Black swans or dragon kings? A simple test for deviations from the power law

We develop a simple test for deviations from power law tails, which is based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function. We use this test to answer the question whether great natural disasters, financial crashes or electricity price spikes should be classified as dragon kings or 'only' as black swans

Psychological morbidity of celiac disease: a review of the literature

BACKGROUND: Celiac disease has been linked to decreased quality of life and certain mood disorders. The effect of the gluten free diet on these psychological aspects of the disease is still unclear. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this article is to review the literature on psychological morbidity of celiac disease. METHODS: We performed a PubMed search for the time period from 1900 until June 1, 2014, to identify papers on psychological aspects of celiac disease looking specifically at quality of life, anxiety, depression and fatigue. RESULTS: Anxiety, depression and fatigue are common complaints in patients with untreated celiac disease and contribute to lower quality of life. While aspects of these conditions may improve within a few months after starting a gluten-free diet, some patients continue to suffer from significant psychological morbidity. Psychological symptoms may affect the quality of life and the dietary adherence. CONCLUSION: Health care professionals need to be aware of the ongoing psychological burden of celiac disease in order to support patients with this disease

Våtmarker som fiskevårdsåtgärd vid kusten: Utvärdering av restaurerade våtmarkers effekt på fiskreproduktion och ekosystemet längs Östersjökusten

Många av Östersjöns kustfiskar är av sötvattenursprung och fortplantar sig i grunda vikar och kustnära våtmarker. Historiska utdikningar, kustexploatering och övergödning har lett till förluster av fiskens lek- och uppväxtområden, vilket tillsammans med fiske bidragit till minskande bestånd av exempelvis gädda och abborre. För att motverka nedgången har flera förvaltningsåtgärder initierats. Ungefär 100 våtmarker har restaurerats längs svenska ostkusten för att gynna reproduktionen av gädda och abborre. I samma syfte har fiskvandringshinder i kustmynnande vattendrag tagits bort på cirka 40 platser. Det fåtal uppföljningar som genomförts visar att sådana åtgärder har en god potential att bidra till stärkta kustbestånd av gädda och abborre. Mängden gäddyngel i kustvattnen utanför våtmarkerna tenderar att öka kraftigt efter åtgärderna, medan ingen tydlig förändring kan ses för mängden abborryngel. Det är dock stor variation i utfallet. En studie indikerar även en tydlig lokal ökning av gäddbestånden i kustvattnen utanför våtmarkerna. Sammanställningen visar även att borttagning av vandringshinder i kustmynnande vattendrag förbundna med olika sjösystem kan vara en effektivare metod än att restaurera våtmarker för attgynna abborre, vilket bör undersökas vidare. Det finns få studier som specifikt undersökt om åtgärderna kan ge så stark effekt på rovfiskbestånden att det indirekt påverkar resten av födoväven och ekosystemet. Det finns en potential för sådan påverkan. Men ökningen av rovfisk till följd av de åtgärdade våtmarkerna har i dagsläget inte varit tillräckligt kraftig för att leda till tydliga ekosystemeffekter, så som mindre mängd bytesfisk och påväxtalger. Även om våtmarker kan ge en lokal ökning av mängden fisk måste fler och kompletterande åtgärder till för att stärka kustens rovfiskbestånd. Åtgärderna bör utformas som en del av en tydligt samordnad och långsiktig förvaltning av kust och hav. Förutom en starkare reglering av kustfisket behövs exempelvis bättre skydd mot exploatering av fiskens lek- och uppväxtområden. Även lokal reduktion av mängden gråsäl och storskarv kan vara en möjlig åtgärd i områden där dessa rovdjur medför hög dödlighet på gädda och abborre. Utformningen av fiskeriförförvaltningen i öppet hav måste ha en mer rigid tillämpning av ekosystemansatsen och beakta konsekvenser för kustens ekosystem. Exempelvis tyder mycket på att förändringar i utsjöns fiskbestånd är en viktig bidragande orsak till att storspigg har ökat kraftigt de senaste decennierna. Storspiggen migrerar mellan utsjö och kust. Eftersom den äter gädd- och abborryngel minskar möjligheten att med lokala åtgärder stärka rovfiskbestånden vid kusten. Sammanställningen visar på en bristfällig koordinering och uppföljningav det senaste decenniets fiskevårdsåtgärder. För att skapa en bättre kunskapsbas för framtida förvaltningsbeslut finns därför ett behov av fler och samordnade mångåriga uppföljningar av åtgärder på såväl yngelproduktionoch lokala fiskbestånd som på kustekosystemet

