Income Prospects and Age at Marriage

In an earlier paper Courtship as a Waiting Game, Mark Bagnoli and I proposed a theory that explained why it is the case that in almost every society and at almost all recorded times, the average age at marriage of men exceeds that of women. An additional prediction of this model was that men who married later in life would turn out to have higher incomes when they reach maturity than those who marry young. The current paper reviews this theory and tests it with U.S. data. Consistent with our theory, we find that there is a strong positive relationship for men between age at marriage and earnings in later life and that no such relationship exists for women.Center for Research on Economic and Social Theory, Department of Economics, University of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/101096/1/ECON080.pd

Recent trends in chronic disease, impairment and disability among older adults in the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To examine concurrent prevalence trends of chronic disease, impairment and disability among older adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed the 1998, 2004 and 2008 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative survey of older adults in the United States, and included 31,568 community dwelling adults aged 65 and over. Measurements include: prevalence of chronic diseases including hypertension, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer, chronic lung disease and arthritis; prevalence of impairments, including impairments of cognition, vision, hearing, mobility, and urinary incontinence; prevalence of disability, including activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The proportion of older adults reporting no chronic disease decreased from 13.1% (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 12.4%-13.8%) in 1998 to 7.8% (95% CI, 7.2%-8.4%) in 2008, whereas the proportion reporting 1 or more chronic diseases increased from 86.9% (95% CI, 86.2%-89.6%) in 1998 to 92.2% (95% CI, 91.6%-92.8%) in 2008. In addition, the proportion reporting 4 or more diseases increased from 11.7% (95% CI, 11.0%-12.4%) in 1998 to 17.4% (95% CI, 16.6%-18.2%) in 2008. The proportion of older adults reporting no impairments was 47.3% (95% CI, 46.3%-48.4%) in 1998 and 44.4% (95% CI, 43.3%-45.5%) in 2008, whereas the proportion of respondents reporting 3 or more was 7.2% (95% CI, 6.7%-7.7%) in 1998 and 7.3% (95% CI, 6.8%-7.9%) in 2008. The proportion of older adults reporting any ADL or IADL disability was 26.3% (95% CI, 25.4%-27.2%) in 1998 and 25.4% (95% CI, 24.5%-26.3%) in 2008.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Multiple chronic disease is increasingly prevalent among older U.S. adults, whereas the prevalence of impairment and disability, while substantial, remain stable.</p

Assessing Predicted HIV-1 Replicative Capacity in a Clinical Setting

HIV-1 replicative capacity (RC) provides a measure of within-host fitness and is determined in the context of phenotypic drug resistance testing. However it is unclear how these in-vitro measurements relate to in-vivo processes. Here we assess RCs in a clinical setting by combining a previously published machine-learning tool, which predicts RC values from partial pol sequences with genotypic and clinical data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. The machine-learning tool is based on a training set consisting of 65000 RC measurements paired with their corresponding partial pol sequences. We find that predicted RC values (pRCs) correlate significantly with the virus load measured in 2073 infected but drug naïve individuals. Furthermore, we find that, for 53 pairs of sequences, each pair sampled in the same infected individual, the pRC was significantly higher for the sequence sampled later in the infection and that the increase in pRC was also significantly correlated with the increase in plasma viral load and with the length of the time-interval between the sampling points. These findings indicate that selection within a patient favors the evolution of higher replicative capacities and that these in-vitro fitness measures are indicative of in-vivo HIV virus load

Tuberculosis in HIV-Negative and HIV-Infected Patients in a Low-Incidence Country: Clinical Characteristics and Treatment Outcomes

BACKGROUND: In Switzerland and other developed countries, the number of tuberculosis (TB) cases has been decreasing for decades, but HIV-infected patients and migrants remain risk groups. The aim of this study was to compare characteristics of TB in HIV-negative and HIV-infected patients diagnosed in Switzerland, and between coinfected patients enrolled and not enrolled in the national Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS AND FINDINGS: All patients diagnosed with culture-confirmed TB in the SHCS and a random sample of culture-confirmed cases reported to the national TB registry 2000-2008 were included. Outcomes were assessed in HIV-infected patients and considered successful in case of cure or treatment completion. Ninety-three SHCS patients and 288 patients selected randomly from 4221 registered patients were analyzed. The registry sample included 10 (3.5%) coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS: the estimated number of HIV-infected patients not enrolled in the SHCS but reported to the registry 2000-2008 was 146 (95% CI 122-173). Coinfected patients were more likely to be from sub-Saharan Africa (51.5% versus 15.8%, P<0.0001) and to present disseminated disease (23.9% vs. 3.4%, P<0.0001) than HIV-negative patients. Coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS were asylum seekers or migrant workers, with lower CD4 cell counts at TB diagnosis (median CD4 count 79 cells/µL compared to 149 cells/µL among SHCS patients, P = 0.07). There were 6 patients (60.0%) with successful outcomes compared to 82 (88.2%) patients in the SHCS (P = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS: The clinical presentation of coinfected patients differed from HIV-negative TB patients. The number of HIV-infected patients diagnosed with TB outside the SHCS is similar to the number diagnosed within the cohort but outcomes are poorer in patients not followed up in the national cohort. Special efforts are required to address the needs of this vulnerable population

