Optimal Dorfman Group Testing For Symmetric Distributions

We study Dorfman's classical group testing protocol in a novel setting where individual specimen statuses are modeled as exchangeable random variables. We are motivated by infectious disease screening. In that case, specimens which arrive together for testing often originate from the same community and so their statuses may exhibit positive correlation. Dorfman's protocol screens a population of n specimens for a binary trait by partitioning it into nonoverlapping groups, testing these, and only individually retesting the specimens of each positive group. The partition is chosen to minimize the expected number of tests under a probabilistic model of specimen statuses. We relax the typical assumption that these are independent and indentically distributed and instead model them as exchangeable random variables. In this case, their joint distribution is symmetric in the sense that it is invariant under permutations. We give a characterization of such distributions in terms of a function q where q(h) is the marginal probability that any group of size h tests negative. We use this interpretable representation to show that the set partitioning problem arising in Dorfman's protocol can be reduced to an integer partitioning problem and efficiently solved. We apply these tools to an empirical dataset from the COVID-19 pandemic. The methodology helps explain the unexpectedly high empirical efficiency reported by the original investigators.Comment: 20 pages w/o references, 2 figure

On classical string configurations

Equations which define classical configurations of strings in $R^3$ are presented in a simple form. General properties as well as particular classes of solutions of these equations are considered.Comment: 10 pages, Latex, no figures, trivial corrections, submitted to Modern Physics Letters

Incidence and public health burden of sunburn among beachgoers in the United States.

The beach environment creates many barriers to effective sun protection, putting beachgoers at risk for sunburn, a well-established risk factor for skin cancer. Our objective was to estimate incidence of sunburn among beachgoers and evaluate the relationship between sunburn incidence and sun-protective behaviors. A secondary analysis, of prospective cohorts at 12 locations within the U.S. from 2003 to 2009 (n = 75,614), were pooled to evaluate sunburn incidence 10-12 days after the beach visit. Behavioral and environmental conditions were cross-tabulated with sunburn incidence. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the association between new sunburn and sun-protective behaviors. Overall, 13.1% of beachgoers reported sunburn. Those aged 13-18 years (16.5%), whites (16.0%), and those at beach locations along the Eastern Seaboard (16.1%), had the highest incidence of sunburn. For those spending ≥5 h in the sun, the use of multiple types of sun protection reduced odds of sunburn by 55% relative to those who used no sun protection (Odds Ratio = 0.45 (95% Confidence Interval:0.27-0.77)) after adjusting for skin type, age, and race. Acute health effects of sunburn tend to be mild and self-limiting, but potential long-term health consequences are more serious and costly. Efforts to encourage and support proper sun-protective behaviors, and increase access to shade, protective clothing, and sunscreen, can help prevent sunburn and reduce skin cancer risk among beachgoers

Milne-Eddington inversion of the Fe I line pair at 630~nm

The iron lines at 630.15 and 630.25 nm are often used to determine the physical conditions of the solar photosphere. A common approach is to invert them simultaneously under the Milne-Eddington approximation. The same thermodynamic parameters are employed for the two lines, except for their opacities, which are assumed to have a constant ratio. We aim at investigating the validity of this assumption, since the two lines are not exactly the same. We use magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the quiet Sun to examine the behavior of the ME thermodynamic parameters and their influence on the retrieval of vector magnetic fields and flow velocities. Our analysis shows that the two lines can be coupled and inverted simultaneously using the same thermodynamic parameters and a constant opacity ratio. The inversion of two lines is significantly more accurate than single-line inversions because of the larger number of observables.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics (Research Note