The Dynamic Effects of Open-Space Conservation Policies on Residential Development Density

Recent economic analyses emphasize that designated open-space increases the rents on neighboring residential land, and likewise, the probability of undeveloped land converting to residential uses. This paper addresses a different question: What is the effect of local open space conservation on the rate of growth in the density of existing residential land? The analysis is relevant for exurban development and also for remote lakeshore development, where shoreline development density can rapidly increase over time and open-space policies are often advocated as a way to protect ecosystems by reducing development. A discrete choice econometric model of lakeshore development is estimated with a unique parcel-level spatial-temporal dataset, using maximum simulated likelihood to account for i) the panel structure of the data, ii) unobserved spatial heterogeneity, and iii) sample selection resulting from correlated unobservables. Results indicate that, contrary to the intuition derived from the current literature, local open space conservation policies do not increase the rate of growth in residential development density, and some open space conservation policies may reduce the rate of growth in residential development density. This is consistent with land-value complementarity between local open space and parcel size. Spatially-explicit simulations at the landscape scale examine the relative effects of conservation policies on the time path of development.

Climate change and asset prices: hedonic estimates for North American ski resorts

We use a hedonic framework to estimate and simulate the impact of global warming on real estate prices at North American ski resorts. To do so, we combine data on resort-area housing prices from two sources--data on average prices for U.S. Census tracts across a broad swath of the western U.S. and data on individual home sales for four markets in the western U.S. and Canada, each available over multiple decades--with detailed weather data and characteristics of ski resorts in those areas. Our OLS and fixed-effects models of changes in house prices with respect to medium-run changes in the share of snowfall in winter precipitation yield precise and consistent estimates of positive snowfall effects on housing values in both data sources. We use our estimates to simulate the impact of likely climate shifts on house prices in coming decades and find substantial variation across resort areas based on climatic characteristics such as longitude, elevation, and proximity to the Pacific Ocean. Resorts that are unfavorably located face likely large negative effects on home prices due to warming, unless adaptive measures are able to compensate for the deterioration of conditions in the ski industry.Environmental protection ; Housing - Prices ; Skis and skiing

Characteristics of farms applying for cannabis cultivation permits

Cannabis producers in California can now participate in a regulated supply chain — but little is known, despite considerable speculation, about which types of producers are likely to seek legal status. Growers' decisions about joining the legal market are central to questions about how formalization will transform cannabis production in California, and in particular whether small farms, which were encouraged under Proposition 64, can remain part of the industry. We combine data on the location and characteristics of cannabis farms in 2012 and 2016 with applications for cultivation permits from 2018 to investigate farm characteristics associated with cannabis formalization in Humboldt County. We find strong evidence that the farms most likely to start the permit process are larger, existed in 2012 prior to the start of the “green rush” and expanded at greater rates between 2012 and 2016. The evidence is consistent with concerns that formalization of the cannabis industry may lead to industry consolidation, as has been the trend in California's agricultural and timber industries more broadly

Perceptions of cannabis among Humboldt County timberland and ranchland owners

Cannabis is often grown on agricultural and forest lands in California, but little is known about the adjustments that traditional agriculture and timber producers are making to their livelihoods as cannabis becomes legal under state law. Our goal in this research was to better understand how larger landowners, whose families have often produced timber and cattle for generations, are experiencing increased cannabis production in their areas — and also to better understand these landowners' perceptions of the impacts of cannabis, whether positive or negative, on their communities. To accomplish this, we surveyed landowners who owned at least 500 acres in Humboldt County, an area that — more than 40 years ago — became one of the first California counties to begin experiencing expansive cannabis cultivation. Of the 211 landowners we invited to complete a survey, 71 responded, providing insights into their experiences with and perceptions of cannabis production. Many survey respondents reported illegal cultivation on their properties, problems with shared roads and other direct negative effects of cannabis production. Most landowners also reported that cannabis production has increased the cost of labor, though they acknowledge that it has increased the value of their property as well. Survey respondents, however, have not changed their views of cannabis with legalization. The findings of this study illustrate some of the challenges involved in developing land use ordinances and other policies that can support multiple industries whose interests may be in competition

Characterizing the sectoral development of cities

Previous research has identified a predictive model of how a nation’s distribution of gross domestic product (GDP) among agriculture (a), industry (i), and services (s) changes as a country develops. Here we use this national model to analyze the composition of GDP for US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) over time. To characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the sectors in the course of economic development we explore a simple system of differential equations proposed in the country-level model. Fitting the model to more than 120 MSAs we find that according to the obtained parameters MSAs can be classified into 6 groups (consecutive, high industry, re-industrializing; each of them also with reversed development direction). The consecutive transfer (a → i → s) is common but does not represent all MSAs examined. At the 95% confidence level, 40% of MSAs belong to types exhibiting an increasing share of GDP from agriculture. In California, such MSAs, which we classify as part of an agriculture renaissance, are found in the Central Valley