Consistency and precision of cancer reporting in a multiwave national panel survey

Abstract Background Many epidemiological studies rely on self-reported information, the accuracy of which is critical for unbiased estimates of population health. Previously, accuracy has been analyzed by comparing self-reports to other sources, such as cancer registries. Cancer is believed to be a well-reported condition. This paper uses novel panel data to test the consistency of cancer reports for respondents with repeated self-reports. Methods Data come from 978 adults who reported having been diagnosed with cancer in at least one of four waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1999-2005. Consistency of cancer occurrence reports and precision of timing of onset were studied as a function of individual and cancer-related characteristics using logistic and ordered logistic models. Results Almost 30% of respondents gave inconsistent cancer reports, meaning they said they never had cancer after having said they did have cancer in a previous interview; 50% reported the year of diagnosis with a discrepancy of two or more years. More recent cancers were reported with a higher consistency and timing precision; cervical cancer was reported more inaccurately than other cancer types. Demographic and socio-economic factors were only weak predictors of reporting quality. Conclusions Results suggest that retrospective reports of cancer contain significant measurement error. The errors, however, are fairly random across different social groups, meaning that the results based on the data are not systematically biased by socio-economic factors. Even for health events as salient as cancer, researchers should exercise caution about the presumed accuracy of self-reports, especially if the timing of diagnosis is an important covariate.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112656/1/12963_2010_Article_108.pd

Estimating Loss to Follow-Up in HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: The Effect of the Competing Risk of Death in Zambia and Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. METHODS AND FINDINGS: HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004-2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings

Social Inequalities of Functioning and Perceived Health in Switzerland–A Representative Cross-Sectional Analysis

Many people worldwide live with a disability, i.e. limitations in functioning. The prevalence is expected to increase due to demographic change and the growing importance of non-communicable disease and injury. To date, many epidemiological studies have used simple dichotomous measures of disability, even though the WHO's International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) provides a multi-dimensional framework of functioning. We aimed to examine associations of socio-economic status (SES) and social integration in 3 core domains of functioning (impairment, pain, limitations in activity and participation) and perceived health. We conducted a secondary analysis of representative cross-sectional data of the Swiss Health Survey 2007 including 10,336 female and 8,424 male Swiss residents aged 15 or more. Guided by a theoretical ICF-based model, 4 mixed effects Poisson regressions were fitted in order to explain functioning and perceived health by indicators of SES and social integration. Analyses were stratified by age groups (15–30, 31–54, ≥55 years). In all age groups, SES and social integration were significantly associated with functional and perceived health. Among the functional domains, impairment and pain were closely related, and both were associated with limitations in activity and participation. SES, social integration and functioning were related to perceived health. We found pronounced social inequalities in functioning and perceived health, supporting our theoretical model. Social factors play a significant role in the experience of health, even in a wealthy country such as Switzerland. These findings await confirmation in other, particularly lower resourced settings

Genetic Diversity of EBV-Encoded LMP1 in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and Implication for NF-Κb Activation

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is associated with several types of cancers including Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). EBV-encoded latent membrane protein 1 (LMP1), a multifunctional oncoprotein, is a powerful activator of the transcription factor NF-κB, a property that is essential for EBV-transformed lymphoblastoid cell survival. Previous studies reported LMP1 sequence variations and induction of higher NF-κB activation levels compared to the prototype B95-8 LMP1 by some variants. Here we used biopsies of EBV-associated cancers and blood of individuals included in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) to analyze LMP1 genetic diversity and impact of sequence variations on LMP1-mediated NF-κB activation potential. We found that a number of variants mediate higher NF-κB activation levels when compared to B95-8 LMP1 and mapped three single polymorphisms responsible for this phenotype: F106Y, I124V and F144I. F106Y was present in all LMP1 isolated in this study and its effect was variant dependent, suggesting that it was modulated by other polymorphisms. The two polymorphisms I124V and F144I were present in distinct phylogenetic groups and were linked with other specific polymorphisms nearby, I152L and D150A/L151I, respectively. The two sets of polymorphisms, I124V/I152L and F144I/D150A/L151I, which were markers of increased NF-κB activation in vitro, were not associated with EBV-associated HL in the SHCS. Taken together these results highlighted the importance of single polymorphisms for the modulation of LMP1 signaling activity and demonstrated that several groups of LMP1 variants, through distinct mutational paths, mediated enhanced NF-κB activation levels compared to B95-8 LMP1