Movement asymmetries in horses presented for prepurchase or lameness examination

Background The increasing popularity of objective gait analysis makes application in prepurchase examinations (PPE) a logical next step. Therefore, there is a need to have more understanding of asymmetry during a PPE in horses described on clinical evaluation as subtly lame.Objectives The objective of this study is to objectively compare asymmetry in horses raising minor vet concerns in a PPE and in horses raising major vet concerns with that found in horses presented with subtle single-limb lameness, and to investigate the effect of age/discipline on the clinicians' interpretation of asymmetry on the classification of minor vet concerns in a PPE.Study Design Clinical case-series.Methods Horses presented for PPE (n = 98) or subjectively evaluated as single limb low-grade (1-2/5) lame (n = 24, 13 forelimb lame, 11 hindlimb lame), from the patient population of a single clinic, were enrolled in the study provided that owners were willing to participate. Horses undergoing PPE were assigned a classification of having minor vet concerns (n = 84) or major vet concerns (n = 14) based on findings during the dynamic-orthopaedic part of the PPE. Lame horses were only included if pain-related lameness was confirmed by an objective improvement after diagnostic analgesia exceeding daily variation determined for equine symmetry parameters using optical motion capture. Clinical evaluation was performed by six different clinicians, each with >= 8 years of equine orthopaedic experience. Vertical movement symmetry was measured using optical motion capture, simultaneously with the orthopaedic examination. Data were analysed using previously described parameters and mixed model analysis and least squares means were used to calculate differences between groups.Results There was no effect of age or discipline on the levels of asymmetry within PPE horses raising minor vet concerns. MinDiff and RUD of the head discriminated between forelimb lame and PPE horses raising minor vet concerns; MinDiff, MaxDiff, RUD of the Pelvis, HHDswing and HHDstance did so for hindlimb lameness. Two lameness patterns differentiated both forelimb and hindlimb lame from PPE horses with minor vet concerns: RUD Poll + MinDiff Withers - RUD Pelvis and RUD Pelvis + RUD Poll - MinDiff Withers. Correcting for vertical range of motion enabled differentiation of PPE horses with minor vet concerns from PPE horses with major vet concerns.Main Limitations Objective data only based on trot on soft surface, limited number of PPE horses with major vet concerns.Conclusions Combinations of kinematic parameters discriminate between PPE horses with minor vet concerns and subtly lame horses, though overlap exists

A Review of Direct Neck Measurement in Occupational Settings

No guidelines are available to orient researchers on the availability and applications of equipment and sensors for recording precise neck movements in occupational settings. In this study reports on direct measurements of neck movements in the workplace were reviewed. Using relevant keywords two independent reviewers searched for eligible studies in the following databases: Cinahal, Cochrane, Embase, Lilacs, PubMed, MEDLINE, PEDro, Scopus and Web of Science. After applying the inclusion criteria, 13 articles on direct neck measurements in occupational settings were retrieved from among 33,666 initial titles. These studies were then methodologically evaluated according to their design characteristics, exposure and outcome assessment, and statistical analysis. The results showed that in most of the studies the three axes of neck movement (flexion-extension, lateral flexion and rotation) were not simultaneously recorded. Deficiencies in available equipment explain this flaw, demonstrating that sensors and systems need to be improved so that a true understanding of real occupational exposure can be achieved. Further studies are also needed to assess neck movement in those who perform heavy-duty work, such as nurses and electricians, since no report about such jobs was identified

Values of natural and human-made wetlands: A meta-analysis

The values of goods and services provided by wetland ecosystems are examined through a meta-analysis of an expanded database of wetland value estimates and with a focus on human-made wetlands. This study extends and improves upon previous meta-analyses of the wetland valuation literature in terms of the number of observations, geographical coverage, wetland class and integrity, and the measurement of the effects of scarcity and anthropogenic pressure. We find that water quality improvement, nonconsumptive recreation, and provision of natural habitat and biodiversity are highly valued services. Substitution effects are observed through the negative correlation between values and abundance of other wetlands. Wetland values are found to increase with anthropogenic pressure. An extended metaregression model with cross effects shows that the valuation of specific services varies with the type of wetland producing them. Human-made wetlands are highly valued for biodiversity enhancement, water quality improvement, and flood control