Aligning biodiversity conservation and agricultural production in heterogeneous landscapes

Understanding the trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and agricultural production has become a fundamental question in sustainability science. Substantial research has focused on how species’ populations respond to agricultural intensification, with the goal to understand whether conservation policies that spatially separate agriculture and conservation or, alternatively, integrate the two are more beneficial. Spatial heterogeneity in both species abundance and agricultural productivity have been largely left out of this discussion, although these patterns are ubiquitous from local to global scales due to varying land capacity. Here, we address the question of how to align agricultural production and biodiversity conservation in heterogeneous landscapes. Using model simulations of species abundance and agricultural yields, we show that trade-offs between agricultural production and species’ abundance can be reduced by minimizing the cost (in terms of species abundance) of agricultural production. We find that when species’ abundance and agricultural yields vary across landscapes, the optimal strategy to minimize trade-offs is rarely pure land sparing or land sharing. Instead, landscapes that combine elements of both strategies are optimal. Additionally, we show how the reference population of a species is defined has important influences on optimization results. Our findings suggest that in the real world, understanding the impact of heterogeneous land capacity on biodiversity and agricultural production is crucial to designing multi-use landscapes that jointly maximize conservation and agricultural benefits.Fil: Butsic, Van. University of California at Berkeley; Estados Unidos. Berkeley University; Estados UnidosFil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Universität zu Berlin; AlemaniaFil: Pallud, Leo. ENSTA ParisTech; FranciaFil: Helmstedt, Kate J.. Queensland University of Technology; AustraliaFil: Macchi, Leandro. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Universität zu Berlin; AlemaniaFil: Potts, Matthew D.. University of California at Berkeley; Estados Unido

Land sparing versus land sharing:Moving forward

To address the challenges of biodiversity conservation and commodity production, a framework has been proposed that distinguishes between the integration (land sharing) and separation (land sparing) of conservation and production. Controversy has arisen around this framework partly because many scholars have focused specifically on food production rather than more encompassing notions such as land scarcity or food security. Controversy further surrounds the practical value of partial trade-off analyses, the ways in which biodiversity should be quantified, and a series of scale effects that are not readily accounted for. We see key priorities for the future in (1) addressing these issues when using the existing framework, and (2) developing alternative, holistic ways to conceptualise challenges related to food, biodiversity, and land scarcity

Ownership characteristics and crop selection in California cropland

Land ownership is one of the primary determinants of how agricultural land is used, and property size has been shown to drive many land use decisions. Land ownership information is also key to understanding food production systems and land fragmentation, and in targeting outreach materials to improve agricultural production and conservation practices. Using a parcel dataset containing all 58 California counties, we describe the characteristics of cropland ownership across California. The largest 5% of properties — with “property” defined as all parcels owned by a given landowner — account for 50.6% of California cropland, while the smallest 84% of properties account for 25% of cropland. Cropland ownership inequality (few large properties, many small properties) was greatest in Kings, Kern and Contra Costa counties and lowest in Mendocino, Napa and Santa Clara counties. Of crop types, rice properties had the largest median size, while properties with orchard trees had the smallest median sizes. Cluster analysis of crop mixes revealed that properties with grapes, rice, almonds and alfalfa/hay tended to be planted to individual crops, while crops such as grains, tomatoes and vegetables were more likely to be mixed within a single property. Analyses of cropland ownership patterns can help researchers prioritize outreach efforts and tailor research to stakeholders' needs

Using InVEST to assess ecosystem services on conserved properties in Sonoma County, CA

Purchases of private land for conservation are common in California and represent an alternative to regulatory land-use policies for constraining land use. The retention or enhancement of ecosystem services may be a benefit of land conservation, but that has been difficult to document. The InVEST toolset provides a practical, low-cost approach to quantifying ecosystem services. Using the toolset, we investigated the provision of ecosystem services in Sonoma County, California, and addressed three related questions. First, do lands protected by the Sonoma County Agricultural Preservation and Open Space District (a publicly funded land conservation program) have higher values for four ecosystem services — carbon storage, sediment retention, nutrient retention and water yield — than other properties? Second, how do the correlations among these services differ across protected versus non-protected properties? Third, what are the strengths and weaknesses of using the InVEST toolset to quantify ecosystem services at the county scale? We found that District lands have higher service values for carbon storage, sediment retention and water yield than adjacent properties and properties that have been developed to more intensive uses in the last 10 years. Correlations among the ecosystem services differed greatly across land-use categories, and these differences were driven by a combination of soil, slope and land use. While InVEST provided a low-cost, clearly documented way to evaluate ecosystem services at the county scale, there is no ready way to validate the results