with an explosive increase in biomass and a strong decrease in Cambrian global surface temperature at about 0.54 Gyr ago. In the long-term future the three types of biosphere will die out in reverse sequence of their appearance. We show that there is no evidence for an implosion-like extinction in contrast to the Cambrian explosion. In dependence of their temperature tolerance complex multicellular life and eucaryotes become extinct in about 0.8–1.2 Gyr and 1.3–1.5 Gyr, respectively. The ultimate life span of the biosphere is defined by the extinction of procaryotes in about 1.6 Gyr

Habitability of Super-Earth Planets around Main-Sequence Stars including Red Giant Branch Evolution: Models based on the Integrated System Approach

In a previous study published in Astrobiology, we focused on the evolution of habitability of a 10 M_E super-Earth planet orbiting a star akin to the Sun. This study was based on a concept of planetary habitability in accordance to the integrated system approach that describes the photosynthetic biomass production taking into account a variety of climatological, biogeochemical, and geodynamical processes. In the present study, we pursue a significant augmentation of our previous work by considering stars with zero-age main sequence masses between 0.5 and 2.0 M_sun with special emphasis on models of 0.8, 0.9, 1.2 and 1.5 M_sun. Our models of habitability consider again geodynamical processes during the main-sequence stage of these stars as well as during their red giant branch evolution. Pertaining to the different types of stars, we identify so-called photosynthesis-sustaining habitable zones (pHZ) determined by the limits of biological productivity on the planetary surface. We obtain various sets of solutions consistent with the principal possibility of life. Considering that stars of relatively high masses depart from the main-sequence much earlier than low-mass stars, it is found that the biospheric life-span of super-Earth planets of stars with masses above approximately 1.5 M_sun is always limited by the increase in stellar luminosity. However, for stars with masses below 0.9 M_sun, the life-span of super-Earths is solely determined by the geodynamic time-scale. For central star masses between 0.9 and 1.5 M_sun, the possibility of life in the framework of our models depends on the relative continental area of the super-Earth planet.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables; submitted to: International Journal of Astrobiolog

Long-term evolution of the global carbon cycle: Historic minimum of global surface temperature at present

We present a minimal model for the global carbon cycle of the Earth containing the reservoirs mantle, ocean floor, continental crust, continental biosphere, and the kerogen, as well as the aggregated reservoir ocean and atmosphere. This model is coupled to a parameterised mantle convection model for describing the thermal and degassing history of the Earth. In this study the evolution of the mean global surface temperature, the biomass, and reservoir sizes over the whole history and future of the Earth under a maturing Sun is investigated. We obtain reasonable values for the present distribution of carbon in the surface reservoirs of the Earth and find that the parameterisation of the hydrothermal flux and the evolution of the ocean pH in the past has a strong influence on the atmospheric carbon reservoir and surface temperature. The different parameterisations give a rather hot as well as a freezing climate on the early Earth (Hadean and early Archaean). Nevertheless, we find a pronounced global minimum of mean surface temperature at the present state at 4.6 Gyr. In the long-term future the external forcing by increasing insolation dominates and the biosphere extincts in about 1.2 Ga. Our study has the implication that the Earth system is just before the point of evolution where this external forcing takes over the main influence from geodynamic effects acting in the past

Reduction of biosphere life span as a consequence of geodynamics

The long-term co-evolution of the geosphere-biosphere complex from the Proterozoic up to 1.5 billion years into the planet's future is investigated using a conceptual earth system model including the basic geodynamic processes. The model focusses on the global carbon cycles as mediated by life and driven by increasing solar luminosity and plate tectonics. The main CO2 sink, the weathering of silicates, is calculated as a function of biologic activity, global run-off and continental growth. The main CO2 source, tectonic processes dominated by sea-floor spreading, is determined using a novel semi-empirical scheme. Thus, a geodynamic extension of previous geostatic approaches can be achieved. As a major result of extensive numerical investigations, the 'terrestrial life corridor', i.e., the biogeophysical domain supporting a photosynthesis-based ecosphere in the planetary past and in the future, can be identified. Our findings imply, in particular, that the remaining life-span of the biosphere is considerably shorter (by a few hundred million years) than the value computed with geostatic models by other groups. The 'habitable-zone concept' is also revisited, revealing the band of orbital distances from the sun warranting earth-like conditions. It turns out that this habitable zone collapses completely in some 1.4 billion years from now as a consequence of geodynamics

Habitability of the Goldilocks Planet Gliese 581g: Results from Geodynamic Models

Aims: In 2010, detailed observations have been published that seem to indicate another super-Earth planet in the system of Gliese 581 located in the midst of the stellar climatological habitable zone. The mass of the planet, known as Gl 581g, has been estimated to be between 3.1 and 4.3 Earth masses. In this study, we investigate the habitability of Gl 581g based on a previously used concept that explores its long-term possibility of photosynthetic biomass production, which has already been used to gauge the principal possibility of life regarding the super-Earths Gl 581c and Gl 581d. Methods: A thermal evolution model for super-Earths is used to calculate the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The habitable zone is determined by the limits of photosynthetic biological productivity on the planetary surface. Models with different ratios of land / ocean coverage are pursued. Results: The maximum time span for habitable conditions is attained for water worlds at a position of about 0.14+/-0.015 AU, which deviates by just a few percent (depending on the adopted stellar luminosity) from the actual position of Gl 581g, an estimate that does however not reflect systematic uncertainties inherent in our model. Therefore, in the framework of our model an almost perfect Goldilock position is realized. The existence of habitability is found to critically depend on the relative planetary continental area, lending a considerable advantage to the possibility of life if Gl 581g's ocean coverage is relatively high. Conclusions: Our results are a further step toward identifying the possibility of life beyond the Solar System, especially concerning super-Earth planets, which appear to be more abundant than previously surmised.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, 1 table; in pres

The habitability of super-Earths in Gliese 581

Aims: The planetary system around the M star Gliese 581 consists of a hot Neptune (Gl 581b) and two super-Earths (Gl 581c and Gl 581d). The habitability of this system with respect to the super-Earths is investigated following a concept that studies the long-term possibility of photosynthetic biomass production on a dynamically active planet. Methods: A thermal evolution model for a super-Earth is used to calculate the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The habitable zone is determined by the limits of biological productivity on the planetary surface. Models with different ratios of land / ocean coverage are investigated. Results: The super-Earth Gl 581c is clearly outside the habitable zone, since it is too close to the star. In contrast, Gl 581d is a tidally locked habitable super-Earth near the outer edge of the habitable zone. Despite the adverse conditions on this planet, at least some primitive forms of life may be able to exist on its surface.Therefore, Gl 581d is an interesting target for the planned TPF/Darwin missions to search for biomarkers in planetary atmospheres.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

Habitable Zones in the Universe

Habitability varies dramatically with location and time in the universe. This was recognized centuries ago, but it was only in the last few decades that astronomers began to systematize the study of habitability. The introduction of the concept of the habitable zone was key to progress in this area. The habitable zone concept was first applied to the space around a star, now called the Circumstellar Habitable Zone. Recently, other, vastly broader, habitable zones have been proposed. We review the historical development of the concept of habitable zones and the present state of the research. We also suggest ways to make progress on each of the habitable zones and to unify them into a single concept encompassing the entire universe.Comment: 71 pages, 3 figures, 1 table; to be published in Origins of Life and Evolution of Biospheres; table slightly revise